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翻译： somehacker 空调贝 蕤蕤蕤 莫莫头上草 永不永不苍老
校对： emiliehe 总监： 可乐嘻嘻 后期： fish_w_89
2008年全球经济危机 导致几百万人倾家荡产 失去工作 流离失所
本片为您讲述事件始末
冰岛
人口: 320000
国内生产总值: 130亿美元
银行业损失:1000亿美元
冰岛是一个稳定的民主化国家 生活水准很高 Iceland is a stable democracy with the high standard of living
直到最近 and until recently
极低的就业率和政府负债改变了这一事实 extremely low unemployment and government debt
我们具备现代社会的一切基础设施 We had the complete infrastructure of a modern society:
清洁能源 食物生产 clean energy, food production,
配额制管理的捕鱼业 fisheries with a quota system to manage them
良好的医疗服务以及教育 Good healthcare and good education,
古鲁菲·索伊加 冰岛大学经济学教授
空气清新 犯罪率低 clean air, not much crime,
很适宜人居 It's good place for families to live
那时候简直是空前的好 We had almost end of history status
安德里·玛戈南森 作家 电影制片人
但2000年 But in 2000 Iceland
冰岛政府开始推行大规模放松管制政策 government began a broad policy of deregulation
这种政策将造成灾难性后果 that would have disastrous consequences.
先是对环境 后是对经济 First for the environment and then for the economy
一开始 他们允许像美铝这类跨国公司 They started by allowing multinational corporations like Alcova
建造大型炼铝厂 to build giant aluminum smelting plants
大量开发地热和水电能源 and exploit Iceland's natural geothermal and hydroelectric energy sources
冰岛高地上那些风景优美 Many of the most beautiful areas in the highlands
艳丽如画的地区往往富含地热能源 with the most spectacular colors are geothermal
所谓因果报应 So nothing comes without consequences.
与此同时政府还将 At the same time the government privatized
冰岛最大的三家银行私有化 Iceland's three largest banks
最终使得冰岛彻底成为 The result was one of the purest experiments
放松金融管制的实验场 in financial deregulation ever conducted
2008年9月
当时金融独大 Finance took over and uh,
基本毁了这个国家 more or less wrecked the place
五年之间 这三家小银行 In a 5 year period this three tiny banks
在之前从未做过境外操作的情况下 which have never operated outside of Island
借入了1200亿美元 borrowed $120 billion
是冰岛生产总值的十倍 ten time the size of Iceland's economy
银行家因此置身银山 The bankers showered money on themselves
同时惠及他们的朋友 each other and their friends
当时泡沫巨大 There was a massive bubble
股价以九倍系数增长 stock prices went up by a factor of nine,
房价涨幅超过百分之百 house prices more than doubled.
冰岛的泡沫经济使部分人发达起来 Iceland bubble gave rise to people
冰岛大型零售经营商和投资公司Baugur财团首席执行官(CEO)
其中就有扬·艾斯格·约翰森 like Jon Asgeir Johannesson
他从银行借了几十亿美元 He borrowed billions from the banks
在伦敦投机高端零售业 to buy up high-end retail businesses in London
他还买了带条纹的私人飞机 He also bought a pinstriped private jet,
4千万的游艇 a $40 million yacht
价格: 25000000 维护费: 19493 首付: 20%
还有一间曼哈顿顶层公寓 and a Manhattan penthouse
那会的报纸头条总是 Newspapers always had headlines:
这个百万富翁在英国 芬兰 this millionaire bought this company
安德里·玛戈南森 作家 电影制片人
法国或是其他地方收购某公司 in UK or in Finland or in France or wherever
而不说这位百万富翁是从冰岛本国银行 Instead of saying this millionaire took a billion dollars loan
贷款十亿美元 to buy this company
来收购这家公司 and it took it from your local bank
银行还发行了货币市场基金 The banks set up money market funds
并鼓励储户 and the banks advised deposit-holders to
取出存款 投入货币市场基金 withdraw money and put them in a money market funds
一种欺骗性投资运作 吸引投资者不断投入但最后以项目崩溃为由卷走资金
庞氏骗局就是尽量搜刮 不是吗 The Ponzi scheme needed everything it could, huh?
美国会计师事务所 比如毕马威 American accounted firms like KPMG
对冰岛的银行做过审计 audit the Iceland's banks and investment firms
没发现任何问题 and found nothing wrong.
美国的信用评估机构 And American credit rating agencies
还说冰岛情况好极了 said Iceland was wonderful
2007年的2月份 In February 2007.
西格里德·本尼斯托蒂尔 冰岛议会特别调查员
这些评估机构决定 the rating agencies decided
将银行的信用等级 to upgrade the banks
提升至最高等级 AAA级 to a highest possible rate AAA
甚至政府官员都与银行家一起旅游 It went so far as the government here
以此作为公关秀 traveling with the bankers as a PR show.
2008年底 冰岛银行业崩溃后 When Iceland' banks collapsed at the end of 2008
6个月内失业率翻至三倍 unemployment tripled in 6 months
这场危机下 无人幸免于难 There is nobody unaffected in Iceland
-很多人倾家荡产 -就是这么回事 - So a lot of people here lost their savings - Yes that's the case
作为政府监管机构 The government regulators
金融监管机构
本应保护冰岛人民 who should've been protecting the citizens of Iceland
却毫无作为 had done nothing.
比如说有两个 You have two lawyers
监管机构的律师去银行 from regulator company who're coming to a bank
谈一些事务 to talk about some issues.
到了后发现 When they approach the bank
门前停着19辆SUV they would see nineteen SUVs outside the bank
也就是说进去之后 so you went to the bank and you have
有19个律师等着你 nineteen lawyers sitting in front of you
而且是有备而来 that very well prepared,
将你所有异议扼杀掉 ready to kill any argument you make
你要是表现特别好的话 And then if you do very well
他们就会拉你入伙 they offer you job
冰岛金融监管机构里三分之一的人 One third of Iceland's financial regulators
都跳槽去了银行 went to work for the banks
但这个问题是全球性的 But this is universal problem,
纽约也有这种问题 不是吗 in New York you have the same problem, right?
监守自盗
你觉得如今华尔街的收入情况如何 What do you think of Wall Street incomes this days?
过高 Excessive
保罗·沃尔克 前美联储主席
有人告诉我说国际货币基金组织(IMF) I've been told that it's extremly difficult
根本没有资格批评美国 for the IMF to criticize United States.
我的援助金又他妈在哪里
我不这么认为 I wouldn't say that
多米尼克·斯特劳斯-卡恩 国际货币基金总裁
我们为违反本国法律 深感后悔 We deeply regret our breaches of US law.
说来令人震惊 They're amazed at
华尔街人每天吸食那么大量的可卡因 how much cocain these Wall Streeters can use
然后第二天爬起来继续工作 and get up and go to work the next day.
国外债券市场中最常见的信用衍生产品
我不知道信用违约互换是什么 I didn't know what credit default swaps are
我比较守旧 I'm little bit old fashioned
乔治·索罗斯 亿万富翁 投资家 慈善家
拉里·萨默斯有过忏悔之意吗 Has Larry Summers ever expressed remorse?
我不听别人的忏悔的 I don't hear confessiones
巴尼·弗兰克 美国金融服务委员会主席 美国众议院议员
政府只管写支票 The government just writing checks
这是A计划 那是B计划 那是C计划 that's plan A, that's plan B and that's plan C.
您支持法律监管高管薪酬吗 Would you support legal controls on executive pay?
不支持 I would not
大卫·麦考密克 布什政府财政部副部长
您对金融服务业 Are you comfortable with
薪酬制度满意吗 law of compensation in financial service industry?
如果是他们应得的 我就满意 If they've earned it, then yes, I am
-你觉得是他们应得的吗 -我觉得是 - Do you think they've earned it? - I think they warranted.
斯科特·塔波特 美国金融服务业圆桌组织首席说客
这么说你帮这些人把世界搞的天翻地覆? And so you help these people blow the world up?
可以这么说 You could say that.
他们从公众的损失中获益匪浅 They were having massive private gains at public loss.
沈联涛 中国银监会首席顾问
你一旦想到 When you start thinking
自己可以无中生有之后 that you can create something all of nothing
这个诱惑会让你无法抗拒 it's very difficult to resist
李显龙 新加坡总理
我担心很多人会想重蹈覆辙 I'm concerned that a lot of people want go back to the old way
恢复危机之前的行事方式 the way they were operating prior to the crisis
克里斯汀.拉嘉德 法国财政部长
伦敦证券交易所
我每天收到银行家们无数的匿名信 I was getting a lot of anonymus e-mails from bankers
说到"请别署名" saying "You can't quote me,
"但我真的很担心" but I'm really concerned"
吉莲·邰蒂 《金融时报》美国版总编辑
你为什么觉得 Why do you think there isn't
他们没在进行全面调查 a more systematic investigation being undertaking?
因为那样就会找到罪魁祸首 Because then you will find the culprits
鲁里埃尔·鲁比尼 纽约大学商学院教授
你觉得哥伦比亚商学院 Do you think that Columbia Business School
有什么明显的利益冲突吗 has any significant conflict of interest problem?
好像没有 Don't see that we do
格伦.哈伯德 布什政府首席经济顾问 哥伦比亚商学院院长
埃利奥特·斯皮策 纽约州州长(2007-2008) 纽约州检察长(1999-2007)
监管人员没有尽到职责 The regulators didn't do their job
我任州检察长时那些案子 They had the power to do every case
他们都完全有能力解决 that I made when I was state attorney general.
他们就是不想解决 They just didn't want it.
2008年9月15日
本周末 雷曼兄弟公司 这个曾经备受敬仰 Over the weekend, Lehman Brothers one of the most venerable
同时也是最大的投资银行 and biggest investment banks,
被迫宣布破产 was forced to declare itself bankrupt
另有美林银行 也于今天迫出售 Another, Merrill Lynch, was forced to sell itself today
危机言论正在蔓延 Crisis talks are underway...
全球金融市场今日陷入低迷 World financial markets are way down today
随之而来的是两位华尔街巨头戏剧性的收场 following dramatic developments for two Wall Street giants....
2008年9月 In September 2008
美国雷曼兄弟投资银行破产 the bankruptcy of US investment bank Lehman Brothers
世界第一大保险公司 and the collapse of the world
美国国际集团(AIG)崩塌 largest insurance company AIG
引发了全球性金融危机 triggered the global financial crisis.
一夜之间 恐惧弥漫了整个市场 ...fears gripped markets overnight
亚洲股票板块狂跌... with Asian stocks slammed by...
股价出现跳水 Stocks fell off a cliff
创下有史以来单日最大跌幅 the largest single point drop in history
雷曼公司资产清算过程中 Share prices continued to tumble in
每股份额不断走低 the aftermath of the Lehman collapse
最终导致全球经济低迷 The result was the global recession
造成数万亿美元的损失 which costs the world tens of trillions of dollars
三千万人口失业 rendered 30 millions people unemployed
美国国家负债翻番 and doubled the national debt of the US
危机造成社会经济结构受损 If you looked at the costs of it:
鲁里埃尔·鲁比尼 经济顾问委员会成员 纽约大学商学院教授
包括产权资产结构 住房资产结构 the structure of equity wealth, of housing wealth
收入结构和工作结构 then the structure of income, of jobs,
全球1500万人 15 million people globally
可能要重回贫困线以下 could end up below the poverty line again
这场危机代价实在太大 太大了 This is just a hugely, hugely expensive crisis
这场危机并非偶然 This crisis was not an accident
一项失控的产业导致了这场危机 It was caused by an out of control industry.
自20世纪80年代起 Since the 1980s
美国金融业的崛起已引发一系列 the rise of US financial sector has led to a series
一次甚于一次的经济危机 of increasingly severe financial crises
危机所致损失逐次增大 Each crisis has caused more damage
该行业所得收益却日趋增多 while the industry has made more and more money
第一部分: 何以至此
经济大萧条之后四十年里 After the Great Depression, United States
美国经济持续增长 have 40 years of economic growth
此间没有发生经济危机 without a single financial crisis
金融业处在严密监管下 the financial industry was tightly regulated
大多数银行都是本地产业 most regular banks were local businesses
同时 法律禁止银行动用储户资金 and they were prohibited from speculating
进行投机行为 with depositors savings
投资银行 作为处理股票债券业务的银行 Investment banks which handle stock and bond tradings
当时都是小型私人合伙机构 were small private partnerships.
传统的投资银行伙伴关系模式 In the traditional investment banking partnership model
萨缪尔·海斯 哈佛商学院投资银行业名誉教授
是各位合伙人集资 the partners put the money up
所以大家都密切注意这笔钱的动向 and obviously the partners watch that money very carefully
他们希望生活富足 They wanted to live well
但却不想拿钱冒任何风险 but they didn't want to bet the ranch on anything
保罗·沃尔克当时在财政部供职 Paul Volcker served on the treasury department
并于1979年至1987年间担任美联储主席 and was chairman of the Federal Reserve from 1979 - 1987
进入政府部门之前 Before going into government,
他是大通曼哈顿银行的一名金融分析师 he was a financial economist at Chase Manhattan Bank
1969年我离开大通进入财政部时 When I left Chase to go in Treasury in 1969
收入大约是45000美元吧 I think my income was in the neighbour of $45000.
每年45000 $45000 a year.
1972年摩根斯坦利 Morgan Stanley in 1972
旗下大约有110名员工 had approximately 110 total personnel
一个办公室 1200万美元资产 One office and capital of $12 000 000
现在他们有五万雇员 Now Morgan Stanley has 50 000 workers
数十亿资产 and has capital of several billion
全球各地均有办事处 and has offices all over the world
贝尔斯登投资银行计划上市
20世纪80年代金融业大爆炸 In the 1980s the financial industry exploded
投资银行上市 The investment banks went public
合伙制已经过时
股票发行为其融集大量资金 given them huge amount of stock holding money
华尔街的人越来越富有 People on Wall Street started getting rich
每工薪酬
我有一个朋友上世纪70年代 I had a friend who was a bond trader
查尔斯·莫里斯 《两万亿的消融》作者
在美林银行做债券交易 at Merilyn Lynch in 1970s
他晚上兼职做列车调度员 He had a job as a train conducter at night
因为他有三个孩子 Because he had 3 kids
做债券交易赚的钱 and couldn't support them
无法养活孩子 on what a bond trader made
到1986年 他年收入就几百万了 By 1986 he was making millions of dollars
我还以为是因为他聪明 and thought it was because he was smart
目前国家经济建设的重中之重 The highest order of business before the nation
就是要恢复经济繁荣 is to restore our economic prosperity
1981年罗纳德·里根总统 In 1981 president Ronald Reagan
任命美林银行CEO choses Treasury Secretary
唐纳德·里根为财政部部长 the CEO of investment bank Merrill Lynch Donald Regan
华尔街与总统确实英雄所见略同 Wall Street and the President do see eye to eye
我与许多华尔街领袖谈过 I've talked to many leaders of Wall Street
他们也会全心全意支持总统 they also will be behind the President on 100%
里根政府 The Reagan administration
在经济学家以及金融说客支持下 supported by economists and financial lobbyist
开始了长达三十年的金融放松管制 started the 30 years period of financial deregulations
1982年 里根政府 In 1982 the Reagan administration
对储贷公司放松管制 deregulated savings and loan companies
允许他们动用储户资金 allowing them to make risky investments
进行风险投资 with their depositors' money
到80年代末 By the end of the decade
数百家储贷公司破产 hundreds of saving and loan compnies had failed
这次危机导致纳税人损失1240亿美元 This crisis cost tax payers $124 billion
使许多人的毕生积蓄付诸东流 and cost many people their live savings
这可以说是有史以来最大的银行劫案 It may be the biggest bank heist in our history
几千名储贷公司主管 Thousands of saving and loan executives
因为抢劫自己的公司而入狱 went to jail for looting their companies
其中最极端的例子就包括 One of the most extreme cases
查尔斯·凯丁 was Charles Keating
1985年联邦监管机构 In 1985 when federal regulators
开始对他进行调查时 began investigating him
凯丁雇了一位叫艾伦·格林斯潘的经济学家 Keating hired an economist named Alan Greenspan
在这封致监管机构的信件中 In this latter to regulators
格林斯潘赞扬了凯丁的合理商业计划和管理经验 Greenspan praised Keating's sound business plan and expertise
合理商业计划和管理经验
还说凯丁用客户的钱投资 and said he saw no risk in allowing
无任何可预见风险
在他看来 并无任何风险 Keating to invest his customers money.
据报道 凯丁付给格林斯潘4万美元 Keating reportedly paid Greenspan $40 000
此后不久 查尔斯·凯丁便锒铛入狱 Charles Keating went to prison shortly afterwords
而艾伦·格林斯潘 As for Alan Greenspan
则被里根总统任命为美国央行主席 President Reagan appointed him chairman of America's central bank
即美联储主席 The Federal Reserve
并被克林顿总统 Greenspan was reappointed
和乔治·W·布什总统续聘 by presidents Clinton and George W. Bush
克林顿政府执政期间 During the Clinton administration
金融市场在格林斯潘 deregulation continued under Greenspan
时任财政部长的罗伯特·鲁宾 And Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin,
同时也是高盛投资银行前任CEO the former CEO of the investment bank goldman Sachs
和哈佛经济学教授拉里·萨默斯的控制下持续自由化 and Larry Summers -- Harvard economics professor
华尔街金融业 实力强大 The financial sector of Wall Street being powerful,
有自己的说客 资金雄厚 having lobbyist, having lots of money
一步一步掌控政治系统 step by step captured the political system
民主党和共和党都有浸润 both on the Democratic and the Republican side.
到90年代末期 By the late 1990s
金融产业合并为几家巨型公司 the financial sector had consolidated into few gigantic firms
每一家都规模巨大 Each of them so large
一旦出现差错 将威胁到整个体系 that their failure can threaten whole system
而克林顿政府 And the Clinton administration
则助其规模进一步壮大 helped them grow even larger
1999年花旗公司和旅行家集团 In 1999 Citicorp and Travelers
合并为花旗集团 merged to form Citigroup
成为世界最大的金融服务公司 The largest financial services company in the world.
但这违反了格拉斯-斯蒂格尔法案 The merger violated the Glass-Steagall act
这项法案经济大萧条后通过的法案 A law passed after Great Depression
不允许银行用储户存款 which prevented banks with consumer deposits
进行风险投资银行业务活动 from engaging in risky investment banking activities
当时买进旅行家集团是非法的 It was illegal to acquire Travelers.
罗伯特·那兹达 格林宁研究所前任所长
但格林斯潘什么也没说 Greenspan said nothing.
