中字翻译: 禤 英字及字幕调整: 禤
2005年,记者史蒂芬·都伯纳 与流氓经济学家史蒂芬·列维特 合作编写一本书,旨在"揭开真实世界的伪装"
"魔鬼经济学"一书给人的文学感受非同寻常, 此书在全球形成一种热潮, 已售出四百万本, 引导读者用一种崭新角度去观看世界.
译者注: 做中字真的很自虐啊! 此片涉及的知识面广,观点又创新,本人才疏学浅, 许多地方都没弄懂; 如有错漏,敬请原谅啊!
注2: 章节标题参考了书本的中文版标题 注3: 某些字幕较长可能影响收看, 敬请原谅.
So I wanna sell my home 我想卖掉房子
and I put on the market for 300,000 dollars 开价30万
It's a lovely home you have 这个家很可爱 [史蒂芬·列维特]
I'm the agent 我是那个中介 [史蒂芬·都伯纳]
Alright so let me start over, that was my ... i'm sorry 让我说完,这是我的... 抱歉
Alright I wanna sell my home 好吧,我想要卖房子
I put on the market for 300,000 dollars 报价30万
I get an offer today for $290k 今天有人开价29万
The question is if I wait a week 问题是,要是我等一个星期
and get the offer for the full $300k 拿全价30万,
Would I rather wait that week and get the full price? 那我要不要等多一个星期, 得个全价?
Or take the offer today for $290k 还是今天拿走29万.
Ah you want to take it now 你想现在就卖
I'll be the real estate agent 我就是那个房地产中介
I'm telling you want to take it right now because 我会告诉你, 你现在就卖吧, 因为
because a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush... The market is starting to really soften up 因为一鸟在手胜过双鸟在林... 市场真的开始疲软了
with these things you just can never tell 这事情谁都说不准.
If you get a good offer, I really think it's the right thing to take it 你想要个好价格, 我真的觉得现在卖就是对的.
And I'm not speaking out of self-interest cuz I'm the real estate agent 我不是在说自己的利益, 因为我是个地产中介
and our interests are aligned 我们的利益是挂钩的.
cuz I'm getting a commission out of your sales 因为我从你的卖出中提成
I want you to get as much as you can for this house 我希望你能拿最多的钱
I really do 真的
但是...你的中介真的为你的最大利益着想吗?
When you think about the incentives 当你想到激励问题
that the current contract set up 当前的合同
between the home seller and the agent 是房子卖家和经纪签下的
representing them, they are not well alligned 双方的油水其实没啥关联, 大家各有心思想着各自的激励
But can you ever prove that? 但是,你能证明吗?
Interestingly, if you look at the sales data on real estate agent own homes 有趣的是, 如果你看看房产中介自己家的销售金额,
It's not their client's home when they sell their own homes 不是客户卖的房子
They get more money than they sell the same home for their client 他们能比卖客户房子赚更多的钱
Now why would that be? 这是如何办到的?
What we find in the data is that agent hold out for better price 我们发现, 中介静待更好的价格
and leave their own homes on the market for longer 把自己的房子放在市场上更长的时间
an average for 10 days longer 一般多放10天
But when it comes to your house 但是要是他是卖你的房子
The agent has the incentive to sell right away 经纪就会很有动力, 想要立刻卖掉
Why? Cuz sometimes that $10k into his or her pocket 为什么呢? 因为有时候, 1万块里, 进他或她的口袋
-Only $150 -I only get $150 - 只有150块 - 我只拿150块
Because if you take that $10k that goes to him 因为1万块你给了他之后
6 percent goes to commission but that gets wacked up 其中百分之六是佣金,但是事情还没完
Half goes to the buyer's real estate agent 其中又有一半到了买家的经纪
So I get half of that six percent 所以我只能拿百分之六的一半
But then I have to kick back half of that to my agency 但是我又要把一半的钱给我的中介公司
So I only get one and a half percents 最后我只能拿百分之25
So really, in order for me to help him gets the extra $10k 所以呢, 我帮他赚额外的1万块
I personally only gets $150 我个人只拿150块
But I have to work for an extra week 但是我又要额外工作1周
I have to buy all the marketing 我又得去弄营销的所有东东
I could be off to another client trying to get another whole commission on another house 这段时间我大可以跟另一个客户, 在另一间房子 拿另一份提成