美联储免了他们一年税金 The Federal Reserve gave him exemption
然后取消了这项法案 for a year and then they got the law passed
1999年在萨默斯和鲁宾的敦促下 In 1999 at the urging of Summers and Rubin
议会通过了金融服务现代化法案 Congress passed the "Glemm-Leach-Bliley Act"
也称花旗集团救济法案 Known to some as the Citigroup Relief Act
其完全推翻了格拉斯-斯蒂格尔法案 It overturned "Glass-Steagal"
也为之后的合并铺平了道路 and clear the way for future mergers
之后罗伯特·鲁宾上任花旗集团副董事长 赚取了一亿两千六百万美元
他拒绝接受本片采访
为什么会出现大银行 Why do you have big banks
威勒姆·布特 花旗集团首席经济学家
因为银行希望有垄断力 because banks like monopoly power
希望有说服力 because banks like lobbying power,
因为他们知道一旦规模巨大 because banks know that when you are too big
就会有政府援助 they will be bailed
这个市场有内在不稳定因素 Markets are inherently unstable
乔治·索罗斯 亿万富翁 投资家 慈善家
或者说 至少有潜在不稳定因素 or at least potentially unstable
一个恰当的比喻就是 有一艘油轮 and appropriate metaphor is the oil tankers
体型非常巨大 they were very big and therefore
因此需要在里面分成隔间 you have to put in compartments
防止油乱晃 to prevent the sloshing around of oil
导致油轮倾覆 from capsizing the boat
设计船舶时就该考虑这一点 the design of the boat has to take it into account
而大萧条之后 and after the Depression
金融监管就将防水隔间 the regulation actually introduced
引入到市场这艘巨型油轮中 this very watertight compartments
而放松管制 and deregulation has led to
则终结了这种隔离区划 the end of compartmentalisation
接下来一场危机发生于90年代末 The next crisis came at the end of the 90s
投资银行推动网络股泡沫持续膨胀 The investment banks fuel the mass of the bubble in internet stocks
此后于2001年全面崩盘 Which were followed by a crash in 2001
造成了五万亿的投资损失 that caused $5 trillion dollars in investment losses
证券交易监督委员会(证监会) The Securities and Exchange Commission
作为大萧条期间为管制投资银行业 The federal agency which had been created
而产生的联邦行政机构 during the depression to regulate investment banking
毫无作为 had done nothing
由于联邦监管行为毫无意义 In the absence of meaning for federal action
埃利奥特·斯皮策 纽约州州长
而且联邦也无所作为 and there has been none
鉴于其自我监管已明显失败 and given the clear failure of self regulation
现在必须有人介入 It is become necessary for others to step in
采取必要保护措施 and adopt the protections needed
埃利奥特·斯皮策调查结果显示 Eliot Spitzers investigations revealed that
Infospace公司股价
投资银行明知一些网络公司必将破产 the investments banks had promoted internet companies
却依然推销其股票 they knew would fail
股票分析师的收入 Stock analysts were being paid
与其所办理业务的多少挂钩 based on how much business they brought in
而他们在公开场合 and what they said publicly
长线买入
与私下所言大相径庭 was quite different from what they said privately
Infospace公司虽然有着最高评级 Infospace given the highest possible rating
却被分析师们贬为"垃圾" dismissed by the analysts as the "Piece of junk"
同属最高评级的Excite公司 Excite -- also highly rated
则被称做"狗屎一坨" called "Such a piece of crap"
埃利奥特·斯皮策 纽约州州长(2007-2008) 纽约州检察长(1999-2007)
这些投资银行 The defence that was proffered
所给出的辩解之词 by many of the investment banks
不是说"你说错了" 而是说 was not, you're wrong, it was...
大家都这么做 大家都明白怎么回事 everybodies doing it and everybodies knew what's going on
因此大家不应该信赖这些分析评级 and therefore nobody should rely on this analysts anyway.
对美林银行处以100万美元罚金 公司股票研究争端解决方案
2002年12月 十家投资银行 In december 2002 ten investment banks
以总计14亿美元了结此案 settle the case for a total of $1.4 billion
并承诺将改变运营方式 and promised to change their ways.
斯科特·塔波特 Scott Talbott is the chief lobbyist
美国金融服务业圆桌组织首席说客 for the Financial Services Roundtable
该组织位列华盛顿最高权力集团 one of the most powerful groups in Washington
该组织代表了几乎所有 which represents nearly all of the world's
世界顶级金融公司 largest financial companies
你们的成员公司 Are you comfortable with the fact
斯科特·塔波特 美国金融服务业圆桌组织首席说客
从事大规模犯罪活动 that several of your member companies
对此您能容忍吗 have engaged in large scale criminal activity?
-你得说具体点 -好吧 - You'll have to be specific - Ok...
但首先 犯罪行为绝对不能接受 毫无疑问 And first of all criminal activity shouldn't be accepted, period
华尔街公司将支付十亿罚金
自放松管制以来 Since deregulation began
世界上最大的金融公司 the world's biggest financial firms
被发现涉嫌洗钱 have been caught laundering money,
欺诈顾客 做假账 defrauding customers and cooking their books
一而再 再而三 again, and again, and again
摩根大通贿赂政府官员
摩根大通和解亚拉巴马贿赂案
里格斯银行为智利独裁者奥古斯托·皮诺切特洗钱
瑞信银行违反美国制裁法案为伊朗洗钱
瑞信银行为伊朗核计划 Credit Suisse helped funnel money for Iran's nuclear program
和航空航天工业组织提供资金 and for the Aerospace Industries Organization of Iran
该组织专门制造弹道导弹 which built ballistic missiles
只要有证据表明为伊朗资金 Any information that would identify it
就会被清除 as Iranian would be removed
该银行被处以五亿三千六百万美元的罚金 The bank was fined $536 million
花旗银行协助将一百五十万毒资 Citi bank helped funnel $1.5 million
转移至墨西哥境外 of drug money out of Mexico
花旗银行记录审查被纳入墨西哥质询
你说过她应该 Did you comment that she should
"别管和该账户有关的文件"吗 "Loose any documents connected with the account"
1999年11月9日
我说开玩笑说的 I said that in a kidding manner
阿尔伯特·米尚 花旗私人银行副总裁
是在这个项目早期说的 it was at the early stages of this.
我并没有真想如此 I did not mean it seriously.
房地美 会计欺诈 处以罚金一亿两千五百万
1998年至2003年 Between 1998 and 2003
房利美 会计欺诈 处以罚金4亿
房利美将其收入 Fannie Mae overstated its earnings
夸大上百亿 by more than $10 billion
该认定标准十分复杂 This accounting standards are highly complex
还需作出专家存在异议的决断 and required determinations over which experts often disagree.
CEO弗兰克林·雷恩斯 CEO Franklin Raines
曾任克林顿总统的预算主管 who used to be President Clinton's budget director
收益超过两千两百万美元 外加奖金 recieved over $22 million and bonuses
瑞士银行被控 When UBS was caught
瑞士银行 欺诈 被处七亿八千万美元罚金
帮助美国富人逃税时 helping wealthy Americans evade taxes.
他们拒绝配合美国政府 they refused to cooperate with US goverment
你愿意供出姓名吗 Would you be willing to supply the names?
要是有条约框架 If there is a treaty framework...
没什么条约框架 No treaty framework,
你都已经承认参与欺诈了 you've agreed you participated in a fraud
AIG将支付16亿与监管机构和解
银行如何协助安然欺诈
以下银行协助安然隐瞒欺诈 花旗银行 摩根大通 美林银行
处以三亿八千五百万罚金
但当公司面临数额空前的罚金时 But while the company is faced an unprecedented fines
投资公司却不需承认任何过错 the investment firms do not have to admit any wrong doing
一旦你的公司规模如此之大 When you this large and you are dealing
有如此多的产品和这么多的顾客 with this many products and this many customers
出错是难免的 mistakes happen
金融服务业 The financial services industry
对犯罪行为的判定标准 seems to have level of criminality that is,
似乎比较独特 you know, somewhat distinctive.
有的公司就很少出问题 When were the last time when
比如思科 英特尔 谷歌 苹果和IBM CISCO or Intel or Google or Apple or IBM you know...
高科技行业比金融业稳定 I'm totaly agree with you about
我完全同意你这个说法 hightech versus financial services.
但高新科技这个行业是从根本上创新 But hightech is fundamentally creative business
当你确实发明了与众不同的新东西 where value generation and income derives
便由此产生价值 获得收入 when you actually create something new and different
自上世纪九十年代起 Begining at 1990s
放松管制加上科技进步 deregulation and advances in technology
导致复合型金融产品大爆发 led to an explosion of complex financial products,
称为衍生品 called derivatives.
经济学家和银行家们 Economists and bankers
声称衍生品稳定了市场 claimed they made markets safer.
但事实上正相反 But instead they made them unstable.
冷战之后 Since the end of Cold War
沈联涛 中国银监会首席顾问
大批曾经的物理学家以及数学家 a lot of former physicists and mathematicians
决定将其技能 decided to apply their skills
应用于金融市场 not on Cold War technology
而非冷战科技 but on financial markets.
这中间还包括投资银行家和对冲基金 And together with investment bankers and hedge funds...
-造出了另一种武器 -没错 - Create a different weapons? - Absolutely.
正如沃伦·巴菲特所说 As Warren Buffett said:
"大规模杀伤性武器" "Weapons of mass destruction"
罗闻全 麻省理工金融工程实验室教授&负责人
市场监控者 政客和商界人士 Regulators, politicians and business people
没有认真对待 did not take seriously
金融创新对金融体系的稳定性 the threat of financial innovation
所带来的威胁 on the stability of the financial system.
通过衍生品交易 Using derivatives
银行家可以对任何东西下注 bankers could gamble on virtually anything.
可以是油价涨跌 They could bet on the rise or fall of oil prises
公司是否破产 甚至包括天气 the bankruptcy of the company, even the weather.
到上世纪九十年代末 By the late 1990s
衍生品这个自由化市场资本已达十五万亿美元 derivatives were a $15 trillion unregulated market.
1998年 有人试图监管这个市场 In 1998 someone tried to regulate them.
布鲁克斯利·波恩以班级第一 Brooksley Born graduated first in her class
毕业于斯坦福法学院 in Stanford Law School
是首位主流法律评论女性编辑 and was the first woman to edit the major law review.
她曾在阿诺德-波特律所负责衍生品业务 此后 After running derivatives practice at Arnold & Porter,
克林顿总统任命波恩 Born was appointed by president Clinton
为美国商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)主席 to chair the Commodity Futures Trading Commission,
该机构负责监管衍生品市场 which oversaw the derivatives' market.
布鲁克斯利·波恩问我 Brooksley Born ask me if
是否愿意与她共事 I would come work with her.
麦克尔·格林伯格 美国商品期货交易委员会 前任副会长(1997-2000)
我们认定这个市场 We decided that this was a serious,
具有相当的潜在不稳定性 potentially destabilizing market.
1998年5月 CFTC发布提案意图监管衍生品 In may of 1998 the CFTC issued a proposal to regulate derivatives.
克林顿政府财政部迅速做出回应 Clinton Treasury department had an immediate response.
我碰巧去了布鲁克斯利的办公室 I happened to go into Brooksley's office
她当时正放下电话听筒 and she was just putting down a reciever on her telephone.
脸上血色全无 And the blood had drained from her face
然后她看着我说 And she looked at me and said:
"是拉里·萨默斯的电话 "That was Larry Summers.
他办公室里坐着十三个银行家" He had 13 bankers in his office"
他的表述方式非常强硬 He conveyed it in a very bullying fashion,
有点勒令她停手的意思 sort of directing her to stop.
政府现在过分依赖银行 The banks were now heavily reliant
萨蒂亚吉特·达斯 衍生品顾问 《交易员,枪和钞票》的作者
通过此类衍生业务来赚钱收益 for earnings on this types of activities
由此引出一场大规模战役 and that led to titanic battle
以阻止此类收益手段被监管 to prevent this set of instruments from been regulated.
萨默斯来电后不久 Shortly after the phone call from Summers,
格林斯潘 鲁宾和证监会主席亚瑟·莱维特 Greenspan, Rubin and SEC chairman Arthur Levitt
发布联合声明 谴责波恩 issued a joint statement condemning Born
并建议立法系统 and recomended legislation
保障衍生品市场自由化 to keep derivatives unregulated.
我们严肃怀疑CFTC在此领域的管辖范围
对衍生品市场 Regulations of derivatives transactions
1998年7月24日
这种业内人士私下商议的产品市场进行监管 that are privately negotiated by professionals
并无必要 is unnecessary.
很不幸 她的提案被驳回了 She was overruled, unfortunately
众议员巴尼·弗兰克 (民主党-马萨诸塞州) 众议院金融服务委员会主席
先是被克林顿政府驳回 first by the Clinton administration
而后在国会也是如此 and then by the Congress
2000年 参议员菲尔·格兰姆作为核心人物 in 2000 Senator phil Gramm took a major role
让议案通过 and getting a bill passed
使得衍生品在很大程度上免于监管 that pretty much exempted derivatives from regulation.
他们是在统一市场 减少管理负担 They are unifying markets they are reducing regulatory burden.
参议员菲尔·格兰姆(共和党-德克萨斯州) 参议院银行委员会主席
我相信这正是我们该做的 I believe that we need to do it.
2000年6月21日
离开参议院后 菲尔·格兰姆成为瑞士银行的副董事长
他的妻子温迪自1993年起 便供职于安然公司董事会
我们深切希望 But its our very great hope
拉里·萨默斯 财政部长(1992-2001)
有可能的话 that it would be possible to
今年在立法上能有适当的发展 move this year on legislation in a suitable way,
使得场外衍生品在法律上具有确定性 goes to create legal certainty for OTC derivatives.
此后 拉里·萨默斯以两千万身价 受雇于一家对冲基金担任顾问 该基金严重依赖衍生品
我想说的是 I wished to assosiate myself
艾伦·格林斯潘 美联储主席
我同意萨默斯部长的每一句话 with all of the remarks of secretary Summers.
2000年12月 国会通过 In December 2000 Congress passed
商品期货现代化法案 The Commodity Futures Modernization Act.
这项法案在金融说客的协助下撰写而成 Written with a help of financial industry lobbyists,
禁止了衍生品监管 it banned the regulation of derivatives.
法案一经通过立即投入实施 Once that was done it was off to the races.
弗兰克·帕特诺伊 加州大学圣地亚哥分校 法律与金融教授
衍生品以及金融创新的应用 And use of derivatives and financial innovation
在2000年后出现大井喷 exploded dramatically after 2000.
2001年1月20日
-愿上帝保佑我 -愿上帝保佑我 -So help me God -So help me God
到2001年乔治·W·布什就任时 By the time G.W. Bush took office in 2001,
美国金融业盈利性高涨 the US financial sector was vastly more profitable,
分布集中 权力强大 大大超出以往 concentrated and powerfull then ever before.
主导这个行业的是五家投资银行 Dominating this industry were 5 investment banks,
高盛 摩根史坦利 雷曼兄弟 美林证券公司 贝尔斯登
花旗集团 摩根大通
两家金融集团 two financial conglomerates,
美国国际集团 美国城市债券保险 安巴克金融集团
三家证券保险公司 three securities insurance companies,
穆迪公司 标准普尔 惠誉
三家信用等级评价机构 and three rating agencies.
而链接它们的是 And linking them all together
证券化食物链
一条证券化的食物链 一个全新体系 was a securitization food chain, a new system,
将上万亿美元 抵押贷款及其他贷款 which connected trillion of dollars, mortgages and other loans
与全世界投资者相关联 with investors all over the world.
三十年前 想要贷款买房 30 years ago if you wanted get a loan for a home,
众议员巴尼·弗兰克(民主党-马萨诸塞州) 众议院金融服务委员会主席
借给你这笔钱的人 the person lending you a money
指望你能把钱还回去 expecting you to pay him or her back.
你从放贷人那里贷款 而他希望你能偿还 You got a loan from a lender who wanted you to pay him back.
因此发展出资产证券化 We've since developed securitization whereby
这样一来 放贷人 people who made the loan
便不会再有借款无法收回的风险 are no loger at risk of the failure of repay.
在旧的体系中 业主按月付按揭 In old system when home owner paid their mortgage every months
购房者
贷方
按揭支付
钱直接返还给放贷人 the money went to their local lender.
鉴于按揭付款需要几十年才能付清 And since mortgages took decades to repay
因此放贷人很谨慎 lenders were carefull.
在新的体系中 贷方将按揭贷款出售给投行 In a new system lenders sold the mortgages to investment banks.
购房者 贷方 投资银行 投资者
投资银行 The investment banks
将成千上万的按揭以及其他贷款 combined thousands of mortgages and other loans,
包括汽车贷款 including car loans,
助学贷款及信用卡债务 student loans and credit card debt
组合成复合型衍生品 to create complex derivatives
称为债务抵押证券 或CDO called collateralized debt obligation, or CDO.
接下来 投行将这些CDO出售给投资者 The investment banks then sold the CDOs to investors.
这样一来 当购房者支付按揭时 Now when home owners pay their mortgages,
这笔钱流向世界各地的投资者 the money went to investors all over the world.
投行付钱请信用等级评定机构 The investment banks paid rating agencies
对CDO进行估值 to evaluate the CDOs
信用等级评价机构
AAA
其中很多都获评AAA等级 and many of them were given a AAA rating,
信用等级评价机构 AAA BBB
即投资等级中的最高级别 which is highest possible investment rate.
这就使得CDO很受退休基金的欢迎 This made CDOs popular with retirement funds
信用等级评价机构 AAA BBB BB(垃圾)
因其只能购买信用等级高的证券 which can only purchase highly rated securities.
这一体系无异于定时炸弹 This system was a ticking time bomb.
贷方不再关心借款人是否有能力偿还 Lenders didn't care anymore about whether a borrower can repay.
首付只需1000美元 亚当斯置业
于是他们开始放出更高风险贷款 So they started making riskier loans.
按揭贷款 良好信用 不良信用 各种情况 预先批准
投行对偿还能力也不关心 The investment banks didn't care either.
CDO卖得越多 他们的利润就越高 The more CDOs they sold the higher their profits.
而接受投行佣金的信用评级机构 And the rating agencies which were paid by the investment banks
标准普尔
若在评级中出现失误 也无任何责任 had no liability if their ratings of CDOs proved wrong.
取消回赎 零首付
你将被套在其中 You were getting to be on the hook
吉莲·邰蒂 《金融时报》美国版总编辑
而且也不存在监管限制 and there weren't regulationly constraints.