So I have a strong incentive to say to him this is a great offer 所以我就有强烈的动力去劝说客户,这个报价已经很好了
It's the best offer you can get 这是个你能拿的最优报价了
I really think you should take it 我真的觉得你应该接受
So no matter what the real estate agency says 所以, 不管经纪怎么说
I would rather wait a week 我宁愿再等一个星期
and pick up the extra $10k 拿多1万块
The agent wouldn't 经纪当然不愿
It's not that real estate agents are bad 不是说经纪人都是不好
It's just that they're human beings and human beings respond to incentives 只是他们都是人, 都会对激励有响应
If there's only one element 如果说只有一个因素
that I say is that almost everything we do 这个因为在我看来几乎是我们都会去做的
is the idea that incentives matter 就是激励问题
and if you can figure out what people's incentives are 要是你能罗列出人们的不同的激励
you have a good chance to guessing how they're gonna pay it 你就很可能猜到他们会为了这种激励去付出些什么
魔 鬼 经 济 学
为人父母 / 怎样才能成为完美的父母
New parents look at successful families and successful parents 新任父母看着成功的家庭, 成功的父母
and they just want to copy them and so they try to do the things 他们只想复制他人, 所以他们试着做些什么
they think that they did to get their families so smart and good and whatever 他们想他们为家庭付出, 把家里搞好什么的
which is really just a ... can be a bad mistake of correlation cuase isolate 这实在只是一个... 对相关性的一个错误理解, 因为大家都不同
You're gonna take your kid to ... you know ... every mommy and me music class 你会把孩子带去... 你知道... 每个妈妈都带孩子去音乐班
and you gonna take him to the museum and start looking at all the breaking roman sculptures 带他们去博物馆, 餐馆又老又残的罗马雕塑
you probably already playing mozart in the worm to get the brain really stimulated 你大概在怀胎的时候就谈莫扎特给孩子听, 希望真的能刺激孩子脑袋
and it turns out; that the best that we can tell 结果是, 我们能说的是
from looking at data of actual parents and children along these dimensions 看看这些父母和孩子的各种数据
that that stuffs don't really matters 其实这些东西都没什么用
that it just doesn't make your child...better 其实对你孩子变好没啥帮助
so it might make you happier, might even make 'em happier, might also make 'em miserable 这些可能让你开心点, 让他们开心点, 但也有可能让他们悲伤
but it turns out that those are not causo-elements 但事实是, 这些不是什么因果关系.
I always said you can teach a kid just as much as in a grocery store 我总是说, 你要教的话, 在杂货铺, 你也能教孩子许多
you can as in a museum, maybe more 和你在博物馆教得一样多, 甚至是更多
My entire academic life 我整个学术生涯
has been devoted to figuring out tricky ways to get a causality 都致力于解构出因果关系的微妙
because the world just doesn't offer you a cause-eality 因为世界不会就这么给你个因果
okay, what you see in the world is correlation 好吧, 你看到的世界是一种关联
So what the world gives you is - things are moving together or they aren't 那么, 世界给你的是, 事情混在一起, 或者没有混在一起
But to be useful, you need to dive down 但是要把这些变得有用于己, 你要深入理解
be able to strip away what's causing what, what's not causing what 你要抽丝剥茧, 弄清谁引起谁, 谁没有引起谁
The data we looked at 我们看看数据
suggests that, by the time you actually have a kid 都说明, 其实到你真的有孩子的时候
most of the choices that you make will make you a good parent 你做的选择会让你变成一个好的爸爸或者妈妈
you've already made them. 选择你已经做了
So if you go to the bookstore and buy 10 parenting books, 所以要是你去书店买10本关于如何当父母的书籍,
It's probably not really gonna help the kid that much 大概不是真的能帮助孩子许多
But the fact is that you are the kind of person 但事实是, 你是一个爸爸或者妈妈,
who as a parent cares enough to buy 10 parenting books even if you dont' read 'em. 你在意孩子, 买了10本育儿书籍, 即使你都不会去读.