这就为越来越多的贷款开了绿灯 So there were a green light to just pump out more and more loans..,
在2000到2003年间 Bentween 2000 and 2003,
按揭贷款 (单位: 十亿)
每年按揭贷款总额 the number of mortgage loans made each year
几乎翻了四番 nearly quadrupled.
这个证券化食物链上的所有人 Everybody in this securitization food chain
从一开始到最后 from the very beggining until the end
都不在意按揭贷款质量 didn't care about quality of the mortgage.
购房者 贷方 投资银行 投资者
他们在意的是将贷款总量最大化 They caring about maximazing their volume
然后从中抽取酬金 and getting a fee out of it.
次级贷款 (占所有贷款比例)
二十一世纪初 一种风险最大的贷款大幅增多 In the early 2000s there was a huge increase in the riskiest loans
即次级贷款 called subprime.
但当成千上万的次级贷款 But when thousands of subprime loans
被合并在一起做成CDO时 were combined to create CDOs,
其中许多仍然得到了AAA评级 many of them still received AAA ratings.
原本可以创造出与如今这种同等免赔额 Now it wouldn't have been possible to create derivative products
吉莲·邰蒂 《金融时报》美国版总编辑
但不具这种风险的金融衍生产品 that don't have this risks that carry the equivalent of deductibles,
其风险程度有上限 where there are limits on risks
在承受范围之内 等等之类 that can be taken on and so forth.
可他们并没这么做 对不对 They didn't do that, did they?
他们没有 They didn't do that and
而且现在看来 他们应该这么做的 in retrospect they should have done.
也就是说 他们知道自己的行为很危险? So these guys knew they were doing something dangerous?
我认为是这样 I think they did.
投行更倾心于次级贷款 因为可以获得更高的利息
这导致掠夺性贷款大量增加
借款人被无辜牵扯进高额次级贷款 许多人拿到贷款 而他们根本无力偿还
罗伯特·那兹达 格林宁研究所前所长
金融机构给按揭经纪人 All incentives that the financial institutions
提供的刺激奖励 offered to the mortgage brokers
是建立在瓜分这种最高盈利性产品的基础之上 were based on sawing the most profitable products
也就是掠夺性贷款 which were predatory loans
埃里克·霍珀林 责任贷款中心华盛顿办公室主任
说服你申请次级贷款 The bankers makes more money
银行家能因此赚更多的钱 if they put you on subprime loan
他们就会这么对付你 That's what they gonna put you
第二部分: 泡沫 (2001-2007)
突然之间 每年有上千亿美元 Suddenly hundreds of billions of dollars a year
在证券链中流动 were flowing through securitization chain
因为任何人都能申请按揭 Since anyone can get a mortgage
房屋交易量和放假飙升 home purchases and house's prices skyrocketed
造成的结果就是 形成史上最大金融泡沫 The result was the biggest financial bubble in history
房地产是实实在在的 看得见摸得着 Real estate is real, they can see their asset
地产投资百万富翁是如何炼成的
你是否错过了地产热潮
可以自己住 也可以对外出租 their can live in their asset, they can rent out their asset
查尔斯·莫里斯 《两万亿的消融》作者
房地产业大井喷 但其毫无意义 You had huge boom in housing that had no sense at all
金融业的金融偏好 The financing appetites of financial sector
控制着其他各方的一举一动 drove what everyboby else did
上一次出现房地产泡沫是在八十年代后期 Last time we had a housing bubble was in the late 80s
相较而言 那一次的房价上涨 In that case the increasing home praises
美国房价
幅度很小 were relatively minor
那次房地产泡沫导致了较为严重的经济衰退 That housing bubble led to relatively severe recession
1970年代激增 1980年代激增
1996年到2006年间 房价翻了一番 From 1996 until 2006 real home prices effectively doubled
以五百美元票价 At $500 a ticket
人们聚集于此聆听 they come to hear how buy
如何买进自己的美国梦 their very own piece of American dream
罗伯特·那兹达 格林宁研究所所长
高盛 贝尔斯登 Goldman Sachs, Bear Stearns,
雷曼兄弟 美林 Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch
都参与其中 were all in on this
仅仅次级贷款这一项 The subprime lending alone
十年间 资金从每年三百亿美元 increase from $30 billion a year in funding
上涨到每年六千亿美元 to over six hundred billion a year in ten years
情况如何 他们心里明白 they new what was happening
美国国家金融服务公司 最大的次贷出贷方 Countrywide Financial - the largest subprime lender
排名 1 国家金融服务公司
发行了价值970亿的贷款 issued $97 billion worth of loans
贷款额
国家金融服务公司利润 (单位: 十亿)
最终收益达一千一百亿 It made over %11 million dollars in profits as a result
华尔街奖金 (单位: 十亿)
在华尔街 年终现金奖励飙升 On Wall Street annual cash bonuses spiked
各位交易员和CEO 在泡沫中暴富 traders and CEOs became enormously wealthy during the bubble
雷曼兄弟是次级贷款的首要承销商 Lehman Brothers was the top underwriter of subprime lending
其CEO理查德·福尔德 And their CEO Richard Fuld
收获了四亿八千五百万美元 took home $485 million
鲁里埃尔·鲁比尼 纽约大学商学院教授
此次房地产以及信用泡沫 On Wall Street this housing and credit bubble
为华尔街带来了上千亿的利润 was leading to hundreds of billions of dollars of profits
到2006年 标准普尔500公司全部利润的40% By 2006 about 40% of all profits of S&P 500 firms
都是来源于金融机构 was coming from financial institutions
马丁·沃尔夫 《金融时报》首席经济评论员
那不是真实利润 不是真实收入 It wasn't real profits, it wasn't real income
不过是体系臆造出的钱 It was just money that was been
然后将其定义为收入 created by the system and booked as income
两三年之后 2 3 years down the road
就会成为拖欠额 然后一笔勾销 this is a default it's all wiped out
我认为从现在看来 这是一场大规模全国性 I think it was in fact, in retrospect, a great big national,
不仅是全国性 是全球性的旁氏骗局 and not just national global ponzi scheme
通过住房所有权和权益保护法案 Through the home ownership and equity protection act
美国联邦储备委员会向按揭贷款产业 the Federal Reserve Board had brought authority
引入权力机构进行监管 to regulate mortgage industry
但美联储主席格林斯潘无意使用该法案 but Federal Chairman Alan Greenspan refuse to use it
格林斯潘说"不行 Alan Greenspan said: "No,
我根本就不信任那个法案" that regulation, I don't even believe in it"
二十多年内 For 20 years
罗伯特·那兹达一直是格林宁研究所 Robert Gnaizda was the head of Greenlining
这个消费者权益协会的领袖 a powerfull consumer advocacy group
他定期会见格林斯潘 He met with Greenspan on a regular basis
我们向他提供了国家金融公司 We gave him an example of Countrywide
罗伯特·那兹达 格林宁研究所所长
一百五十份不同的可调利率复杂贷款范例 150 different complex adjustable rate mortgages
他说 就算你有数学博士学位 He said if you'd had a doctorate in math
也不能对其完全理解 you wouldn't be able to understand them enough
判断出哪些对你有益哪些无益 to know which was good for you and which wasn't
所以我们以为他会采取措施 So we thought he was gonna take action
然而随着谈话深入 but as the conversation continues
就发现 很明显他还是坚持自己的想法 it was clear he was stuck with his ideology
零五年我们又见到了他 We met again with Greenspan at '05
通常我们一年见他两次 至少每年一次 often we met with him twice a year never less than once a year
他还是不肯改变想法 and he wouldn't change his mind
艾伦·格林斯潘拒绝接受该片采访
当今世界全球化迅猛发展 令人称奇 In this amazing world of instant globalization,
克里斯多佛·考克斯 美国证监会主席
高效自由的资本流动 The free and efficient movement of capital
2005年6月2日
正协助制造出人类历史上的鼎盛时期 is helping to create the greatest prosperity in human history
美国证券交易监督委员会在房产泡沫期 从未对投资银行进行重点调查
共有146人 146 people were cut
2008年10月7日
被证监会执法部裁员 from the enforcement division of SEC
-你是来为此作证的吗 -是的 -Is that what you testified to? -Yes.
林恩·E·特纳 证监会前首席会计
我想这是对部门及其承载力 Yeah, I think there has been a, a systematic
进行内部清理 gutting, or whatever you want to call it,
或者你有别的说法 of the agency and its capability,
清理手段就是裁员 through cutting back of staff.
证监会风险管理办公室 The SEC office of risk managment
裁到最后只剩 was reduce to stuff,
一个人 你是这意思吗 did you say, of 1?
是的 这位先生傍晚下班后 Year, when that gentelman would
就可以把办公室灯关掉了 go home at night he could turn the lights out.
在泡沫期 投行大量借款 During the bubble the investment banks were borrowing heavily
以买入更多贷款 制成更多的CDO to buy more loans and create more CDOs
借款与银行资产之比 The ratio between borrowed money and
举债经营比率
借款 银行资产
称为举债经营比率 bank's own money was called leverage
银行借款越多 举债经营比率越高 The more banks borrowed the higher their leverage
2004年 高盛CEO亨利·保尔森 In 2004 henry Paulson the CEO of Goldman Sachs
帮助游说证券交易监督委员会 helped lobby the Securities and Exchange Commission
放宽对举债经营比率的限制 to relax limits on leverage
允许银行大幅增加其借款数额 allowing the banks to sharply increase their borrowing
肯尼斯·罗格夫 哈佛大学经济学教授
证监会不知作何考虑 The SEC somehow decided to let
允许投行加大赌注 investment banks gamble a lot more
简直疯了 That was nuts
不明白他们为何要这样 但他们就这么办了 I don't know why they did that but they did that
2004年4月28日 证监会委员召开会议 考虑解除针对投行的举债经营比率限制
我们说过这些都是大公司 这显然没错 We've said these are the big guys and clearly that's true.
委员会成员 哈维·J·戈斯克米德
可这意味着 一旦有任何差错 But that means if anything goes wrong,
就会引发大混乱 it's going to be an awfully big mess.
总监 安妮特·L·纳萨特
事情到这里 很显然 At this levels you're obviously dealing
你所面对的是最顶级的金融机构 with the most highly sophisticated financial institutions
委员会成员 罗·C·堪布斯
这几个公司 These are the firms that do most
运作了全美几乎所有的衍生品业务 of the derivative activity in the United States.
我们和其中几个公司 We talked to some of them as to
就其心理上限谈过 what their comfort level was.
他们真的觉得当时数额很合适 The firms actually thought that the number was appropriate.
总监 安妮特·L·纳萨特
主席 威廉·唐纳森
委员会成员是否听取员工建议 Do the commissioners vote to adopt the
投票决意采用规则修正案和新规则 rule amendments and new rules as recommended by the staff?
没错 匿名投票 We do indeed. Anonymous.
唐纳森
然后一直押后到现在 And we are adjourned.
投资银行举债经营比率 2003年与2007年相比
金融体系的举债经营比 The degree of leverage in financial system
已经变得很吓人了 became absolutely frightening
丹尼尔·阿尔珀特 威斯伍德资本公司 执行董事
投行的举债经营比已上升至33比1 investment banks leveraging up to the level 33 to 1
也就是说资产基础只要下降区区3% which means that tiny 3 procent decrease in a value of asset base
他们就会无力偿还债务 would leave them insolvent.
金融体系里还有另一个定时炸弹 There was another ticking time bomb in the financial system
AIG 全球最大的保险公司 AIG - the worlds largest insurence company
销售了大量衍生品 was selling huge quantities of derivatives
即信用违约互换 called credit default swaps
信用违约互换
对于持有CDO的投资者来说 For investers who owned CDOs
信用违约互换就像一张保险单 credit default swaps worked like an insurance policy
购买信用违约互换的投资者 An investor who purchase credit default swap
按期付款给AIG公司 paid AIG accordingly premium
一旦CDO出现问题 If CDO went bad
AIG承诺赔偿投资者损失 AIG promised to pay to investor for their losses
但与常规保险不同 But unlike regular insurance
投机者也可以从AIG公司购买信用违约互换 speculators could also buy credit default swaps from AIG
以便对不属于自己的CDO下注 in order to bet against CDOs they didn't own
在保险业中 只能为自己拥有的东西投保 In insurence you could only insure something you own
萨蒂亚吉特·达斯 衍生品顾问 《交易员,枪和钞票》的作者
比如说 你我拥有资产 Let's say you and I own property
我拥有一幢房屋 and I own a house
我只能对该房屋投保一次 I can only insure that house once
而衍生品实质上使得每个人 the derivatives universe essentially enables
都可以为该房屋投保 anybody to actually insure that house
所以你可以对其投保 其他人也可以 So you could insure that somebody else could do that
有五十个人可以为我的房屋投保 so 50 people could insure my house
情况是这样 一旦我的房屋烧毁 So what happens is if my house burns down
体系中的损失也相应变得很大 the number of losses in the system becomes proportionally large
因为信用违约互换并不受监管 Since credit default swaps were unregulated
信用违约互换
AIG没有储备资金弥补潜在损失 AIG didn't have put aside any money to cover potential losses
相反 一旦签订合同 Instead AIG paid its employees huge cash bonuses
AIG便给员工发放大额奖金 as soon as contract was signed
信用违约互换
而一旦CDO出现问题 but if a CDOs later went bad
AIG便会陷入泥潭 AIG would be on the hook
本质上说 当时的机制鼓励人们冒巨大风险 People were essentially been rewarded for taking massive risks.
年成好的时候 会产生短期税收 In good times they generate short-term revenues
利润 和由此而来的奖金 and profits and therefore bonuses
当长此下去 会导致公司破产 but that's gonna lead to the firm to be bankrupt over time
这是一个完全扭曲的薪酬制度 that's totally distorted system of compensation
AIG在伦敦的金融产品部 AIG Financial Products division in Lonodon
在泡沫期 issued $500 billion
发行了价值五千亿的信用违约互换 worth of credit default swaps during the bubble,
其中许多是由次级贷支撑的CDO many of them for CDOs backed by subprime mortgages
AIG金融产品部的四百名员工 The 400 employees of AIG FP
在2000年到2007年间 共赚得35亿美元 made $3.5 billion between 2000 and 2007
约瑟夫·卡萨诺 Joseph Cassano
AIG金融产品部主管 the head of AIG FP
个人收入达三亿一千五百万 personally made $315 million
2007年8月 约瑟夫·卡萨诺在AIG会议上与投资者通话
这么说并非轻率 It's hard for us, without being flippant，
但理性看来 在这些交易中 to even see a scenario within any kind of realm of reason
要损失一块钱都很难 that would see us losing $1 in any of those transactions
2007年 AIG审计员提出警告 In 2007 AIG auditors riaied warnings
约瑟夫·圣丹尼斯作为其中之一 One of them Joseph St. Denis
辞职以示抗议 resigned in protest
此前卡萨诺多次出面 After Cassano repeatedly
阻挠他调查AIG金融产品部会计记录 blocked him from investigating AIG FP's accounting
我已故意将你排除在外
马丁·沙利文 AIG首席执行官(2005-2008)
我告诉你 有一个人 Let me tell you one person
当大家都分得红利时 他一分钱没拿 who didn't get a bonus when everybody else was getting bonuses
亨利·韦克斯曼 众议院监管委员会主席
那就是圣丹尼斯 That was St Denis
圣丹尼斯先生 Mr. St. Denis
曾试图警告你们二位 who tried to alert two of you
这样下去会惹上大麻烦 to the fact that you are running into big problems
他在精疲力竭后辞职 一分奖金未得 he quit in frustration and he didn't get a bonus
2005年 拉古拉姆·瑞占 In 2005 Raghuram Rajan then the
时任国际货币基金组织首席经济学家 Chief economist of the International Monetary Fund
在杰克逊霍尔年度研讨会 delivered a paper at the Annual Jackson Hole symposium
这一银行界顶尖会议上递交论文 the most elite banking conference in the world
当时在场的有谁 Who was in the audience?
拉古拉姆·瑞占 国际货币基金组织首席经济学家(2003-2007)
我想世界上最核心的银行家应该都在 It was I guess a central bankers of the world
格林斯潘先生本人也在 ranging from Mr. Greenspan himself,
本?伯南克 Ben Bernanke,
拉里·萨默斯在场 Larry Summers was there,
提姆·盖特纳也在场 Tim Geithner was there
报告的标题很关键 The title of the paper was essentially
拉古拉姆·G·瑞占
金融发展是否让世界愈加不稳定 Is Financial Development Making the World Riskier?
金融发展是否让世界愈加不稳定 拉古拉姆·G·瑞占
结论是肯定的 and the conclusion was it is.
瑞占的论文 Rajan's paper focused on
聚焦于刺激奖励机制 其在短期利润基础上 incentives structures that generated huge cash bonuses
刺激奖励机制最令我忧心
产生巨额现金奖金 based on short-term profits,
却不对对此后的损失处以任何罚金 but which imposed no penalties for later losses.
瑞占认为 Rajan argued that these
抑制力过小 推动力过大
这种刺激奖励机制鼓励银行家去冒险 incentives encouraged bankers to take risks
最终可能会摧毁其自己的公司 that might eventually destroy their own firms,
冒险情绪愈加高涨
甚至摧毁整个金融体系 or even the entire financial system.
承担更大的风险可以轻松产生绩效 It's very easy to generate perfomance by taking on more risk.
灾难性崩塌
拉古拉姆·瑞占 国际货币基金组织首席经济学家(2003-2007)
所以你提供薪酬 And so what you need to do
应该根据风险调整后的绩效 is compensate for risk-adjusted performance,
这才是真正的绩效 and that's where all the bodies are buried.
肯尼斯·罗格夫 哈佛大学经济学教授
瑞占可以说是一针见血 Rajan, you know, hit the nail on the head.
他尤其说道 What he particularly said was:
"你们口口声声说自己找到了 "You guys have claimed you found a way
低风险高利润的赚钱途径 to make more profit with less risk,
要我说 这一途径是高风险高利润" I say you found a way to make a more profit with more risk"
两者相去甚远 And there's a big difference.
萨默斯说话很直接 Summers was vocal.
他基本上是这么认为 He basically thought that
我是在批判金融界变革 I was criticizing the change in the financial world.
担忧监管问题 And was worried about regulation,
这种会逆转变革的东西 which reverse this whole change.
19世纪初捣毁机器的手工业工人
所以实际上 他就是指责我为勒德分子 So essentially he accused me of being a Luddite.
他不希望 He wanted to make sure that
我们搞出一套新的监管制度 we didn't bring a whole new set of regulations
在那种情形下制约金融业 to constrain the financial sector at that point.
拉里·萨默斯拒绝接受该片采访
你可以每年多赚两百万美元 You gonna make an extra $2 million dollars a year
弗兰克·帕特诺伊 加州大学圣地亚哥分校 法律与金融教授
或一千万美元 or $10 million dollars a year
只要你敢拿你的金融机构冒险 for puting you financial institution at risk.