That probably means you are a pretty good parent 这很意味着你是个好父母
Just don't think the books are gonna have a magic effect 但是别认为书本的效用有多么神奇
玫瑰更其名亦不变其香/名字对孩子的未来有影响吗 (莎翁名句,常被引用. 原句为:A rose by any other name would smell as sweet)
接下来的影片中, 为保护因名字 带来困扰的人物,其身份已被更改.
Ah parents, we wanna believe so much that everything we do 噢父母亲啊, 我们总是觉得我们所做的所有
is going to make a difference in our children's lives. 是为了孩子的有更好人生
What they eat, where they go to school, who they hang out with 他们的饮食, 上的学校, 一起玩的朋友
But before any of that takes place, 但在这些对他们起影响之前
parents are confronted wth the one single ominous decision 父母亲都得面对一个看似迷信决定
that could shape the entirety of their children's future 这个决定也许会塑造孩子的未来.
what is going to be their name?! 他们叫什么名字好呢?
These days, there's an entire industry devoted to naming your baby. 当下, 有一个成型的行业专注于为孩子命名
And business is booming 越来越受欢迎
There's magazines, books, websites 杂志, 书本, 网页
There's even high profile baby naming experts. 还有些很高姿态的BB命名专家.
I'm a baby name expert 我是个宝宝命名专家
I study names, I ask the parents how they choose names for their children 我研究名字, 咨询父母他们为孩子择名的方法.
and I look at how names are changing, 研究名字的变化趋势
because baby names are changing today faster than ever before. 因为宝宝的名儿现在越变越快.
Names are important, because they have a lot to do with your family, your heritage. 名字很重要, 因为跟你的家庭甚至家族传承很有关系.
Names represent huge, you know what I mean, street credibility all of that. 名字大有讲究, 你知道我意思, 什么街头信誉之类的.
Names are definitely a big part of meeting someone 遇人时, 名字绝对是个大学问.
A name can make you popular, and a legend. 名字可以让你变成名人, 甚至是传奇.
Without a name, u're nobody you've got to have a name. It tells your whole identity. 没有名字, 你是个小人物. 所以你要个好名儿. 名儿包含你的所有特性.
But just how important can name really be? 但是, 一个名字可以有多重要呢?
I mean, unless you're Rockefeller or Gates 我是说, 除非你是洛克菲勒(美孚石油公司创办人) 或是盖茨(微软)
Can your name have some sort of magical power over your entire destiny? 你的名字会对你的整个命运有什么神奇力量吗?
Not convinced? What about the following stories? 不相信? 那接下来的故事怎么说?
Once upon a time, there was a young mother who thought 从前,有个年轻妈妈想
she was naming her daughter after her favorite actress on the Cosby show 她用"天才老爹"里她最爱的女演员的名字为女儿命名
The smart and fiery Tempestt Bledsoe 聪明而火爆的滕普丝特·布莱索
This is the most humiliating moment of my entire life 这是我人生中最耻辱的时刻.
and there had been many 当然还有很多
But having never seen the way it was spelled 但是她没见过这名字怎么拼写
The young mother mistakenly named her new born daughter 这位妈妈就给新生的女儿错误地起了个名字
Temptress 滕普特里丝(意为引诱男性的女人;妖妇)
Well, little Ms. Temptress didn't have an easy life growing up 小滕普的成长环境并不快乐
-I don't even know -What do you mean? - 我都不知道 -你什么意思?
As a teenager, she became sexually promiscuous 到了青少年时期, 她开始滥交
Got into a whole bunch of trouble 惹了一堆麻烦
Back here you little shit 你这小混蛋回来
That's right. I better not let me catch you 好啊, 别让我抓到你
And ended up in court 最后闹上法庭了
All Rise! 全体起立!
Leaving the judge to ask her mother 法官问她妈
Is young temptress just living up to the expectation of her name? 小滕普是不是要兑现她名字的含义?
Was that just one little misplaced 'T' and 'R' 是不是就是把T和R错放了
all that stood between the life of ease and huxtable success, 就会把舒适成功的人生
verses those long hard days in court ... and 'juvie' 和法庭上的失足青年的人生掉过来吗？
Harvard professor Dr. Roland Fryer was determined to find out just that 哈佛教授罗兰弗莱尔博士决定找出个所以然
What happened to Temptress has NOTHING 小滕普的事情和名字
to do with her name, has everything to do with where she grew up 一点儿关系都没有. 和她的遭遇有关系的是她的成长环境.