会有别人为此买单 与你无关 Someone else pays the bill - you don't pay the bill.
你愿意赌一把吗 Would you make that bet?
大多数在华尔街工作的人都说 Most people who worked on Wall Street said:
"当然愿意 我赌一把" "Sure, I make that bet".
汉普顿 距离纽约两小时路程
他们欲求不满 That's never was enough.
他们不想只有一处房子 They never wanna own one home.
他们想要坐拥五处房产 They wanna own five homes
想拥有一套林荫大道上的高价顶层公寓 and they wanna have an expensive Penthouse on Park Avenue.
还想拥有私人飞机 And they want have they own private jet.
您认为在这个行业 高额薪酬 You think this is an industry where high,
斯科特·塔波特 美国金融服务业圆桌组织首席说客
如此高额的薪酬没问题吗 very high compensation levels is just fine?
对于你所说的"高额" I think I would take caution, take heed,
我持谨慎态度 不同意这一说法 or take exception at your word very high,
数额大小都是相对的 I mean it's all relative.
你在佛罗里达拥有四千亿美元的滨海住宅 You have a $40 million oceanfront home in Florida,
在爱达荷的太阳谷拥有一处避暑住宅 you have a summer vacation home in Sun Valley, Idaho.
理查德·福尔德 雷曼兄弟公司CEO
你们夫妻的艺术收藏品中 You and your wife have art collection
充斥着价值百万的画 filled with million dollar paintings.
理查德·福尔德从来不去交易所 Richard Fuld never appeared on the trading floor.
一直都是跟艺术顾问在一起 There was art advisors up there all the time.
劳伦斯·麦克唐纳德 雷曼兄弟公司前任副总裁
他还有自己的私人电梯 You know, he had his own private elevator,
他使劲浑身解数 就为寻个清静 he was out of his way to be disconnected.
要知道 他的电梯 I mean, his elevator,
也是请来技术员设定好 they hire technicians to program it, you know,
这样他的司机早上打电话过来 so that his driver would call in in the morning,
就会有保安按下电梯等他 and a security guard would hold it.
这中间大概只会空出两三秒时间 And there'a only like 2 or 3 seconds window
可能让他被人看到 when he actually he has to see people,
然后就进入电梯 直达三十一层 and he hops in the elevator and he goes straight to 31.
哈维·米勒 雷曼公司破产程序律师
雷曼公司有很多架商务机 Lehman owned a bunch of corporate jets,
-你知道吗 -知道 - do you know about this? - Yes.
有多少架 How many were there?
有六架 包括几架波音767 Well, there were 6, including 767s.
他们还有一架直升机 They also had a helicopter.
知道了 这么多飞机不嫌多吗 I see. Isn't that kind a lot of planes to have?
我们同A型人格者打交道 We deal with type A personalities,
A型人格为驱动型人格 进取心强
杰弗瑞·莱恩 雷曼兄弟公司 副董事长(2003-2007)
他们对整个世界了如指掌 and type A personalities know everything in the world.
银行业变成了一场无聊的竞赛 Banking became a pissing contest, you know
威勒姆·布特 花旗集团首席经济学家
单纯的规模 数量上的竞赛 mine is bigger than yours, that's kind of stuff.
而且是所有人都参与 It was all men that ran it, incidentally.
一百五十亿的生意 $15 billions deals weren't
还是不够大 得做上千亿的生意 large enough so we do $100 billion deals.
那些人乐于冒险 浮躁冲动 These people are risk-takers, they're impulsive.
乔纳森·阿尔珀特是一位心理治疗师 他的客户中包括许多华尔街高管
这是他们行为的一部分 That's part of their behavior,
也是他们人格的一部分 part of their personality
在工作之余仍显露无遗 and that manifests outside of work as well.
他们的典型行为包括 It's quite typical for the guys
闪电舞娘 男性俱乐部 寿司&清酒吧
出门去脱衣舞俱乐部 滥用毒品 to go out, to go strip bars, to use drugs.
我知道他们大量吸食可卡因 频繁招妓 I see a lot of cocain use, a lot of use of prostitution.
《纽约时报》 华尔街头繁华尽 千金膝舞犹春宵
据切尔西一家贵宾俱乐部老板估计 其80%客人来自于华尔街
最近神经学家进行了一项实验 Recently neuroscientists have done experiments
罗闻全 MIT金融工程实验室教授&负责人
他们将实验对象 where they've taken individuals
置于核磁共振仪监测下 put them into MRI machine and
让他们玩以金钱作为奖赏的游戏 and they have them play game where the prize is money.
他们注意到 当实验对象赢钱时 And they notice that when the subjects earn money
他们大脑中受刺激部位 the part of the brain that get stimulated
和服用可卡因时受刺激部位是一样的 is the same part that cocain stimulates.
很多人认为他们必须参与到这种行为当中 A lot of people feel they need to really participate in that behavior
才能得到晋升 被人认同 to make it to get promoted, to get recognized.
根据一篇彭博社的文章所说 According to a Bloomberg article
商务应酬的花费 business entertainment represents
占到纽约衍生品经纪人收入的5% 5% of revenue for New York derivatives brokers.
其中常包括脱衣舞吧 嫖娼和毒品的消费 and often includes strip clubs, prostitution, and drugs.
2007年 一位纽约经纪人对其公司提起诉讼 A New York broker filed a lawsuit in 2007 against his firm
声称自己要花钱雇娼妓取悦交易人 alleging he was required to retain prostitutes to entertain traders.
定期付钱给娼妓 以取悦交易人
这种行为 There's just a blatant disregard
可能对社会和家庭产生的影响 for the impact that their actions might have on,
他们完全不以为意 on society, on family
他们可以召妓 They have no problem using a prostitute,
然后回家见妻子 毫不羞耻 uh, and going home to their wife.
克莉丝汀·戴维斯在其高级寓所里 经营一家高端卖淫集团
距离纽约证券交易所只有几步之遥
你有多少客人 How many customers?
那时候大概有一万多人 About 10,000 at that point in time.
每小时1000起 1600封顶 信用卡支付加收15%
有几成是来自华尔街的 What fraction were from Wall Street?
就高端客户 大概百分之四十到五十 Of the higher-end clients, probably. 40 to 50 percent.
所有华尔街大公司的人都有吗 And were all the major wall Street firms represented?
比如高盛 Goldman Sachs.
雷曼兄弟 对 都有 Lehman Brothers, yeah, they're all in there.
摩根士丹利这方面稍微好一点 Morgan Stanley was a little less of that.
我认为高盛则在这方面比较严重 Uh, I think Goldman was, was pretty, pretty big with that.
很多客人会打电话给我说 A lot of clients would call me,
今晚能不能给我的女伴弄部兰博基尼 and say, can you get me a Lamborghini for the night for the girl?
他们花的都是公司的钱 These guys were spending corporate money.
我这有很多张黑卡[高级信用卡] I had many black cards from,
都是各个金融公司的户头 you know, the various financial firms.
情况一般都是这样 What's happening is
把这些费用写为电脑维修 services are being charged to computer repair.
贸易研究 还有市场监督咨询之类的 Trading research, you know, consulting for market compliance.
我经常直接把发票抬头留给他们 I just usually gave them a piece of letterhead,
然后让他们想报什么自己写 and said, make your own invoice.
也就是说 你认为这种行为模式 So this pattern of behavior, you think,
可以延伸到公司高管身上 extends to the senior management of the firm.
当然可以 据我所知 确实如此 Absolutely does, yeah. I know for a fact that it does.
一直延伸到最高层 It extends to the very top.
艾伦·斯隆 《财富杂志》高级编辑
我一位朋友在一家公司工作 A friend of mine, who, who's involved in a company
他们公司有大型金融业务 that has a big financial presence,
他说 你应该了解一下次级贷款了 says, well, it's about time you learned about subprime mortgages.
所以他就在交易柜前跟我普及知识 So he set up a session with his trading desk and me
当时还有一位做这方面的技术员在 and, and a techie, who, who did all this,
他聊到兴头上 冲到电脑前 gets very excited, runs to his computer,
大概过了三秒钟 pulls up, in about three seconds,
就调出了高盛的证券投资记录 this Goldman Sachs issue of securities.
简直太可怕了 It was a complete disaster.
平均下算来 Borrowers had borrowed,
购房者99.3%的房款都是贷的 on average, 99.3 percent of the price of the house,
说明他们根本没钱 which means they have no money in the house.
一旦出现问题 If anything goes wrong,
他们就还不了房贷 they're gonna walk away from the mortgage.
这笔贷款压根就不该借出 不是吗 This is not a loan you'd really make, right?
疯子才会这么干 You've gotta be crazy.
但不知为何 But somehow,
你就能贷到八千笔这种贷款 you took 8,000 of these loans
一直到到高盛和评级机构的人受处罚时 and by the time the guys were done at Goldman Sachs and the rating agencies,
价格平易近人的豪宅 每月支付1890美元
这些贷款中三分之二被评为AAA级 two-thirds of the loans were rated AAA,
这意味着它们跟国债一样安全 which meant they were rated as safe as government securities.
完全就是疯了 It's, it's utterly mad.
高盛公司前总部
高盛公司在2006上半年至少出售了 Goldman Sachs sold at least 3.1 billion dollars' worth
价值31亿美元这种危险的CDO of these toxic CDOs in the first half of 2006.
时任高盛公司CEO的是亨利·保尔森 The CEO of Goldman Sachs at this time was Henry Paulson,
华尔街收入最高的CEO the highest-paid CEO on Wall Street.
2006年5月30日
早上好 欢迎来到白宫 Good morning, welcome to the White House.
在此我荣幸宣布 I am pleased to announce that
将提名亨利·保尔森 I will nominate Henry Paulson
为财政部长 to be the secretary of the Treasury.
他毕生从事商业 He has a lifetime of business experience,
对金融市场有深刻了解 he has an intimate knowledge of financial markets,
有着坦率正直的声誉 he has earned a reputation for candor and integrity.
你或许觉得政府的微薄薪水 You might think it would be hard for Paulson
会令保尔森难以适应 to adjust to a meager government salary.
但接受财政部长一职 But taking the job as Treasury
是他一生中最正确的理财决定 secretary was the best financial decision of his life.
保尔森在上任前不得不出售 Paulson had to sell his 485 million dollars
其价值四亿八千五百万的高盛股票 of Goldman stock when he went to work for the government.
但根据老布什在任时通过的一项法律 But because of a law passed by the first President Bush,
他不必为此纳税 he didn't have to pay any taxes on it.
这为他节省了五千万美金 It saved him 50 million dollars.
2007年艾伦·斯隆发表了一篇文章 聚焦保尔森任CEO最后一个月内所发行的CDO
垃圾房产 从一个例子解读次级抵押贷款如何变质
文章于2007年十月发表 The article came out in October of 2007.
作者 艾伦·斯隆
在此之前 已有三分之一的按揭贷款被拖欠 Already, a third of the mortgages defaulted.
贷款额超过一万五千亿美元 损失约两千亿 数千家庭将被收回房产
而今 绝大部分都处于拖欠状态 Now, uh, most of them are goin'.
高盛CDO评级
如今已经一文不值的这些证券 One group that had purchased these
当时的买主包括 now-worthless securities
密西西比州公务员退休金系统 was the Public Employees Retirement System of Mississippi,
该系统要为超过八万退休人员按月提供津贴 which provides monthly benefits to over 80,000 retirees.
他们损失了上百万美金 They lost millions of dollars,
现在正起诉高盛公司 and are now suing Goldman Sachs.
密西西比州公务员年平均退休金 18750美元
高盛公司雇员平均年薪 600000美元
亨利·保尔森2005年收入 31000000美元
2006年年末 高盛公司行为更甚 By late 2006, Goldman had taken things a step further.
他们不再限于出售危险CDO It didn't just sell toxic CDOs
一方面告知客户 it started actively betting against them
这些CDO为优质投资产品 at the same time it was telling customers
高盛公司如何私下赌美国房地产崩溃
另一方面却对其反向投保 that they were high-quality investments.
通过购买AIG的信用违约互换产品 By purchasing credit default swaps from AIG,
信用违约互换
高盛公司得以给不属于他们的CDO反向投保 Goldman could bet against CDOs it didn't own,
并在这些CDO亏损时获利 and get paid when the CDOs failed.
我问过他们有没有人给客户打过电话 I asked them if anybody called the customers,
艾伦·斯隆 《财富杂志》高级编辑
告诉他们说 and said, you know,
我们不再那么看好这类贷款了 we don't really like this kind of mortgage anymore,
觉得有必要让你们知情 and we thought you ought to know, you know.
他们 他们什么也没说 They, they didn't really say anything
但你能感觉到电话那边 but, you know, you could just feel the laughter
他们在偷笑 coming over the phone.
高盛助力AIG投机
高盛公司购买了 Goldman Sachs bought at least
至少22亿美金的AIG信用违约互换产品 22 billion dollars of credit default swaps from AIG.
数额如此之巨 It was so much
但他们为AIG账面加大风险
让高盛意识到AIG本身或许会因此破产 that Goldman realized that AIG itself might go bankrupt.
所以他们又花了一亿五千万 So they spent 150 million dollars
为自己投保 以防AIG崩溃 insuring themselves against AIG's potential collapse.
然后在2007年 高盛变本加厉 Then, in 2007, Goldman went even further.
他们开始出售特别设计的CDO They started selling CDOs specifically designed
这样他们的客户损失越多 so that the more money their customers lost,
高盛就赚得越多 the more money Goldman Sachs made.
高盛集团CEO和所有高管拒绝接受本片访问
但2004年4月 他们被迫在国会面前作证
你一共销售了六亿美金的森林狼证券 Six hundred million dollars, Timberwolf Securities is what you sold.
卡尔·莱文议员(民主党-密歇根州) 政府事务调查小组委员会主席
出售之前 Before you sold them,
你的销售团队里是这么讨论的 this is what your sales team were tellin' to each other.
老天 那个森林狼真是单狗屎生意 Boy, that Timberwolf was one shitty deal.
这是一封六月底寄给我的邮件 This was an e-mail to me in late June.
是的 你管森林狼叫... Right. And you're callin' Timberwolf..
丹尼尔·斯帕克斯 高盛公司按揭贷款部前主管(2006-2008)
那是在交易之后 After the transaction.
不 不 那之后你依然出售了森林狼 No no, you sold Timberwolf after as well.
我 我们确实是在那之后交易 W-, we did trades after that.
好了 Yeah, okay.
下一封邮件 看看 07年7月1日 The next e-mail, take a look, July 1, '07
告诉销售团队 "优先推销森林狼" tells the sales force, "The top priority is Timberwolf."
你们优先推销的就是那单狗屎生意 Your top priority to sell is that shitty deal.
如果你拥有客户的反向权益 If you have an adverse interest to your client,
你是否有义务告知客户 do you have the duty to disclose that to your client
你具有他们的反向权益 to tell that client of your adverse interest?
这就是我的问题 That's my question.
主席先生 我不太明白 Mr. Chairman, I just tryin' to understand.
不 我认为你明白 No, I think you understand it.
你只是不想回答 I don't think you want to answer it.
苏珊·科林斯参议员(共和党-缅因州) 国土安全和政府事务委员会高级官员
你认为自己是否有义务 Do you believe that you have a duty to act
代表客户的最高利益 in the best interests of your clients?
法布里斯·图尔 高盛集团结构性产品贸易 执行官
再一次重申 参议员 我 Again, uh, uh, Senator, I,
我再重申一次 I will repeat, you know,
我们有义务为客户服务 we have a, a duty to, to serve our clients
根据顾客要求 对其展示交易价值 by showing prices on transaction where they ask us to show prices for.
出售这种 What do you think about
自己人认为是垃圾的证券 你怎么看 selling securities which your own people think are ?Crap?
你会觉得不安吗 Does that bother you?
我觉得他们会...再问一次 这是假设吗 I think they would, again, as a hypothetical?
劳埃德·布兰克费恩 高盛集团董事长&CEO
不 这是事实 No. This is real.
-好吧 我不 -我们今天听说了 - Well then I don't - We heard it today.
我们都听到了 这是单狗屎生意 这就是垃圾 We heard it today: this is a shitty deal, this is crap.
我今天没有听到任何 I, I, I heard nothing today
让我感到事态有变的消息 that makes me think anything, um, went wrong.
你向别人出售一种产品 Is there not a conflict when you sell something to somebody,
然后你又赌它会亏损 而且不对买家透露 and then are determined to bet against that same security
你不觉得这中间有矛盾冲突吗 and you don't disclose that to the person you're selling it?
-在 -你看到问题了吗 - In the... - Do you see a problem?
如果是为营造市场 这就不算矛盾冲突 In the context of market-making, that is not a conflict.
大卫·维尼亚 高盛集团执行副总裁兼首席财务官
当你听说员工在这些邮件里面说 When you heard that your employees, in these e-mails, said,
"天哪 这真是单狗屎生意 真是垃圾" "God, what a shitty deal, god, what a piece of crap"
你有什么感觉吗 do you feel anything?
它出现在邮件里 我觉得很不合适 I f..., I think that's very unfortunate to have on e-mail.
你这是吐槽... Are you b...
非常不合适 我不... And, and, and very unfortunate... I don't, I don't...
别扯没用的 你到底作何感想 On e-mail? How about feeling that way?
我觉得任何人 I think it's very unfortunate
在任何情况下这么说都不适宜 for anyone to have said that, in any form.
你是否认为 Is it your understanding
汤姆·科本参议员(共和党-俄克拉荷马州) 政府事务调查小组委员会 高级官员
你们的竞争对手也从事类似活动 that your competitors were engaged in similar activities?
是的 而且多数情况下比我们行为更甚 Uh, yes. And, and to a greater extent than us, in most cases.
对冲基金经理约翰·保尔森 Hedge fund manager John Paulson
从抵押市场反向投保中 made 12 billion dollars
获利十二亿美金 betting against the mortgage market.
当约翰·保尔森没有按揭证券可以反向投保时 When John Paulson ran out of mortgage securities to bet against,
他便与高盛和德意志银行合作 he worked with Goldman Sachs
创造出更多的按揭贷款证券 and Deutsche Bank to create more of them.
摩根士丹利同样出售了 Morgan Stanley was also selling
自己反向投保的按揭贷款证券 mortgage securities that it was betting against,
如今正被维京群岛公务员退休基金 and it's now being sued by the government employees retirement fund
以诈骗罪名起诉 of the Virgin Islands for fraud.