It turns out, Temptress grew up in a poor black neighborhood 事实是, 小滕普成长于贫穷黑人区
The kind of neighborhood Dr. Fryer has been studying for years 弗莱尔博士已研究这类住宅区几年了.
As a world leading renowned economist and an leading expert on race in America 弗莱尔是个全球顶尖著名的经济学家,全美顶尖种族研究专家.
Fryer has been long been interested in what he calls 他对长期深入研究他所谓的
Cultural Segregation 文化隔离
The gap between White Culture and Black Culture 白人文化与黑人文化的鸿沟
One embodiment of that culture is 这种文化的一种具体表现
what you name your kid 就是对孩子的命名
is probably one of the few cultural items that we can really measure 是一种文化事件, 我们能够实际评估的事件不多, 这是其中一种.
precisely 还是精确的评估
What we did was we looked at the effects of your kid's first name 我们做的是看看孩子的名字对他们的影响.
on their life outcomes 对他们人生成果的影响
Dr. Fryer analyzed the naming records of every baby born in the states of California 弗莱尔博士对加州过去的40年的每个新生儿的名字记录
over the last forty years 进行分析.
and those names tell an unmistakable story 名字主人翁的故事都是对得上号的
African American parents are more likely than any other ethnic group 相比其他种族群, 非裔美国人(美国黑人)更倾向于
to give their children unique names 为孩子取个独特的名字
There is definitely a distinction between names ... 名字差别当然存在于
... for white people and names for black people 白人和黑人之间.
Black names will be Molique, JAQuan, NayShan, Naheem 黑人名字很可能是Molique, JAQuan, NayShan, Naheem
-TaSha and Shamika -Shaniqua and NaShan and KayShan -TaSha 或是Shamika -Shaniqua 或是 NaShan 或是 KayShan
I know this girl, her name is "trezure", TREZURE 我认识一个女孩子的名字叫TREZURE(treasure珍宝)
struck me as typically that's more like an african american name 这是很典型的就是个美国黑人的名字, 我就记住了
I like the names that begin with SHA, like Shaheem, Shahee, Shamur 我喜欢以SHA开头的名字, 好像Shaheem, Shahee, Shamur (Shawty在黑人语言里面像粤语里“靓女”的意思)
Shakeem, ShaKoor
You know - Oprah. It's popular 你知道- 奥普拉(名主持人, 美国第一位黑人亿万富翁, 许多黑人女孩的偶像). 很多人喜欢
It was actually in the fifties 在50年代
and the early sisties that we saw 和60年代早期, 我们看到
huge overlaps in the naming patterns of blacks and whites 黑人和白人的命名模式有许多交集
So people name their kids John and Michael 许多人叫孩子John和Michael
and names like that 或是这类的
And what you saw was around 19 ... in the 1968 or so 大概到了19几几年, 1968吧大概
kind of the black power movement actually 黑人权利运动
you saw distinct biofabrication 人们看到很明显的生物制造
with black names getting more distinctively black 黑人名字变得越来越有黑人特色
and a lot of them are islamic names 有许多伊斯兰特色的名字
Because the black power movement is about identity - who are we? 因为黑人权利运动就是身份运动 - 我们是谁?
Who are you? Are you part of us? 你们是谁? 是我们当中的一份子吗?
It wasn't until the late 80s and 90s that we started to get 到了80年代或是90年代, 我们才开始
you know, kind of the ... made up, concatenated names 你明白, 编些有连锁意义的名字
that you see now 正如你现在看到的
This is generation today, they saw the change the whole name concept 今天这个年代, 人们看到对于名字概念的改变
they have names that are 30 letters long you know 有些人名字有30个字母
Everybody try to do something, um ... how do you say, unique 人们都要做些...唔...怎么说,独特的事儿
they try to name their kids over something different you know 人们都要为孩子起个与别不同的名字
We had 228 unique versions of the name "Unique" 我们手头上有"Unique(独特)"这个名字的228个版本
Again, my favorite was ... 又来了, 我的最爱是...
UNEQQEE
another one of my favorite was 再一个我喜欢的
UNEEK
ah ... so there are a lot of people trying to be unique 啊... 太多人想变独特
So what happened to all these uniquely named kids? 那, 这些名字被花心思起的孩子又发生什么事呢?
Kids like poor little temptress 像小滕普的孩子
I think it's not the name that's doing the damage to temptress 我觉得不是名字毁了小滕普
It's that they grow up in the type of situation 是她成长的那种环境
where someone would name their kids Temptress 还有为她命名的人
The person would actually names their kids that 许多人给孩子起名字的时候
probably has a host of other issues 自己有许多问题要面对
that are influcing their kids' lifetime outcomes 这就影响了孩子的人生路向
Not just the name itself 不只是名字本身
What kinds of issues? 什么类型问题的呢?
Let's look at a boy with the most studied white name 我们看看被研究最多的白人名字
and a boy with the most studied african american name 和被研究最多的美国黑人名字
The person who gives their kid a distinctively black name 一般来说, 一个给孩子起个黑人特色很明显的名字
on average is more likely 很有可能
to live in poverty 住在贫民区
and to be kind of on the lower wrongs of the socio-economic ladder 也比较有可能在社会经济的阶梯上处于较低位置
You see, this is where Jake lives 你看到, 这是Jake住的地方
and this is where Deshawn lives 这里是Deshawn住的
The schools are not functioning - the teachers in those shcools aren't the same quality 学校不运作了 - 老师的素质也和
as would be in Jake's neighborhood Jake那里的天壤之别
In those neighborhoods, 80% of the households are female headed only 在那些地方, 百分之八十的家庭都是女性独自担起整个家
and what we found is that, names don't matter so much 我们又发现,其实名字真不是特别重要
they type of mother you have, the type of family you have 你妈妈的为人, 你家庭的氛围
the type of community you grow up in 你成长的环境
those things matter a lot 这些才会影响你
but what they name you, just doesn't matter 他们管你叫什么,其实没多大关系
So name doesn't define your destiny? 那, 名字不会决定你的命运?
Maybe if you name someone destiny, I don't know 也许会吧, 我不晓得
But ... No. I mean your name doesn't define your desinty 但是... 不会呢. 我是说名字不会决定你的命运
A name may not define your destiny 名字也许不会限制你的命运
But it can dictate the ways other people perceive you 但人们对你有何感觉, 名字是个方法
Meet Harvard professor Dr. Sendhil Mullainathan 我们去会会哈佛教授塞德希尔·穆来纳森
I'm very familiar with Roland Fryer's work 我很熟悉弗莱尔的工作
We both worked on the impact of names 我们都研究名字的影响
I think Roland has emphasized that 他强调
people who choose names that are very black are different 那些选择黑人特色名字的人们与
from other people that choose names that are not very black 那些不选择黑人特色名字的人很不同
whereas, we emphasize that holding everything else constant 反之,我们强调, 名字非常有黑色特色的人
that people who end up with very black names are treated very differently 受到的待遇都很不一样, 这与以上结论一致.
We know that in the data African Americans earn a lot less 数据里显示, 非裔美国人挣得钱少得多
We are interested in how much of that earning less 我们感兴趣的是, 少挣钱
is simply they find it harder to get a job 是因为他们找工作更困难
and all African Americans treated very differently in the labor market than whites 而且所有美国黑人在劳动力市场上受到的待遇都和白人不同
Dr. Mullaninathan conducted his own study 穆来纳森博士负责这次研究
This time in Boston and Chicago 这次是在波士顿和芝加哥
What we did is we made up 5,000 resumes 这次我们编了五千份简历
Half of them we put an African American name, half of them we put a White name 一半是美国黑人的名字, 一半是白人的名字
Otherwise, the resumes were the same. And we send them out 但是简历其他部分都一样. 然后就把简历发出去了.
And we said, which gets callback more? 我们就说, 哪一半会收到更多面试电话?
What we found was that the same resume when it had an African American name 结果发现, 黑人名字的同样简历
was about 33% less likely to get an interview than it had a white name 比白人名字的少收大概百分之33的面试通知
It means that, if a White person searching for jobs for 10 weeks 也就是说, 如果一个白人找10周工作
an equivalent skilled African American will search for 15 weeks 同等有料的黑人却要找15周
and those are 5 long weeks if you were unemployed 失业要多5周
You can judge somebody by their names 你会因为人家的名字对他下判断
It's not right, but people do it 这是不对的, 但是人们都这么做
They assume that, just because your name is Monique 人们就因为你的名字叫Monique
or your name is LaVongue,or Shenanig, or that 或是LaVongue, 或是Shenanig诸如此类的.
that you're African American and you are not qualified because 就会断定你是黑人, 你就不够格, 因为
your name has an ethnicity to it. 这里就是有种族意味.