诉讼书中声称 The lawsuit alleges that
第一时间知晓其贷款质量正在下降
摩根士丹利明知这些CDO毫无价值 Morgan Stanley knew that the CDOs were junk.
尽管它们的评级为AAA Although they were rated AAA,
换言之 摩根士丹利打赌自己推销的投资产品会亏损 他们赌赢了
摩根士丹利仍下注其会亏损 Morgan Stanley was betting they would fail.
一年后 摩根士丹利从中获利上百亿美元 A year later, Morgan Stanley had made hundreds of millions of dollars,
而投资者 则近乎倾家荡产 while the investors had lost almost all of their money.
高盛 约翰·保尔森 摩根士丹利并非个例
对冲基金Tricadia和Magnetar 曾与美林 摩根大通和雷曼兄弟共同设计CDO 而后又对这些CDO反向投保
这些CDO作为"可靠"投资产品卖给客户
你原本以为退休基金会说 You would have thought that pension funds would have said,
"这是次贷 我们买这些干嘛" "Those are subprime why am I buying them?"
然后那些穆迪和标准普尔的人 And they had these guys at Moody's
就会告诉你 这些都是AAA级的 and Standard and Poor's who said, that's a AAA.
比尔·阿克曼 对冲基金经理
没有得到许可 None of these securities got issued
证券就无法发行 without the imprimatur, you know,
也就是评级机构的内部批准章 the Good Housekeeping Seal of Approval, of the rating agencies.
三大评级机构 The three rating agencies
穆迪公司总部
穆迪 标准普尔和惠誉 Moody's, S&P, and Fitch
通过给高风险证券高评级 made billions of dollars giving high ratings
赚了几十亿美元 to risky securities.
评级机构利润
穆迪 作为最大的评级机构 Moody's, the largest rating agency,
2000年到2007年间 利润翻了两番 quadrupled its profits between 2000 and 2007.
穆迪和标准普尔获利方式 Moody's and S&P get compensated based on
比尔·阿克曼 对冲基金经理
就是给出评级报告 putting out ratings reports.
他们给出的AAA评级越多 And the more structured securities they gave a AAA rating to,
每季度获利就越多 the higher their earnings were gonna be for the quarter.
就像是 如果你去《纽约时报》报社 Imagine if you went to the New York Times,
然后说 你写一篇正面的报道 and you said, look, if you write a positive story,
我就给你五十万美元 I'll pay you 500,000 dollars.
如果你不写 那就一分都没有 But if you don't, I'll give you nothing.
评级机构本可以停止这场闹剧 然后说 The rating agencies could have stopped the party, and said:
杰罗姆·冯斯 穆迪评级公司 前常务董事
很抱歉 我们准备提高标准了 We're sorry. You know. We're gonna tighten our standards.
现在这样... This is ?And,
然后马上切断 and, and immediately cut off
大量流向危险借贷者的资金 a lot of the flow of funding to risky borrowers.
发出去的AAA评级 AAA-rated instruments mushroomed
迅速从少量膨胀到数千 from just a handful to thousands and thousands.
新评出的AAA评级
价值上千亿美元的产品 接受评级 Hundreds of billions of dollars, uh, were being rated.
知道吗 而且... You know ?And...
-每年吗 -是的 每年 - Per year. - Per year; oh, yeah.
弗兰克·帕特诺伊 加州大学圣地亚哥分校法律和金融教授
我已在国会两院就信用评级机构问题作证 I've now testified before both houses of Congress on the credit rating agency issue.
那两次 他们都请出 And both times, they trot out
专攻宪法第一修正案的大律师 very prominent First Amendment lawyers,
辩解称我们给出AAA级时 and argue that when we say something is rated AAA,
那只是我们的"一家之言" 不应过分依赖 that is merely our opinion you shouldn't rely on it.
标准普尔评级代表我们的意见 S&P's ratings express our opinion.
迪文·沙马 标准普尔信用评级公司
我们的评级仅是我们的意见 Our ratings are, uh, are our opinions.
史蒂芬·乔因特 惠誉评级
一家之言 They are opinions.
雷蒙德·麦克丹尼尔 穆迪公司
一家之言 只是一家之言 Opinions. And those, they're just opinions.
我觉得我们要强调一个事实 我们的评级 I think we are emphasizing the fact that our ratings are,
只是一家之言 are opinions.
他们没和我们分享一家之言
无一例外地拒绝接受本片采访
迪文·沙马 标准普尔信用评级公司
他们不告知证券的市场价值 They do not speak to the market value of a security,
价格的易变性 the volatility of its price,
以及是否适合用作投资 or its suitability as an investment.
第三部分: 危机
有很多经济学出现在我们直播中 都说 We have so many economists coming on our air, and saying,
2005年7月
这是泡沫 迟早会破灭的 oh, this is a bubble, and it's going to burst,
这会对经济造成巨大影响 and this is going to be a real issue for the economy.
有人说甚至有可能会导致经济衰退 Some say it could even cause a recession at some point.
假设说全国房价真的大幅下跌 What is the worst-case scenario, if in fact we were to see
所导致的最坏的情况会是怎样 prices come down substantially across the country?
我不认同你的前提假设 Well, I, I guess I don't buy your premise.
这几乎不可能出现 It's a pretty unlikely possibility.
我们从来没有出现过 We've never had a decline in house prices
全国范围内的房价大跌 on a nationra-, ba-, a nationwide basis.
本·伯南克于2006年2月上任美联储主席 Ben Bernanke became chairman of the Federal Reserve Board in February 2006,
次级贷款占所有贷款比例
那也是次级贷款的巅峰年 the top year for subprime lending.
尽管受到诸多警告 But despite numerous warnings,
伯南克与美联储没有采取任何措施 Bernanke and the Federal Reserve Board did nothing.
本·伯南克拒绝接受本片采访
自伯南克上任后 Robert Gnaizda met with ben Bernanke
罗伯特·那兹达曾三度与本·伯南克 and the Federal Reserve Board three times
及联邦储备委员会委员会面 after Bernanke became chairman.
直至最后一次会面 Only at the last meeting
他才暗示可能存在问题 did he suggest that there was a problem,
并且应当得到政府的重视 and that the government ought to look into it.
那是什么时候 哪一年 When? When was that? What year?
2009年3月11日 当时在特区 It's 2009, March 11th, in D.C.
-今年吗 -对 今年会面的时候 - This year. - This year we met, yes.
这么说 前两次会面他都没有提过吗 And so for the two previous years you met him,
-08年也没提? -没提 - even in 2008? - Yes
伯南克手下六名美联储理事 One of the six Federal Reserve Board governors
其中就包括弗雷德里克·米什金 serving under Bernanke was Frederic Mishkin,
由布什总统于2006年任命 who was appointed by President Bush in 2006.
你参加了罗伯特·那兹达和格林宁研究所 Did you participate in the semiannual meetings that, uh,
弗雷德里克·米什金 美联储理事(2006-2008)
与美联储共同召开的半年度会议吗 Robert Gnaizda and, and, uh, Greenlining had with the Federal Reserve Board?
是的 我当时在委员会里 Yes I did. I was actually on the committee that, uh,
消费者与共同体事务委员会 that was involved, involved with that the Consumer and Community Affairs Committee.
他对当时的情况 He warned, in an extremely explicit manner,
提出了明确警告 about what was going on
而且带着贷款文件来到美联储 and he came to the Federal Reserve Board with loan documentation
当时那种贷款交易非常频繁 of the kind of loans that were frequently being made.
你们礼貌地听了他的意见 但毫无动作 And he was listened to politely, and nothing was done.
对 其实我不太清楚这里面的细节 Yeah. So, uh, I, I don't know the details,
根据 呃 实际上 我不...我 我 in terms of, of, uh, of, um. Uh, in fact, I, I just don't ?I, I.
不管他提供了什么信息 我都不能完全 whatever information he provide, I'm not sure exactly, I, eh, uh
其实是这样 老实说 it's, it's actually, to be honest with you,
我不记得讨论过这种问题 I can't remember the, the, this kind of discussion.
但可以肯定的是 当时确实有问题出现 But certainly, uh, there, there were issues that were, uh, uh, coming up.
但随之而来的是 这些问题有多严重 But then the question is, how pervasive are they?
你们怎么没去调查 Why didn't you try looking?
我认为有人调查过了 I think that people did.
我们有派人调查 We had people looking at,
原因不重要 但我们派了一组人去调查 a whole group of people looking at this,for whatever reason.
抱歉 你肯定是在说笑吧 Excuse me, you can't be serious.
如果你们调查过 肯定会有所发现 If you would have looked, you would have found things.
要知道 说起来容易 Uh, you know, that's very, very easy
肯定会有所发现 这话说起来简单 to always say that you can always find it.
早在2004年年初 As early as 2004,
FBI曾就抵押贷款诈骗流行作出警告 the FBI was already warning about an epidemic of mortgage fraud.
其中提到了夸虚增估价 They reported inflated appraisals,
篡改贷款文件以及其他欺诈活动 doctored loan documentation, and other fraudulent activity.
2005年IMF首席经济学家拉古拉姆·瑞占 In 2005, the IMF's chief economist, Raghuram Rajan,
警告说 危险的刺激奖励机制可能会导致危机 warned that dangerous incentives could lead to a crisis.
然后在2006年 鲁里埃尔·鲁比尼也作出警告 Then came Nouriel Roubini's warnings in 2006
中央银行为何应该戳破泡沫 鲁里埃尔·鲁比尼
2007年艾伦·斯隆 Allan Sloan's articles in
也在《财富杂志》和《华盛顿邮报》上发表文章 fortune magazine and the Washington Post in 2007
论次贷之鸡肋
还有来自IMF不断的警告 and repeated warnings from the IMF.
我代表机构这么说过 I said it, and on behalf of the institution:
多米尼克·斯特劳斯-卡恩 国际货币基金总裁
我们面临的危机是巨大的 ah, the crisis which is in front of us is a huge crisis.
你跟谁说的 Who did you talk to?
政府 财政部 美联储 所有人 The government, Treasury, s-, Fed, everybody.
2007年5月 对冲基金经理比尔·阿克曼 In May of 2007, hedge fund manager Bill Ackman
做了一个报告 题为《谁是幕后黑手》 circulated a presentation called "Who's Holding the Bag?",
描述了泡沫将会如何破灭 which described how the bubble would unravel.
而在2008年初 查尔斯·莫里斯 And in early 2008, Charles Morris
《两万亿的消融》
出版了关于即将到来的危机的著作 published his book about the impending crisis.
钱财轻松得 随意乱挥霍 信用大危机
你不知道该怎么办 You're just not sure, what do you do?
弗雷德里克·米什金 美联储理事(2006-2008)
你或许会怀疑 And you, you might have some suspicions
贷款标准正在降低 that underwriting standards are being weakened
但随后的问题是 你应该有所行动吗 but then the question is, should you do anything about it?
美国抵押回收的房产
到2008年 房产抵押收回量激增 By 2008, home foreclosures were skyrocketing,
证券化食物链断裂 and the securitization food chain imploded.
贷方无法再向投资银行出售贷款 Lenders could no longer sell their loans to the investment banks
而一旦贷款无法偿还 and as the loans went bad,
大量放贷人破产 dozens of lenders failed
花旗银行的查克·普林斯有一句名言 Chuck Prince, of Citibank, famously said that,
乔治·索罗斯 索罗斯基金董事长
音乐不停 我们的舞步就不能停 we have to dance until the music stops.
但其实他说这句话时 音乐已经停了 Actually, the music had stopped already when he said that.
CDO市场崩盘 The market for CDOs collapsed,
让投资银行数千亿美元被套牢 leaving the investment banks holding hundreds of billions of dollars
包括卖不出去的贷款 CDO和不动产 in loans, CDOs, and real estate they couldn't sell.
危机一开始的时候 布什政府 When the crisis started both the Bush administration
和美联储都被蒙在鼓里 and the Federal Reserve were totally behind the curve.
他们不知道范围有多广 They did not understand the extent of it.
你记得是在什么时候 开始意识到 At what point do you remember thinking, for the first time,
克里斯汀.拉嘉德 法国财政部长
这种情况很危险 很糟糕 this is dangerous, this is bad?
我记得很清楚 I remember very well, uh, one
是在2008年2月七国财长会议(G7)上 I think it was a G7 meeting, of February 2008.
我记得我和亨利·保尔森讨论这个问题 And I remember discussing the issue with, with Hank Paulson.
我清楚地记得我跟亨利说 And I clearly remember telling Hank:
我们眼睁睁的看着海啸来临 we are watching this tsunami coming.
你居然还在关心我们该穿上什么泳衣 And you just proposing that we ask which swimming costume we are going to put on.
他是怎么回答的 他有什么感受 What was his response, what was his feeling?
事情还在控制之中 我们正在调查 Things are pretty much under control. Yes, we are looking at,
正在仔细调查 this situation carefully, and uh
都在控制之中 yeah, it's under control.
我们要保持增长 而且很明显 我这么说吧 We're gonna keep growing, okay? And obviously, I'll say it:
2008年2月9日 东京 七国财长会议
如果你还在增长 那就没有衰退 对吗 if you're growing, you're not in recession, right?
这是众所周知的 I mean,we all know that.
保尔森发表此言论四个月前 经济其实就已经开始衰退
2008年3月 贝尔斯登投资银行现金耗尽 In March of 2008, the investment bank Bear Stearns ran out of cash,
并以每股两美元被摩根大通集团收购 and was acquired for two dollars a share by JP Morgan Chase.
这项交易得到美联储 The deal was backed by 30 billion dollars
300亿美元的紧急担保支持 in emergency guarantees from the Federal Reserve.
就在那个时候 政府原本可以介入 That was the time when the administration could have come in,
西蒙·约翰逊 MIT教授 IMF前任首席经济学家
采取各种措施 and put in place various kinds of measures
以降低系统风险 that would have reduced system risk.
据我从一些单位了解的信息来看 The information that I'm receiving from some entities
2008年7月10日 保罗·坎乔斯基(民主党-宾州)
事情还没有结束 还有更多问题会发生 is the end is not here, that there are other shoes to fall.
我看到很多投资银行 I've seen those investment banks
与美联储和证监会合作 working with the Fed and the SEC
来加强贴现能力 to strengthen their liquidity,
来改善资产状况 to strengthen their the, their capital positions.
我经常收到这类报告 I get reports all the time.
我们的监管机构 是高度警觉的 Our regulators are, are very vigilant.
2008年9月7日 On September 7th, 2008
亨利·保尔森宣布联邦政府将收购 Henry Paulson announced the federal takeover
房利美和房地美 of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac,
两家濒临破产的大型房贷机构 two giant mortgage lenders on the brink of collapse.
我们今天的行动 Nothing about our actions today
并不代表房地产业矫正 相较以往有变 in any way reflects a changed view of the housing correction
或其他美国金融机构实力上有任何变化 or the strength of other U.S. Financial institutions.
雷曼股价
两天后 雷曼兄弟报历史最大亏损 Two days later, Lehman Brothers announced record losses
亏损3.2亿美元 股价暴跌 of 3.2 billion dollars, and its stock collapsed.
九月份的雷曼和AIG效应 The effects of Lehman and AIG in September
大卫·麦考密克 布什政府财政部副部长
还是让人始料未及 still came as a surprise.
这还是在七月房利美和房利美事件发生后 I mean, this is even after July, and Fannie and Freddie.
所以很显然 有些情况 而且是重要情况 So clearly, there was stuff that as of September,
直到九月还是没人知道 major stuff that nobody knew about.
我想 可以这么说 I think that's, I think that's fair.
贝尔斯登在破产前一个月 Bear Stearns was rated AAA,
杰罗姆·冯斯 穆迪评级公司前常务董事
仍然是AAA的评级吗 like, a month before it went bankrupt?
-实际上是AA -AA - Uh, more likely A2. - A2.
-是的 -好吧 - Yeah. - Okay.
AA跟破产仍然差很远 A2 is still not bankrupt.
是这样的 No no no. No.
AA是个很高的固定资产投资评级 That's, that's a high investment grade, solid investment-grade rating
雷曼兄弟在破产前也是AA Lehman Brothers, A2, within days of failing.
AIG在接受政府救助时也是AA Um, AIG, AA, within days of being bailed out.
房利美和房地美被拯救时是AAA Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were AAA when they were rescued.
花旗和美林 它们的评级都达到了投资级别 Um, Citigroup, Merrill; all, all of 'em had investment-grade ratings.
这怎么可能呢 How can that be?
这个问题问的好 问的相当好 Well, that's a good question. That's a great question
政府从来没有去所有的大型机构 At no point did the administration ever go to all the major institutions,
大卫·麦考密克 布什政府财政部副部长
说情况很严峻 你们把现状告诉我 and say, this is serious, tell us what your positions are, you know,
别胡扯 情况到底如何 有过吗 uh, no bullshit, where are you?
首先 他们是监管机构 Well, first, that's what the regulators,
那是他们的职责 对吧 that's their job, right?
他们的职责就是去了解 Their job is to understand the exposure
不同机构中存在的问题 across these different institutions,
而且他们了解得非常精准 and they have a very refined, uh, understanding
在我看来 随着危机的继续 that I think became more respon, more refined
而愈加精准 as the crisis, um, proceeded. So...
很抱歉 但这话显然不对 我 Forgive me, but that's clearly not true. I'm
你说这话不对是什么意思 What do you mean, it's not true?
2008年8月时 你是否知晓 In August of 2008, were you aware of the
弗雷德里克·米什金 美联储理事(2006-2008) 哥伦比亚大学经济学院教授
雷曼兄弟 美林银行 the credit ratings held then
和AIG当时的信用级别 by Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch, AIG
你认为这个评价准确吗 and did you think that they were accurate?
当然在那个时候 很明显 Well, uh, er, uh, certainly by that time, it was clear
之前的信用级别不太精确 that that earlier credit ratings were inaccurate,
因为他们的信用级别大体在下降 because they had been downgraded substantially.
没有降 No, they hadn't.
还是有一点 有一点下降的 Uh, there's still, there was still some downgrading,
从整个金融业来看 宏观上... in terms of the, the industry, concerns of the ind-,
股价当然降了 certainly the stock prices
一点都没降 直到他们被救助的前几天 Not some, all those firms were rated at least A2
那些公司都至少是AA级评级 until a couple of days before they, uh, were rescued.
好吧 那我只能说 Well then, you know, then the answer is,
我不 我了解不多 I just don't, don't know enough to
在这个问题上无力为你答疑解惑 really answer your question on this particular issue.
弗雷德里克·米什金理事于8月31日正式辞职 Governor Fred Mishkin is resigning, effective August 31.
他说他打算回到哥伦比亚大学 He says he plans to return to his teaching post
研究生学院的教职岗位 at Columbia's Graduate School of Business.