One time, there was a girl name LaKeisha talked on the phone 有一次, 有个人叫LaKeisha的女孩子和我谈电话
and I thought she was black but when I met her I was totally shocked that 我认为她是个黑人, 但当我见她的时候完全傻了
she was a white southern girl 她是个南方白人女孩.
When I picture LaShandra, yea she's black 我想象中的LaKeisha是个黑人
The names we used in our studies were names like Lakisha, Jamal, Tyrone 我们研究中的名字, 大概就是Lakisha, Jamal, Tyrone之类的
Based on the results, it raises a question 基于结果, 这就引发了一个问题
I'm an African American parent, I'm thinking naming my child 我是个黑人父母, 我在考虑给孩子取名字
Tyrone sounds like a very good name, I might have a grand father named Tyrone Tyrone这名字很棒, 我也许有个先辈叫Tyrone
Should I name my child Tyrone? 我要给孩子取名叫Tyrone吗?
Yes, name your kid Tyrone, you've made it harder for him in the labor market 是的, 管孩子叫Tyrone, 孩子在劳动力市场中会困难点
On the other hand, should you give in to that? 反过来说, 你要为了这个放弃名字吗?
Should I give in to the prevailing norm, or should I express my individuality? 我要屈服于主流观念, 还是坚持个性?
as I want 如己所愿
It's a bit of an ethical quandary 有点道德为难的意味.
My friend got a drug dealer named Tyrone and I assume it's a black guy 我朋友认识个毒贩子叫Tyrone的, 我假定他是个黑人
Todd is a white name, Tyrone is a black name Todd是个白人名字, Tyrone是个黑人的.
I mean that's sort of how it goes, right? 我是说, 就是这样子嘛, 不是吗?
You might choose a distinctively black name 你也许会选择个黑人特色明显的名字
as a way to signal something about yourself 为了标志出你的特点
and about your commitment to the black community 或者你对黑人族群的忠诚
and that's the way to show other African Americans look I am really black 这就是展示给其他人"看,我是真的黑人."
and I think there're distinctively black names already tell you 黑人特色明显的名字已经告诉你
that there's a cultrual divide at some core, visible, noticeable level 某核心程度上这就是文化分歧, 大家都看得见的
and we see it sometimes in clothings, we see it in names 有时候还能从穿着, 名字里瞧见这分歧
and in fact that's true, there're quite a few distinctively white names 是真的, 有许多白人特色很明显的名字
names like Emily, Brandon, ... ah ... 像Emily呀Brandon呀
... forgetting what those ... if you give me a minute I can count the others ...一时间忘了... 给我点时间我能数出来
White names are like Sarah, Megan 白人名字像Sarah, Megan
Mariah, Mary
Billy
Beckys, Johns
Tadd
Joe, Mike
Ryan, Sam
Chester
My brother and I were talking about how we have white sounding names 我哥哥和我曾讨论过我们的名字多白人多响亮
He's Abner, I'm Harper 他叫Abner, 我叫Harper
Stone, Stone Phillips, that's like perfectly sutited for a white guy Stone, Stone Phillips, 完全适合给一个白人男生
that's the best white guy name you can have. 这是最好的白人名字了.
We live in different cultures and your name is largely determined by your culture 我们生长在不同的文化, 你的名字主要取决于你的文化
and the difference in the incident of LaKeysha among African Americans vs. white LaKeysha事件里,显示的黑人和白人的差异
might be a good way to understand how truely there are 也许是个好方法, 让大家明白
different culutures African American inhabit and white inhabit 美国黑人和白人的文化真的是两种不同文化.
Today, there is more evidence than ever that the cultures we come from 现在, 越来越多证据显示我们来自于不同的文化
influence the names we choose 会影响我们对名字的选择
Just ask the baby naming expert 问问宝宝命名专家吧
More and more today, 现在越来越多的
you see parents choosing a name almost as if launching a product 父母选择宝宝名字好像开个工程一样
that you're trying to position a child 父母费劲心思, 把孩子放在
for the best chance of success in the global market place 最好的位置, 帮他们在全球市场寻找最好的机会
So in an oversaturated market place 所以在一个过度饱和的市场中,
which names garner the most attention? 哪些名字获得最多注意呢?
Are some names destined for the top shelf, 有些名字注定要在顶级商品区
while the others are headed for the bargain basement? 其他的就要流去廉价部么?
Let's take a look at the two product lines 我们看看产品线吧
Turns out, there is a such a thing as a knock off name 事实呢, 一个击倒性的名字确实有点不同
The top 5 middle class white girls names from Fryer's studies are: 弗莱尔的研究里, 中产阶层里女孩子的名字前5名是:
(in order of popularity) (按受欢迎次序)
Ashley, Lauren, Jessica, Emily and Sarah
While the top 5 lower income white girls names are: 另一边, 低收入前5名的女孩子的名字是:
Brittney, Samantha, Amanda, Jessica and Ashley
So what happens to Ashley?! 那Ashley发生什么事呢?
She's fast loosing popularity in the middle class list 这边的名单里, 她受欢迎程度掉得最快
But she's no.1 in the WalMart crowd 但她在沃尔玛的那堆人里是最厉害的
As those wealthier folks see their names popping up everywhere 那些更有钱的人看着自己的名字到处出现
they quickly discard them in favor of less merchandise 他们很快就抛弃这些同名的人, 以防同类"商品"出现
And just like that, 就是这样,
Today's high end Ashley, becomes tomorrow's low rent Trashley 今天的香饽饽, 明天就变了没人要
On the lower strung of the ladder, 梯子下层的名字,
are the names that most signify lower class parents. 表明了父母亲非高层人士
Like Misty, Destiny, Bobbi, Brandy or Cyndi 像 Misty(迷雾),Destiny(命运),Bobbi,Brandi(白兰地)或Cyndi
Now if you are over 40 现在如果你已年过四十
and actually remember a time these names didn't belong up here on stage 还记得有段时间这些名字不该属于舞台上的这些女孩
You're right! 对的!
Years ago, these names wouldn't be caught dead in a place like this 多年前,这些名字不会在这种场所献丑
But the years have not been kind to a name like Bobbi 但是叫一个Bobbi的人命途着实坎坷
And even though she once was at the top of the social-economic ladder 即使她曾经在社会经济梯子的上层
Today, she's just clinging to her former glory 现在, 她只是在努力维系过往的辉煌
Please don't name your kid Barbie or Bambi or 请别给孩子起名叫Barbie或是Bambi或是
anything like that, they might end up being a dancer one day because of it 之类的, 她们以为很可能因此就做个舞娘
And if you do end up with a name that's bound for stripper doom 要是你真的被起了个名, 这个名不能逃过舞娘的宿命
at least you can change it 但你至少可以改名.
I mean, hey, it works in Hollywood 我是说, 嘿, 荷里活的人都这么干
Think about it, would John Wayne has been as tough if his name is Marion Morrison? 想想看, 要是John Wayne叫Marion Morrison, 他还是个硬汉吗? (JOHN WAYNE,以演西部片著称的好莱坞明星.本名Marion Morrison)
Would we think Marilyn Monroe as beautiful if her name was still Norma Jean? 要是玛丽莲梦露叫 Norma Jean, 她还能如此性感吗? (梦露,公认性感女神. Norma Jean一为乡村歌手, 一为迪斯高女王)
And would we think as Ice Cube rocking the crowd if his name is still O'Shea Jackson 要是冰块(艾斯·库珀)还叫O'Shea Jackson,却在搞摇滚, 你能想象吗?
Actually, I always wanted to change my names to Max Powers 其实呢, 我一直想要改名字叫Max Powers
cuz it seems like a name that everybody like once they hear that they're like 因为这个名字就是, 人家一听就会觉得
this guy must be really cool 这家伙肯定很酷
I want to change my name when I was younger, I never liked it 我早些时候想要改名儿, 我不喜欢自己的名字
If my name was, um, Henry O'Barma 要是我叫,唔, Henry O'Barma
You know what I mean? 你明白的吧?