你为什么在08年8月离开美联储 Why did you leave the Federal Reserve in August of 2008?
就在金融危机最严重的时候 I mean, in, in the middle of the worst financial crisis
美联储还剩哪几位
我要去修正教材 So, so, uh, that, uh, I had to, to revise a textbook.
他的离职使得美联储董事会 His departure leaves the fed board with
在经济最危急之时 three of its seven seats vacant
弗雷德里克·米什金 美联储理事
七个席位空出三个 just when the economy needs it most.
我确信你的教材很重要 而且读者众多 Well, I'm sure your textbook is important and widely read.
但在08年8月 But in August of 2008, you know,
这个世界上 还有更要紧的事情正在发生 some, somewhat more important things were going on in the world,
你不觉得吗 don't you think?
到9月12日 星期五 By Friday, September 12th,
雷曼兄弟现金耗尽 Lehman Brothers had run out of cash,
整个投资银行业正迅速衰退 and the entire investment banking industry was sinking fast.
世界金融体系的稳定也岌岌可危 The stability of the global financial system was in jeopardy.
那个周末 亨利·保尔森和蒂莫西·盖特纳 That weekend, Henry Paulson and Timothy Geithner,
纽约联邦储蓄银行董事长 president of the New York Federal Reserve
潘伟迪 花旗集团CEO
和几大银行的总裁召开了紧急会议 called an emergency meeting with the CEOs of the major banks
麦晋桁 摩根士丹利CEO
目的在于救助雷曼兄弟 in an effort to rescue Lehman.
杰米·戴蒙 摩根大通CEO
但还不止雷曼一家 But Lehman wasn't alone.
劳埃德·布兰克费恩 高盛CEO
美林银行 另一家大型投资银行 Merrill Lynch, another major investment bank,
美林总部
也处在崩溃边缘 was also on the brink of failure.
在那个周日 它被美国银行接管 And that Sunday, it was acquired by Bank of America.
美国银行
只有一家银行有意向收购美林 The only bank interested in buying Lehman
那是英国的巴克莱公司 was the British firm Barclays.
巴克莱银行
但是英国监管机构 But British regulators demanded
要求美国政府进行财务担保 a financial guarantee from the U.S. Government.
保尔森拒绝了 Paulson refused.
雷曼兄弟和联邦政府都没为破产任何做打算
我们一起上了出租车 We all jumped into a yellow cab
哈维·米勒 雷曼公司破产程序律师 威嘉律师事务所
去联邦储备银行 and went down to the Federal Reserve Bank.
他们希望破产事宜 They wanted the bankruptcy case
能在9月14日午夜之前开始 commenced before midnight of September 14.
我们一直强调 这件事可能会很严重 We kept pressing that this would be a, uh, terrible event.
这当中 我还用到了"浩劫"这个词 And at some point, I used the word "Armageddon."
他们是否充分考虑过 Had they fully considered
他们的提议所带来的后果 the consequences of what they were proposing?
这对市场的影响将是巨大的 The effect on the market would be extraordinary.
-这是你说的 -是的 - You said this? - Yes.
他们只说 我们所说的这些 They just said they had considered
他们都已经考虑过 all of the comments that we had made
而且他们仍然确信 and they were still of the belief
为稳定市场 使其继续运行 that in order to calm the markets and move forward
雷曼兄弟就必须宣布破产 it was necessary for Lehman to go into bankruptcy.
-稳定市场 -是的 - Calm the markets? - Yes.
你第一次听说 When were you first told
克里斯汀.拉嘉德 法国财政部长
雷曼兄弟将宣布破产是什么时候 that Lehman in fact was going to go bankrupt?
在破产以后 Ah, after the fact.
破产以后 After the fact?
好吧 Wow. Okay.
你听说这一消息时 什么反应 And what was your reaction when you learned of it?
真要命 Holy cow.
保尔森和伯南克没和其他国家政府商议 Paulson and Bernanke had not consulted with other governments
也不明白其他国家破产法将导致的后果 and didn't understand the consequences of foreign bankruptcy laws.
根据英国法律 Under British law,
2008年9月16日
雷曼兄弟在伦敦的部门必须立即关闭 Lehman's London office had to be closed immediately.
所有的交易都终止了 All transactions came to a halt.
而他们手头有无数 无数 无数的交易 And there are thousands and thousands and thousands of transactions.
那些与雷曼有合作的伦敦对冲基金 The hedge funds who had had assets with Lehman in London
短短一夜之间 如梦魇一般 discovered overnight, to their complete horror,
资产就此套牢其中 拿不回来 that they couldn't get those assets back.
核心集团的一员倒下了 One of the points of the hub failed.
萨蒂亚吉特·达斯 《交易员,枪和钞票》的作者
而且冲击了整个体系 And that had huge knock-on effects around the system.
本国资历最老的货币市场基金 The oldest money market fund in the nation
彭博新闻社
将由现已破产的雷曼兄弟发行的十亿坏账 wrote off roughly three quarters of a billion dollars in bad debt
其中大约四分之三从账面勾销 issued by the now-bankrupt Lehman Brothers.
雷曼兄弟的破产也导致 Lehman's failure also caused
商业票据市场全盘崩溃 a collapse in the commercial paper market,
商业票据 (单位: 十亿)
许多公司都依赖这一市场 which many companies depend on
以便支付运营花销 例如工资 to pay for operating expenses, such as payroll.
这就意味着他们必须裁掉部分员工 That means maybe they have to lay off employees
无法买入材料 they can't buy parts.
导致商业脱离正常轨道 It stops business in its tracks.
突然之间 人们停下脚步说 Suddenly, people stood, and said,
吉莲·邰蒂 《金融时报》美国版总编辑
还有什么我们可以信任 Listen, what can we believe in?
再没什么值得我们相信了 There's nothing we can trust anymore.
同一周 AIG欠信用违约互换持有人 That same week, AIG owed 13 billion dollars
共130亿美元 to holders of credit default swaps
但它拿不出这笔钱 and it didn't have the money.
AIG是核心集团的另外一员 AIG was another hub.
如果AIG停止运行 If AIG had stopped, you know,
沈联涛 中国银监会首席顾问
那么整个行业就要停滞 all planes may have to be, you know, stop flying.
9月17日 AIG由政府接管 On September 17th, AIG is taken over by the government.
一天以后 保尔森和伯南克 And one day later, Paulson and Bernanke
向国会要求政府拨出七千亿救助这些银行 ask Congress for 700 billion dollars to bail out the banks.
他们警示说如果不救助 They warn that the alternative
将导致灾难性的金融崩盘 would be a catastrophic financial collapse.
太可怕了 整个体系完全冻结 It was scary. You know, the entire system froze up
金融体系内各方各面 every part of the financial system,
信贷体系内各方各面 every part of the credit system.
所有人都借不到钱 Nobody could borrow money.
如同全球金融体系心脏骤停一般 It was like a cardiac arrest of the global financial system.
如今我只能兵来将挡 水来土掩 I'm playing the hand that was dealt me.
2008年9月15日
我现在要处理的这些问题 A lot of what I am dealing with, you know,
很多都是由多年前的行为 I'm dealing with the consequences of things that were done,
所导致的后果 often, many years ago.
保尔森部长讲述了崩盘的经过 Secretary Paulson spoke throughout the fall.
还有所有可能引发它的原因 And all the potential root causes of this
他说了很多原因 and there are plenty he called 'em.
大卫·麦考密克 布什政府财政部副部长
所以 我不是很确定 So I, I'm not sure...
你这是在开玩笑 对吗 You're not being serious about that, are you?
我很严肃 那你觉得应该怎样 I am being serious. What, what would you have expected?
我 那么 有什么与你预期不符的地方吗 I'm, what are, what were you looking for that you didn't see?
他本人就是资深拥趸 He was the senior advocate
鼓吹禁止监管信用违约互换 for prohibiting the regulation of credit default swaps
提高投资银行的举债经营比 and also lifting the leverage limits on the investment banks.
-还是那句话 -他提过这些吗 - So a-, again, what - He mentioned those things?
我没听过他提起这些 I never heard him mention those things.
能把那个关一会儿吗 C-, can we turn this off for a second?
亨利·保尔森拒绝接受本片访问
AIG被救助脱离困境后 When AIG was bailed out,
信用违约互换的持有者 the owners of its credit default swaps
高盛公司作为其中最具影响力的一员 the most prominent of which was Goldman Sachs
第二天就收到610亿美金 were paid 61 billion dollars the next day.
保尔森 伯南克和蒂姆·盖特纳强迫AIG Paulson, Bernanke, and Tim Geithner forced AIG
全额付清 to pay 100 cents on the dollar,
而非协商低价 rather than negotiate lower prices
最终 救助AIG Eventually, the AIG bailout
共耗费纳税人超过1500亿美金 cost taxpayers over 150 billion dollars.
1600亿流向AIG A hundred and sixty billion dollars went through AIG
麦克尔·格林伯格 美国商品期货交易委员会 前任副会长(1997-2000)
140亿流向高盛 14 billion went to Goldman Sachs.
与此同时 保尔森和盖特纳迫使AIG At the same time, Paulson and Geithner forced AIG
放弃以欺诈罪名对高盛 to surrender its right to sue Goldman
和其他几家银行的起诉权 and the other banks for fraud
这种情况合理吗 Isn't there a problem when
负责处理此次危急的人 the person in charge of dealing with this crisis
正是高盛公司CEO is the former CEO of Goldman Sachs
而高盛本身就是引起危机的罪魁之一 someone who had a major role in causing it?
我觉得应该这么说 如今的金融市场 Well, I think it's fair to say that the financial markets today
非常的复杂 are incredibly complicated.
...供给急需用钱 ...supply urgently needed money...
2008年10月4日 布什总统 On October 4th, 2008, President Bush
签署了七千亿的救助法案 signs a 700-billion-dollar bailout bill.
但世界股市仍持续下跌 But world stock markets continue to fall,
全球经济衰退的恐惧即将弥漫开来 amid fears that a global recession is now underway.
但救助法案对于遏制 The bailout legislation does nothing
大幅裁员和抵押收回并无作用 to stem the tide of layoffs and foreclosures.
美国和欧洲的失业率 Unemployment in the United states and Europe
飞速增长到百分之十 quickly rises to 10 percent.
经济衰退不断加速 并向全球蔓延 The recession accelerates, and spreads globally.
那时候我真开始怕了 I began to get really scared,
查尔斯·莫里斯 《两万亿的消融》作者
因为我没有预见到 'cause I hadn't foreseen
会出现全球同步的迅速衰退 the whole world going down at the same rate at the same time.
到2008年12月 通用汽车和克莱斯勒 By December of 2008, General Motors and Chrysler
也面临破产 are facing bankruptcy.
同时 随着美国消费者缩减消费 And as U.S. Consumers cut back on spending,
中国制造商眼看着销量剧减 Chinese manufacturers see sales plummet.
超过一千万中国农民工失业 Over 10 million migrant workers in China lose their jobs.
一如既往 到最后 总是底层人民损失最大 At the end of the day, the poorest, as always, pay the most.
中国宏大灯饰工厂 中国广东省
你在这里可以挣很多钱 差不多 Here you can earn a lot of money, like, uh,
一个月七八十美金 70, 80, uh, U.S. dollars per month.
乔安娜·徐 原工厂工人
在乡下当农民的话挣不到这么多钱 As a farmer in the countryside, you cannot earn as much money.
工人们都把钱寄回家乡 The workers just wire their salaries to their hometown.
给他们的家人 To give to their families.
那时美国开始出现危机 The crisis started in America.
我们都知道危机会蔓延到中国 We all know it will be coming to China.
一些工厂想裁掉一部分工人 Some of the factories try to cut off some workers.
一些人会因为失业而更加贫穷 Some people will get poor because they'll lose their jobs.
生活更加艰难 Lives get harder.
新加坡
我们以百分之二十的速度增长 We were growing at about 20 percent.
年景非常好 It was a super year.
帕特里克·丹尼尔 新加坡报业控股集团总编
然后这个季度突然就变为以9个百分点负增长 And then we suddenly went to minus nine this quarter.
出口额锐减 差不多百分之三十 Exports collapsed. And we're talking like 30 percent.
所以我们受到了重创 像是从悬崖跌落 So we just took a hit, you know, fell off a cliff, boom!
即便是在危机开始后 Even as the crisis unfolded,
李显龙 新加坡总理
我们还是不知其影响面会有多大 we didn't know how wide it was going to spread,
影响力会有多严重 or how severe it was going to be.
当时还是希望会有办法 And we were still hoping that there would be some
找到庇护 way for us to have a shelter
不受到那么大的损害 and be, uh, less battered by the storm.
但这是不可能的 But it is not possible.
如今全球一体化 经济紧密相联 It's a very globalized world the economies are all linked together.
到2010年初美国抵押回收达到六百万
一旦有房子被抵押收回 Every time a home goes into foreclosure,
埃里克·霍珀林 责任贷款中心华盛顿办公室主任
住在这所房子周围的人都会受影响 it affects everyone who lives around that house.
因为这一房产进入市场后 'Cause when that property goes on the market,
将会被低价出售 it's gonna be sold at a lower price
也许在其进入市场之前 维护状况就不好 maybe before it goes on the market, it won't be well maintained.
我们估计还会有九百万房主失去房产 We estimate another 9 million homeowners will lose their homes.
有一次周末 我们去看有哪些房子出售 We went out on a weekend to see what houses were for sale.
科伦巴·拉莫斯 加州圣何塞
我们看见一间中意的 We saw one we liked.
需要支付3200美金 The payment was going to be $3,200.
科伦巴·拉莫斯和她的丈夫不会英语
他们被掠夺性贷款人雇佣的抵押经纪欺骗了
所有的事物都很美好 房子也很不错 Everything was beautiful, the house was very pretty.
价格也很便宜 一切都 The payment low. Everything was...
简直像中彩一样 We won the lottery.
但实际上 当第一期的付款下来的时候 But the reality was when the first payment arrived.
购买价格九十五万美元
每月支付5938.33美金
我真替我丈夫感到难过 I felt very bad for my husband...
因为他工作太辛苦了 我们还有三个孩子 ...because he works too much. And we have three children.
帐篷城 佛州皮尼拉斯县
我最近见到的很多人 The vast majority I've seen lately, unfortunately,
埃里克·伊万诺斯卡斯 天主教慈善会志愿者
都是在金融危机中受创 非常不幸 are people who have just been hurt by the economy.
他们日复一日 靠着微薄薪水过活 They were living, you know, day to day, paycheck to paycheck,
不幸的是 连这点薪水也没有了 and unfortunately, that ran out.
失业了就付不了房屋按揭 And unemployment isn't gonna pay a house mortgage
也付不了汽车账单 it's not gonna pay a car bill.
我曾是木材叉车司机 I was a log-truck driver.
现在都关闭了 And they shut down,
斯蒂芬·A·斯蒂芬 曾是建筑工人
他们把所有伐木系统都关闭了 they shut down all the logging systems up there
锯木厂之类的都关了 shut down the sawmills and everything.
所以我搬来这里 当建筑工人 So I moved down here, I had a construction job.
然后建筑工程也停了 情况就糟糕了 And the construction jobs got shut down too so things are so tough
这样的人还有很多 there's a lot o' people out there,
很快就会有越来越多这种帐篷出现在周围 and pretty soon you're gonna be seeing more camps like this around
因为现在已经没有工作可做了 because there's just no jobs right now.
第四部分: 问责
公司情况好 When the company did well,
理查德·福尔德 雷曼兄弟公司CEO
我们就好 we did well.
如果公司情况不好 先生 When the company did not do well, sir,
我们也就不好 we did not do well.
那些一手毁掉自己的公司 The men who destroyed their own companies
美林银行
并让世界陷入危机的人 and plunged the world into crisis
得以在混乱中全身而退 财富毫发无损 walked away from the wreckage with their fortunes intact.
雷曼兄弟的五大高管 The top five executives at Lehman Brothers
雷曼兄弟五大高管的分红和股票
在2000年至2007年间 赚了十多亿美金 made over a billion dollars between 2000 and 2007
当公司破产后 and when the firm went bankrupt
他们得以全额保留这笔财富 they got to keep all the money.
体制运行良好 The system worked.
我们不可能明知贷款无法收回 还去放贷 It doesn't make any sense for us to make a loan that's gonna fail,
安吉罗·莫兹罗 国家金融服务公司CEO
因为我们会亏损 他们会损失 'cause we lose, they lose,
借方会损失 团体会损失 到头来我们还是损失 the borrower loses, the community loses, and we lose.
国家金融服务公司总裁安吉罗·莫兹罗 Countrywide's CEO Angelo Mozilo
在2003年至2008年间赚得四亿七千万美金 made 470 million dollars between 2003 and 2008.
其中一亿四千万 One hundred forty million
得益于在公司崩溃前十二个月里 came from dumping his Countrywide stock
抛售的国家金融服务公司股票 in the 12 months before the company collapsed.
究其最终 公司亏损责任在于董事会 Ultimately, I hold the board accountable when a business fails.
因为董事会负责任命和卸任总裁 'Cause the board is responsible for hiring and firing the CEO
做出重大战略决策 and overseeing big strategic decisions.
美国董事会结构的问题在于 The problem with board composition in America
董事会选举的方式 is the way boards are elected.
很多情况下 董事会是由总裁选出的 The boards are pretty much, in many cases, picked by the CEO.
董事会和薪酬委员会 The board of directors and the compensation committees
斯科特·塔波特 美国金融服务业圆桌组织首席说客
是最适宜决定 are the two bodies best situated
高管薪酬的两个部门 to determine the pay packages, uh, for executives.
你觉得过去十年 他们工作做得如何 How do you think they've done over the past 10 years?
我认为 这方面的话 Well, I think that, if you look at those,
我的评分是"良" 因为 uh, in, I would give about a B. Because...
-"良"? -是的 - A B? - Yes.
-不是"不及格"吗 -没有 不是 - Not an F. - Not an F, not an F.
美林银行总裁斯坦利·奥尼尔 Stan O'Neal, the CEO of Merrill Lynch
单在2006年到2007年间 就获利九千万美金 received 90 million dollars in 2006 and 2007 alone
搞垮公司后 After driving his firm into the ground
美林董事会允许他辞职 Merrill Lynch's board of directors allowed him to resign
股票:一亿三千一百万 现金: 三千万
他分批次收到一亿六千一百万美金 and he collected 161 million dollars in severance.
斯坦利·奥尼尔没被解雇 反被允许辞职 Instead of being fired, Stan O'Neal is allowed to resign
还带走一亿五千一百万美金 and takes away 151 million dollars.
这是董事会当时做出的决定 That's a decision that that board of directors made at that point.
你给这个决定打多少分 And what grade do you give that decision?
这个比较困难 Uh, that's a tougher one.
这个我可能就不会给"良"了 I don't know if I would give that one a B as well.
奥尼尔的继任者约翰·赛恩 O'Neal's successor, John Thain,
在2007年获利八千七百万 并于2008年12月 was paid 87 million dollars in 2007 and in December of 2008,
也就是美林被纳税人救助之后两个月 two months after Merrill was bailed out by U.S. Taxpayers
赛恩和美林董事会拿出数十亿美元分红 Thain and Merrill's board handed out billions in bonuses.
美林分红高达三十六亿
2008年5月 In March of 2008
AIG净收入 单位: 十亿
AIG金融产品部损失110亿美金 AIG's Financial Products Division lost 11 billion dollars
当时的金融产品部主管约瑟夫·卡萨诺并未被解雇 Instead of being fired, Joseph Cassano, the head of AIGFP
而是作为顾问 was kept on as a consultant
拿着几百万月薪留了下来 for a million dollars a month.
要把核心管理层 And you want to make sure that the key players
和核心雇员留在AIG金融产品部 and the key, key employees, uh, within AIGFP
是的 我们要把这种智力资源保留 yeah, we retain that intellectual knowledge.
我出席过一次很有趣的晚宴 I attended a very interesting, uh, dinner,
多米尼克·斯特劳斯-卡恩 国际货币基金总裁
是一年多以前 由亨利·保尔森组织的 organized by Hank Paulson a little more than one year ago
一起出席的还有一些官员和一些 with some officials and a couple of,uh,
美国大银行的总裁 CEOs from the biggest, uh, banks in the U.S.
出乎意料的是 这些先生 And uh, surprisingly enough, all these gentlemen
都说我们太贪心了 were arguing we were too greedy,
所以我们也是有部分责任 行 so we have part responsibility. Fine.
然后他们又把矛头指向财政部 And then they were turning to the treasurer,
指向财政部部长 to the secretary of the Treasury,
说你应该多监管一些 因为我们太贪心了 and say, you should regulate more because we are too greedy,
贪心我们改不了 we can't avoid it.
所以为避免这种状况 只能多加监管 The only way to avoid this is to have more regulation.
我跟很多银行家谈论过这个问题 I have spoken to many bankers about this question,
包括一些非常资深的银行家 including very senior ones.
这还是我第一次听人说 And this is the first time that I've ever heard anybody say
他们希望有人监管自己的薪酬 that they actually wanted their compensation to be regulated.
对 因为就在那时候 他们害怕了 Yeah, because it was at the moment where they were afraid.
之后 一旦出现解决危机的办法 And after, when solution to the crisis began to appear
他们可能就会改变主意 then probably they, they changed their mind.
如今美国的银行 规模空前巨大 实力空前雄厚 In the U.S., the banks are now bigger, more powerful,
权力空前集中 and more concentrated than ever before.
他们几乎没有对手 很多小一点的银行 There are fewer competitors, and a lot of smaller banks
马丁·沃尔夫 《金融时报》首席经济评论员
都被大银行收购了 have been taken over by big ones.
摩根大通如今的规模比以前还要大 JP Morgan today is even bigger than it was before.
摩根大通先收购了贝尔斯登 然后是华盛顿互惠 JP Morgan took over first Bear Stearns and then WAMU
美国银行收购了国家金融和美林银行 Bank of America took over Countrywide and Merrill Lynch
富国银行收购了美联银行 Wells Fargo took over Wachovia.
危机过后 金融业 After the crisis, the financial industry
包括金融服务圆桌组织 including the Financial Services Roundtable
愈加致力于反击改革 worked harder than ever to fight reform.
金融业雇佣了三千名说客 The financial sector employs 3,000 lobbyists
这个数量比国会成员五倍还多 more than five for each member of Congress.
你是否认为在美国 Do you think the financial services industry
金融服务行业的政治影响力过大 has excessive political influence in the United States?
不 我认为每个人 No. I think that every person in, in the w-,
华府代表了每个公民的利益 in the country is represented here in Washington.
你认为美国社会的各个阶层 And you think that all segments of American society
都有平等机会进入这个体制 have equal and fair access to the system?
听证室对所有人都是开放的 The, you can walk into any hearing room, uh, that you would like.
我认为是平等的 Yes, I do.
听证室确实对所有人开放 Um, one could walk into any hearing room,
但不是每个人都能 one can not necessarily write
像你们行业那样花钱请说客 the kind of lobbying checks that your industry writes
或是像你们行业那样 or engage in the level of
给出到那种数额的政治献金 political contributions that your industry engages in.
在1998年至2008年间 Between 1998 and 2008
金融业花费了超过五十亿美金 the financial industry spent over 5 billion dollars
用于游说和竞选赞助 on lobbying and campaign contributions.
而由于危机的发生 此项花费愈增 And since the crisis, they're spending even more money.
金融业还以一种更加精巧的途径扩大影响 The financial industry also exerts its influence in a more subtle way
这一途径并不为美国普罗大众所知 one that most Americans don't know about.
哈佛大学
它已侵染进了金融学本身 It has corrupted the study of economics itself.
哥伦比亚大学
放松管制拥有巨大的经济和智力支持 Deregulation had tremendous financial and intellectual support.
因为人们为了自己的利益极力主张 Because, uh, uh, people argued it for their own benefit.
经济学界是这种假象的主要制造源 Economics profession was the main source of that illusion.
自20世纪80年代以来 理论经济学家 Since the 1980s, academic economists
就一直是放松管制的主要鼓吹者 have been major advocates of deregulation,
并在美国政府政策制定中起着重大作用 and played powerful roles in shaping U.S. Government policy.
少有经济学专家发出关于危机的警告 Very few of these economic experts warned about the crisis.
即使在危机之后 And even after the crisis,
很多专家仍反对改革 many of them opposed reform.
教授金融学的这些人 The guys who taught these things
更愿意拿着丰厚薪酬当顾问 tended to get paid a lot of money being consultants.
商学院的教授并不靠教师工资生活 Business school professors don't live on a faculty salary.
他们过得非常富足 They do very, very well.
在过去十年 金融服务业 Over the last decade, the financial services industry
马丁·费尔德斯坦 哈佛大学经济学教授
共拿出了50亿美元 has made about 5 billion dollars' worth of
用于美国政治献金 political contributions in the United States.
那可是一大笔钱 That's kind of a lot of money.
你不会为此感到不安吗 That doesn't bother you?
不会 No.
马丁·费尔德斯坦是哈佛大学的教授 Martin Feldstein is a professor at Harvard,
也是世界上最著名的经济学家之一 and one of the world's most prominent economists.
作为里根总统的首席经济顾问 As President Reagan's chief economic advisor,
他是放松管制的主要缔造者 he was a major architect of deregulation.
1988年至2009年间 他同时任职于 And from 1988 until 2009, he was
AIG和AIG金融产品部董事会 on the board of directors of both AIG and AIG Financial Products,
为此获得百万薪酬 which paid him millions of dollars.
你后悔进入AIG的董事会吗 You have any regrets about having been on AIG's board?
无可奉告 不 我不后悔 I have no comments. No, I have no regrets
任职于AIG的董事会 about being on AIG's board.
-没有 -我能说一点都没有 - None. - That I can say, absolutely none. Absolutely none.
好的 那 Okay. Um,
对于AIG的决策你是否有遗憾 You have any regrets about, uh, AIG's decisions?
我不想再讨论AIG了 I cannot say anything more about AIG.
我曾任教于西北大学 芝加哥大学 I've taught at Northwestern and Chicago,
格伦.哈伯德 布什政府首席经济顾问 哥伦比亚商学院院长
哈佛大学和哥伦比亚大学 Harvard and Columbia.
格伦.哈伯德现任哥伦比亚大学商学院院长 Glenn Hubbard is the dean of Columbia Business School and was the
曾任布什政府经济顾问委员会主席 chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers under George W. Bush.
你是否认为在美国 Do you think the financial services industry
金融服务行业的政治影响力过大 has too much, uh, political power in the United States?
我不这么认为 很显然 I don't think so, no. You certainly,
金融业经常在华府受挫 you certainly wouldn't get that impression
根据这一点就显然得不出这个结论 by the drubbing that they regularly get, uh, in Washington.
很多杰出学者通过帮金融业策划公众议题 Many prominent academics quietly make fortunes while helping
帮助政府制定政策不声不响地赚了大钱 the financial industry shape public debate and government policy.
安诺国际咨询公司 The Analysis Group,
查尔斯·里弗顾问公司 Charles River Associates,
Compass Lexecon咨询公司 Compass Lexecon,
还有法律经济咨询集团 and the Law and Economics Consulting Group
经营着一项价值几十亿的产业 manage a multi-billion-dollar industry
专为各大公司提供学术专家 that provides academic experts for hire.
接受这一服务的银行家中有两位 Two bankers who used these services
分别是拉尔夫·乔菲和马修·坦尼 were Ralph Cioffi and Matthew Tannin,
他们是贝尔斯登对冲基金经理 Bear Stearns hedge fund managers
因证券欺诈被提起公诉 prosecuted for securities fraud.
雇佣安诺国际咨询公司后 After hiring The Analysis Group,
他们都被无罪释放 both were acquitted.
格伦.哈伯德因出庭作证为其辩护 Glenn Hubbard was paid 100,000 dollars
获得十万美金 to testify in their defense.
你认为经济学这门学科 Do you think that the economics discipline has, uh,
格伦.哈伯德 布什政府首席经济顾问 哥伦比亚商学院院长
有利益冲突问题吗 a conflict of interest problem?
我不太清楚你什么意思 I'm not sure I know what you mean.
经济学科中很大一部分 Do you think that a significant fraction of the economics discipline,
以及许多经济学家都牵涉利益纠葛 a number of economists, have financial conflicts of interests
你认为这是否会在某种程度上引起质疑或是... that in some way might call into question or color
我明白你的意思 但我不这样想 Oh, I see what you're saying. I doubt it.
大多数经济学家 You know, most academic economists,
并不是富有的商界人士 uh, you know, aren't wealthy business people.
哈伯德作为大都会人寿保险董事 Hubbard makes 250,000 dollars a year
罗伯特·格伦·哈伯德 个人履历
年薪25万美元 as a board member of Met Life
之前供职于嘉迈资融公司董事会 and was formerly on the board of Capmark,
一家诞生于泡沫经济中的商业借贷公司 a major commercial mortgage lender during the bubble,
于2009年破产 which went bankrupt in 2009.
他还是野村证券 He has also advised Nomura Securities,
KKR金融集团 KKR Financial Corporation,
还有很多其它金融公司的顾问 and many other financial firms.
劳拉·泰森 拒绝了本片的采访 Laura Tyson, who declined to be interviewed for this film,
她是加州大学伯克利分校的教授 is a professor at the University of California, Berkeley.
她先后供职于克林顿政府经济顾问协会 She was the chair of the Council of Economic Advisers,
和国家经济委员会 and then director of the National Economic Council
担任主席 in the Clinton administration.
离开政府部门不久 Shortly after leaving government,
她就加入了摩根·斯坦利董事会 she joined the board of Morgan Stanley
年薪35万美元 which pays her 350,000 dollars a year.
鲁斯·西蒙斯 布朗大学校长 Ruth Simmons, the president of Brown University,
供职于高盛公司董事会 makes over 300,000 dollars a year
年薪30万美元 on the board of Goldman Sachs.
拉里·萨默斯 作为财政部长 Larry Summers, who as Treasury secretary
在推行衍生品市场自由化中扮演了重要角色 played a critical role in the deregulation of derivatives
于2001年就任哈佛大学校长 became president of Harvard in 2001
他任职哈佛大学期间 While at Harvard,
为对冲基金咨询获利上百万 he made millions consulting to hedge funds
演说费则更加丰厚 and millions more in speaking fees,
其中多由投行支付 much of it from investment banks.
根据关于他的联邦调查报告 According to his federal disclosure report,
萨默斯的净资产在1650万 Summers's net worth is between 16.5
到3950万美元之间 million and 39.5 million dollars.
弗雷德里克·米什金 在离开美联储之后 Frederic Mishkin, who returned to Columbia Business School
回到了哥伦比亚商学院 after leaving the Federal Reserve,
他的联邦调查报告显示其净资产 reported on his federal disclosure report
在600万到1700万美元之间 that his net worth was between 6 million and 17 million dollars.
2006年 你以共同一作的身份 In 2006, you coauthored a study
弗雷德里克·米什金 美联储理事(2006-2008) 哥伦比亚大学商学院教授
-发表了关于冰岛金融体系的报告 -没错 - of Iceland's financial system. - Right, right.
冰岛同样是一个拥有良好基建 Iceland is also an advanced country with excellent institutions,
冰岛金融的稳定性 弗里德里克·米什金&特里格维·赫伯森
低腐败率和健全法制的国家 low corruption, rule of law.
其经济已经适应了金融自由化 The economy has already adjusted to financial liberalization
与此同时 审慎的监管 while prudential regulation
与督导也有非常强有力 and supervision is generally quite strong.
对 错误就出在这一句上 结果表明 Yeah. And that was the mistake. That it turns out that, uh,
冰岛的审慎监管 that the prudential regulation
和督导并不是很有力 and supervision was not strong in Iceland.
尤其是在这个时期 And particularly during this period...
那你当时为什么这么想 So what led you to think that it was?
根据当时的所掌握的信息 I think that, uh, you're going with the information you have at
还有所看到的 and generally, uh, the view was that, that, uh,
冰岛确实拥有良好基建 Iceland had very good institutions.
它也曾是一个非常发达的国家 It was a very advanced country
你是怎么知道的 你做了什么样的研究 Who told you that? Who did, what kind of research did you do?
跟人交流所得 you, you talk to people,
而且对中央银行有信心 you have faith in, in, uh the Central Bank
但它最后马失前蹄了 which actually did fall down on the job.
很显然 这个吧 Uh, that, uh, clearly, it, this, uh
你为什么会对中央银行有信心 Why do you have "Faith" in a central bank?
这种信心吧 来源于 Well, that faith, you, ya, d-, because you ha-,
我所掌握的信息 go with the information you have.
写这篇文章你得到了多少稿酬 Um, how much were you paid to write it?
我得到了...我想具体的数额 I was paid, uh, I think the number was, uh,
你是可以查到的 it's public information
弗里德里克·米什金因撰写这篇论文 从冰岛商业协会得到了12万4千美元的报酬
在你的简历中 这个报告的题目 Uh, on your CV, the title of this report has been
从《冰岛金融的稳定性》 changed from "Financial Stability
变成了《冰岛金融的不稳定性》 in Iceland" To "Financial Instability in Iceland."
我不知道这事 我估计吧 Oh. Well, I don't know, if, itch-, whatever it is, is, the, uh
这应该是印刷错误 没错 是这样 thing ?If it's a typo, there's a typo.
格伦·哈伯德 哥伦比亚商学院院长
我认为有一点必须公开 I think what should be publicly available is
那就是不论任何人做何种研究 whenever anybody does research on a topic
研究者必须说明他们自身 they disclose if they have
与这个研究课题是否有利益冲突 any financial conflict with that research.
但我记得没有特别针对这种情况的政策 But if I recall, there is no policy to that effect.
在我看来 发表文章的时候 I can't imagine anybody not doing that
大家都会遵守这一点 in terms of putting it in a paper.
如果有违反的话 You would, there would be significant
会受到业界严厉制裁 professional sanction for failure to do that.
在这篇文章中 I didn't see any place in the study where
没见你提起之所以撰写此文 you indicated that you had been paid, uh,
是受冰岛商业协会之托 且收受了报酬 by the Icelandic Chamber of Commerce to produce it.
-对 没提 -好的 - No, I - Okay.
理查德·波茨 英国最著名的经济学家 Richard Portes, the most famous economist in Britain
也是伦敦商学院教授 and a professor at London Business School
在2007年 was also commissioned by
冰岛金融业的国际化 波茨&巴尔迪松
他同样受冰岛商业协会所托 the Icelandic Chamber of Commerce in 2007
撰写了一份赞誉冰岛金融业的报告 to write a report which praised the Icelandic financial sector
银行本身有很好的贴现能力 The banks themselves are highly liquid.
他们在冰岛克朗贬值时依旧盈利 They've actually made money on the fall of the Icelandic krona.
他们是有实力的银行 他们的基金 These are strong banks, their funding,
和市场基金来年依然坚挺 their market funding is assured for the coming year.
他们的运营情况非常好 These are well-run banks.
理查德 非常感谢 Richard, thank you so much.
与米什金一样 波茨在报告中 Like Mishkin, Portes's report
也没有公开 didn't disclose his payment
他从冰岛商业协会得到报酬这一事实 from the Icelandic Chamber of Commerce.
哈佛大学有要求作者在发表论文时 Does Harvard require disclosures
约翰·坎贝尔 哈佛经济学院主席
公开其中的利益瓜葛吗 of financial conflict of interest in publications?
据我所知没有 Um, not to my knowledge.
你会要求学者们公开因走穴活动 Do you require people to report the compensation
-而获得的报酬吗 -不会 - they received from outside activities? - No
你难道不觉得这有问题吗 Don't you think that's a problem?
我不觉得 I don't see why.
马丁·费尔德斯坦身处AIG董事会 Martin Feldstein being on the board of AIG
劳拉·泰森身处摩根·斯坦利董事会 Laura Tyson going on the board of Morgan Stanley
拉里·萨默斯担任金融服务公司顾问 Larry Summers making 10 million dollars a year
年入一千万 consulting to financial services firms
无关紧要吗 irrelevant
是的 可以说无关紧要 Well ?Yeah, basically irrelevant.
你撰写了很多文章 You've written a very large number of articles
马丁·费尔德斯 AIG&AIG金融产品部董事 哈佛经济学教授
涉及的领域很广 about a very wide array of subjects.
你从来不觉得应该调查一下 You never saw fit to investigate the risks
自由化信用违约互换的风险吗 of unregulated credit default swaps?
从来不觉得 I never did.
同样的 关于高管薪酬你的看法呢 Same question with regard to executive compensation
公司行政管理呢 the regulation of corporate governance
政治献金的影响呢 the effect of political contributions...
你到底要问什么 What, uh, what, uh, w-,
关于这些话题 I don't know that I would have anything
我没什么好说的 to add to those discussions.
我手上有份你的简历 I'm looking at your resume now.
看起来你除教职之外 It looks to me as if the majority
在外主要是担任 of your outside activities are, uh
金融服务业顾问 consulting and directorship arrangements with
或者是从事管理工作 the financial services industry.
你对这种描述有异议吗 Is that, would you not agree with that characterization?
不同意 据我所知 No, to my knowledge,
我的简历上并没有列出 I don't think my consulting clients
我为之提供咨询的客户 are even on my CV, so
那么你都为哪些客户提供咨询 Uh, who are your consulting clients?
我认为没必要跟你说这个 I don't believe I have to discuss that with you.
好吧 Okay.
再过几分钟采访就要结束了 Look, you have a few more minutes, and the interview is over
你担任过金融服务公司的顾问吗 Do you consult for any financial services firms?
担任过 Uh, the answer is, I do.
-那么...-但是 - And... - And, but I d-,
关于这点 我不想详谈 I do not want to go into details about that.
是否包括其它金融服务公司 Do they include other financial services firms?
有可能 Possibly.
你不记得了吗 You don't remember?
先生 这不是在审讯 This isn't a deposition, sir.
让你采访已经给你面子了 I was polite enough to give you time,
现在看来 真是犯傻 foolishly, I now see.
但你还有三分钟时间 But you have three more minutes.
好好利用 Give it your best shot.
2004年 也就是泡沫经济的最顶峰 In 2004, at the height of the bubble,
格伦·哈伯德与威廉·C·杜德利合作发表了 Glenn Hubbard coauthored a widely read paper
一篇广为人知的文章 with William C. Dudley
后者是高盛集团首席经济学家 the chief economist of Goldman Sachs.
在文章中 哈伯德盛赞信用衍生产品 In the paper, Hubbard praised credit derivatives
以及证券链 and the securitization chain
声称他们改善了资本分配 stating that they had improved allocation of capital,
提高了金融稳定性 and were enhancing financial stability.
他称赞其抑制了经济的波动性 He cited reduced volatility in the economy
同时表示经济衰退 and stated that recessions
已经逐渐减少变弱 had become less frequent and milder.
信用衍生产品保护了银行免于破产 Credit derivatives were protecting banks against losses
并分散了风险 and helping to distribute risk.
如果一位医学研究者撰文道 A medical researcher writes an article, saying:
约翰·坎贝尔 哈佛经济学院主席
要治这个病就必须服用这个药 to treat this disease, you should prescribe this drug.
而事实上医生百分之八十的收入 It turns out Doctor makes 80 percent of
都来自于该药的生产商 personal income from manufacturer of this drug.
你不觉得不妥吗 Does not bother you?
我觉得 开诚布公当然很重要 I think, uh, it's certainly important to disclose
但这和我们现在所说的事情 Well, I think that's also a little different from cases
还是有些区别的 因为... that we are talking about here. Because, um ?Um
哈佛大学和哥伦比亚大学校长 均拒绝对学术利益瓜葛发表评论
二人都拒绝接受本片的采访
你认为这反映了 So, uh, what do you think this says
查尔斯·莫里斯 《两万亿的消融》作者
经济学科一个什么样的现状 about the economics discipline?
这其实没什么关系 Well, heh heh, it has no relevance to anything, really
事实上 我想 它是整个问题... And indeed, I think, um, it's a part of the, it's a
非常重要的一部分 important part of the problem
第五部分: 现状
美国金融业的日渐强势 The rising power of the U.S. Financial sector
是美国大变革背景的一部分 was part of a wider change in America.
自上世纪80年代起 美国社会 Since the 1980s, the United States has become
便愈加不平等 a more unequal society,
其经济优势也在衰退 and its economic dominance has declined.
如通用汽车 克莱斯勒 美国钢材 Companies like General Motors, Chrysler, and U.S. Steel
这些曾是美国经济核心的企业 因经营不善 formerly the core of the U.S. Economy were poorly managed
落在了国外竞争者的后面 and falling behind their foreign competitors.
随着中国等国家经济的开放 And as countries like China opened their economies,
美国公司为节省开支而将工厂移至海外 American companies sent jobs overseas to save money.
很多年以来 For many, many years,
发达国家里的六亿六千万人民 the 660 million people in the developed world
相比于这个星球上 were effectively sheltered
其他国家的劳动力 from all of this additional labor
得到了有效的庇护 that existed on the planet
突然间 这些庇护全部消失 Suddenly, the Bamboo Curtain and the Iron Curtain are lifted
一瞬间多出了25亿劳动力 and you have 2.5 billion additional people
成千上万的美国工人被裁 American factory workers were laid off by the tens of thousands
我们的制造业基础 Our manufacturing base was destroyed,
在几年内便土崩瓦解 literally over the course of a few years.
制造业衰退的同时 其他产业也在崛起 As manufacturing declined, other industries rose.
美国作为信息产业的世界领头羊 The United States leads the world in information technology,
其中高薪职位俯仰即是 where high-paying jobs are easy to find.
但这些职位都需要高学历 But those jobs require an education.
而对于普通美国人来说 And for average Americans,
大学变得越来越遥不可及 college is increasingly out of reach.
像哈佛大学这样的顶级私立大学 While top private universities like Harvard
哈佛大学捐助增长 (单位: 十亿)
能够获得数十亿的捐助 have billions of dollars in their endowments
而对公立大学的拨款不断缩水 funding for public universities is shrinking,
学费则不断上涨 and tuition is rising.
加州公立大学的学费 Tuition for California's public universities
在70年代只有650美元 rose from 650 dollars in the 1970s
而在2010年则涨到了1万美元 to over 10,000 dollars in 2010.
逐渐地 美国人能否上大学 Increasingly, the most important determinant
决定性因素变成了 of whether Americans go to college
他是否承担得起学费 is whether they can find the money to pay for it.
与此同时 美国税收政策 Meanwhile, American tax policy shifted
逐渐倒向富人 to favor the wealthy
当我刚上任时 When I first came to office,
2006年10月11日
便认为税收太高了 事实也的确如此 I thought taxes were too high, and they were.
其中最引人注目的改变 The most dramatic change
便是由时任布什政府首席经济顾问的 was a series of tax cuts designed by Glenn Hubbard
格伦·哈伯德所设计的 who at the time was serving
一系列的减税政策 as President Bush's chief economic advisor
布什政府 The Bush administration
大幅削减了投资收益税 sharply reduced taxes on investment gains,
以及股息税 stock dividends,
并取消了土地税 and eliminated the estate tax.
我们经过了全面规划 We had a comprehensive plan
实施后 已为美国工人家庭 that, when acted has left nearly $1.1 trillion dollors
投资者和小型商业主们 in the hands of American workers families, investors,
省下了1万1千亿美元税收 and small business owners.
减税政策带来的优惠绝大部分进入了 Most of the benefits of these tax cuts
布什减税政策节约金额
美国前百分之一的富裕阶层的口袋 went to the wealthiest 1 percent of Americans.
同时 这为我们的经济复苏政策 And by the way, it was really the cornerstone,
巩固了基础 且其巩固作用体现在各方面 in many ways, of our economic recovery policy.
美国的贫富差距 Inequality of wealth in the United States
已经超过了其它所有发达国家 is now higher than in any other developed country.
美国人民只有两种方式应变 American families responded to these changes in two ways:
要么拉长工时 要么负债累累 by working longer hours, and by going into debt.
年工作时间
由于中产阶级逐渐衰落 As the middle class falls further and further behind,
政治上迫切需要给出对策 there is a political urge to respond
即放宽贷款标准 by making it easier to get credit.
你们不必住在破房子里 You don't have to have a lousy home.
2002年10月15日
低收入的购房者 The low-income home buyer
同样可以拥有舒适的房子 can have just as nice a house as anybody else.
美国家庭贷款买房 American families borrowed to finance their homes
美国人均家庭贷款 (根据通胀调整后)
买车 买医疗保险 their cars, their healthcare,
供孩子上学 and their children's educations.
美国后百分之九十阶层 People in the bottom 90 percent
在1980到2007年间逐渐破产 lost ground between 1980 and 2007
钱全部流入前百分之一阶层 It all went to the top 1 percent
历史上第一次出现 For the first time in history,
前百分之一阶层收入比重
普通美国人的教育程度和发展前景 average Americans have less education and are less prosperous
不如父辈们 than their parents
过去这些年 The era of greed
2009年9月29日
华尔街与华府贪婪且缺乏责任感 and irresponsibility on Wall Street and in Washington
因此引发了自经济大萧条以来 has led us to a financial crisis as serious as
最严重的金融危机 any that we have faced since the Great Depression.
金融危机爆发时 适逢2008年大选 When the financial crisis struck just before the 2008 election
巴拉克·奥巴马抛出华尔街的贪欲 Barack Obama pointed to Wall Street greed
和监管缺失 and regulatory failures
作为美国亟需改革的反面教材 as examples of the need for change in America.
华府和华尔街 A lack of oversight in Washington
在监管上的失职 and on Wall Street is exactly
是金融危机的元凶 what got us into this mess.
入主白宫后 奥巴马总统 After taking office, President Obama
提出金融业改革的必要性 spoke of the need to reform the financial industry.
我们要对系统风险进行监管 We want a systemic-risk regulator,
2009年9月14日
增加资本限制条件 increased capital requirements
还需要消费者金融保险机构 We need a consumer financial protection agency
我们要改变华尔街的面貌 We need to change Wall Street's culture.
但到2010年年中制定法案时 But when finally enacted in mid-2010
政府金融改革却力度薄弱 the administration's financial reforms were weak
在一些关键领域 包括评价机构 and in some critical areas, including the rating agencies
游说政治和薪金水平方面 lobbying, and compensation
甚至连提案中都鲜有强力政策 nothing significant was even proposed
关于他的监管改革请致奥巴马 就用这句原话 Addressing Obama and, quote, regulatory reform:
在我看来 一言以蔽之 就是"笑话" my response, if it was one word, would be: Ha!
根本谈不上什么改革 There is very little reform
为什么 How come?
政府与华尔街是一丘之貉 It's a Wall Street government
奥巴马钦点蒂姆西·盖特纳为财政部长 Obama chose Timothy Geithner as Treasury secretary
盖特纳正是金融危机时 Geithner was the president of the New York Federal Reserve
纽约美联储的总裁 during the crisis
同时也是做出 and one of the key players
付给高盛全额赔偿金 in the decision to pay Goldman Sachs
以补偿其在按揭贷款反向投保中的损失 100 cents on the dollar
这一决策的关键人物之一 for its bets against mortgages.
当蒂姆·盖特纳宣誓就任 When Tim Geithner was testifying
财政部长时 他说道 to be confirmed as Treasury secretary
"我从未担任过监管工作" "I have never been a regulator"
在我看来 他并没有弄明白 Now that said to me, he did not understand his job
纽约美联储总裁算什么工作 as president of the New York Fed.
蒂姆·盖特纳拒绝了本片的采访
纽约美联储的新任总裁是威廉·C·杜德利 The new president of the New York Fed is William C. Dudley,
前高盛集团首席经济学家 the former chief economist of Goldman Sachs
他与格伦·哈伯德合作发表文章盛赞衍生产品 whose paper with Glenn Hubbard praised derivatives.
有助于分散风险
盖特纳的幕僚长是马克·帕特森 Geithner's chief of staff is Mark Paterson
后者曾是高盛集团说客 a former lobbyist for Goldman
路易斯·萨奇斯则担任资深顾问 and one of the senior advisors is Lewis Sachs
他曾经掌管Tricadia资产 who oversaw Tricadia
一家深陷对自己出售的按揭贷款 a company heavily involved in betting against
进行反向投保泥潭的金融公司 the mortgage securities it was selling.
商品期货交易委员会的负责人 To head the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
奥巴马选择了前高盛主管加里·金斯勒 Obama picked Gary Gensler - a former Goldman Sachs executive
他曾协助禁止监管衍生产品 who had helped ban the regulation of derivatives
对于证券交易委员会 To run the Securities and Exchange Commission
奥巴马选择了玛丽·查普诺 Obama picked Mary Shapiro
FINRA前CEO the former CEO of FINRA
一家投资银行业自律监管机构 the investment-banking industry's self-regulation body
奥巴马的幕僚长拉姆·伊曼纽尔 Obama's chief of staff, Rahm Emanuel
供职房地美董事会期间 赚得32万美元 made 320,000 dollars serving on the board of Freddie Mac
马丁·费尔德斯坦和劳拉·泰森 Both Martin Feldstein and Laura Tyson
都成了奥巴马经济复苏委员会的成员 are members of Obama's Economic Recovery Advisory Board.
奥巴马的首席经济顾问是拉里·萨默斯 And Obama's chief economic advisor is Larry Summers
最资深的经济顾问 The most senior economic advisors
就是最初构建这一体系的人 are the very people who were there, who built the structure.
当我知道萨默斯和盖特纳 When it was clear that Summers and Geithner
威勒姆·布特 花旗集团首席经济学家
将成为重要顾问时 were going to play major roles as advisors
我就明白 一切都会保持现状 I knew this was going to be status quo.
奥巴马政府拒绝对银行薪金进行监管 The Obama administration resisted regulation of bank compensation
即便其他国家已经有所行动 even as foreign leaders took action.
我认为金融业是服务行业 I think the financial industry is a service industry
它应当首先服务他人 it should serve others before it serves itself.
2009年9月 In September of 2009,
克里斯汀.拉嘉德联合瑞典 荷兰 卢森堡 Christine Lagarde and the finance ministers of Sweden,
意大利 西班牙 德国的财政部长 the Netherlands, Luxembourg, Italy, Spain, and Germany
呼吁包括美国在内的G20国家 called for the G20 nations, including the United States
必须对薪酬方案进行严厉监管
加强对银行薪酬的严厉监管 to impose strict regulations on bank compensation
必须消灭奖金文化
2010年7月 And in July of 2010,
欧洲议会通过了这项监管法案 the European Parliament enacted those very regulations
奥巴马政府对此没有回应 The Obama administration had no response
奥巴马政府认为这都是暂时的 Their view is, this is a temporary blip
一切都会回归正轨 and things will go back to normal
因此我再次任命他 And that is why I am reappointing him
2009年8月25
继续留任下一届美联储主席 to another term as chairman of the Federal Reserve
谢谢你 本 Thank you so much, Ben.
2009年巴拉克·奥巴马再次任命本·伯南克 In 2009, Barack Obama reappointed Ben Bernanke
谢谢 总统先生 Thank you, Mr. President
到2010年年中 没有一个金融高管 As of mid-2010, not a single senior financial executive
被刑事起诉 had been criminally prosecuted,
连逮捕也没有 or even arrested
没有指派任何特别检察官 no special prosecutor had been appointed
甚至没有一家公司 not a single financial firm
被以证券欺诈或账目造假罪名刑事起诉 had been prosecuted criminally for securities fraud or accounting fraud
奥巴马政府也从未试图 The Obama administration has made no attempt
收回在经济泡沫时期 to recover any of the compensation
发给金融高管们的薪金 given to financial executives during the bubble
我本以为会对国家金融的高管 I certainly would think of criminal action
进行刑事诉讼 against some of Countrywide's top leaders
比如莫兹罗 like Mozilo
还有贝尔斯登 高盛 I'd certainly look at Bear Stearns, Goldman Sachs
雷曼兄弟和美林 and Lehman Brothers, and Merrill Lynch
-刑事起诉吗 -没错 - For criminal prosecutions. - Yes. Yes.
要胜诉很难 They'd be very hard to, to win.
但我觉得应该一试 But I think they could do it
只要有足够多的下属愿意说出实情 if they got enough underlings to tell the truth
整个行业都参与吸毒和嫖娼 In an industry in which drug use, prostitution,
且这些勾当都假以"业务支出"名义报销 and fraudulent billing of prostitutes as a business expense
金融就是这样一个行业 occur on an industrial scale.
如果你真想找到说实话的人 it wouldn't be hard to make people talk,
应该不太难 if you really wanted to.
他们给了我认罪协议 我答应了 They gave me a plea bargain, and I took it.
他们对我的记录并不感兴趣 Um, they were not interested in any of my records
他们对这些都不感兴趣 they weren't interested in anything.
他们对你的记录并不感兴趣 They were not interested in your records?
没错 没错 That's correct. That's correct.
需要留一点情面 处理华尔街案件 There is a sensibility that you don't use people's
没不必要扯出个人作风问题 personal vices in the context of Wall Street cases
惹恼他们 necessarily to get them to flip
也许 I think maybe it's,
度过这场灾难后 after the cataclysms that we've been through
人们对此会重新评价 maybe people will reevaluate that
现在我无权对其作出评判 I'm not the one to pass judgment on that right now.
2008年联邦检察官倒是非常乐意 以个人作风问题为由向其施压 强迫埃利奥特·斯皮策辞去州长一职
而对待华尔街人士 他们就没有这种劲头了
你们今天来 告诉我们 You come to us today, telling us:
我们很抱歉 我们不是故意的 We're sorry, We didn't mean it
我们会改的 相信我们吧 We won't do it again, trust us.
好吧 我的选民里也有些人 Well, I have some people in my constituency
抢过你们的银行 that actually robbed some of your banks
他们也像你们这样说 And they say the same thing!
他们很抱歉 他们不是故意的 They're sorry, they didn't mean it.
他们再也不敢了 They won't do it again.
2009年 当失业率达到17年来最高点时 In 2009, as unemployment hit its highest level in 17 years
摩根士丹利付给员工的薪酬超过140亿美元 Morgan Stanley paid its employees over 14 billion dollars
高盛则超过160亿 and Goldman Sachs paid out over 16 billion
2010年 奖金更是丰厚 In 2010, bonuses were even higher
为什么一个金融"工程师"的收入 Why should a financial engineer be paid four, four times
4倍甚至百倍于一个真正的工程师 to a hundred times more than the, a real engineer?
真正的工程师建设桥梁 A real engineer build bridges
金融工程师构建美梦 a financial engineer build, build dreams
然而当美梦变成噩梦时 And when those dream turn out to be nightmares,
却要别人来买单 other people pay for it.
几十年来美国金融系统一直稳定而安全 For decades, the American financial system was stable and safe.
但风云突变 But then something changed
金融业背叛了社会 The financial industry turned its back on society
腐蚀了我们的政治体系 corrupted our political system,
让全世界经济陷入危机 and plunged the world economy into crisis
最终我们以惨痛的代价 避免了灾难 At enormous cost, we avoided disaster,
如今正休养生息 and are recovering.
但一手造成危机的人和机构 But the men and institutions that caused the crisis
仍大权在握 are still in power
这一点必须改变 and that needs to change.
他们会说 我们需要他们 They will tell us that we need them
他们的工作太复杂 我们无法理解 and that what they do is too complicated for us to understand
他们会承诺一切不再重演 They will tell us it won't happen again.
他们还是会花重金抵制改革 They will spend billions fighting reform.
前路坎坷 It won't be easy.
但有些东西 值得我们为之一搏 But some things are worth fighting for.