I think that would mean something to people 我想这有些含义什么的
and I would have more doors opened for me 我能有更多机会
I did want to change it but now I'm sort of cool with it 我过去是想改,但是,现在也算习惯了
You just sort of like 就像是...
jumps on your back and rides along with you through life you know 你背上名字, 好好过日子.
As much as you may hate your name, at least your dad isn't this guy 即使你很讨厌自己的名儿, 但起码你爸爸不是这家伙
Meet Robert Lane 会会Robert Lane
He has two sons. He named his first son Winner. 他有两个娃儿. 大儿子叫Winner(赢家)
3 years later, he named his next son Loser 三年后有个小儿子Loser(败者)
So Winner and Loser Lane set off in the world to claim their destinies 成功和失败之路/雷恩两兄弟的人生路就这么开启了, 为自己的命运正名
And what happened? 之后呢?
Well, Loser went to prep school on a scholarship Loser凭着奖学金去了预备学校(预科)
Graduated from college, joined the NYPD 大学毕业后入了纽约警队
and eventually became a detective. And then, a sergeant 最后成了侦探, 后来升了沙展
He goes by Lou now 现在顺风顺水
And his brother? 他哥哥呢?
Well, the most note worthy achievement of Winner Lane is Winner最牛X的就是
the sheer length of his criminal record 犯罪记录像裹足布一般长
Nearly 3 dozen arrests for burglary, 近36次被捕, 当中包括盗窃
domestic violence, trespassing and other mayhem 家暴, 擅自侵入别人家中, 蓄意伤害他人
Is there one name that you can give a kid that 会不会有一个名字, 你为孩子起了之后
guaranteer that won't become screwed up? 就保证他不会搞砸自己?
No 没有
Sorry, there's not one name that you can give a kid that 抱歉, 没有一个名字可以
guaranteer they won't become a screw up 保证谁不会把自己搞砸
And there's not one name that you can give a kid that 也没有什么名字
guaranteer they will become a success 能保证谁肯定能成功
You know, it is a crapshoot when it comes to names 名字这码事不能保证这个.(crapshoot 有风险的事业)
I don't think there's any name 我想没有什么名字
that can guaranteer success, at least none that we found 能保证成功, 至少我们没发现
The world is full of ... 这世界到处都是
... excellent people and terrible people with all sorts of names 优秀的人, 很糟的人, 他们名字各不相同.
The vast majority of the reason people choose is left unexplained 人们选择名字的理由, 绝大程度上不能解释.
It's like, why did you choose your child's name? 就像是, 你为什么为孩子起这个名字呢?
Sounded nice "就是听着挺好"
Who really knows what parents are thinking when they choose a name 父母在为孩子起名字的时候在想啥, 谁都不知道.
Maybe your parents went with something traditional 也许你父母喜欢些传统点的
Or something bohemian 或是波西米亚(不羁)点的
Something unique 独特点的
Or something perfectly trendy 或是时髦点
And maybe your parents didn't have the best taste 或许你爸妈品味不是特别好
and you can't stand your names 你受不了这个名字
Or maybe, they got it just right 但也可能, 他们就是起对了
Actually, my name means intelligent hero 其实呢, 我的名字是个睿智的英雄
So, that describes me to the fullest 这个呢, 对我是最好的描述了
I was actually named after a horse. My dad is a horse trainer. 其实我的名字是匹马儿的名字. 我爸爸是个驯马师
My middle name is comfort, because an angel came down to comfort my mother 我中间的名儿是comfort, 因为一个天使曾下来安慰我妈妈
and told her she's gonna have a daughter with dark hair 跟他说, 她会生个黑头发的女娃儿
and blue eyes who would be a great comfort to her 她还是蓝眼睛的, 这个女娃是她很大的安慰.
The prophet Mohammed 先知穆罕默德
My name says that I'm named after my grand father 我以爷爷的名字命名
who was named after his great grandfather 他又是以他曾祖父的名字命名.
that what it says 就是这样
In the end, most parents just want the best for their children 最后想说, 大多数父母只是想给孩子最好的东西
and if they believe a particular name they give can give their kid the extra edge 既然他们都想给孩子起个独特的名字, 给他们额外的好处
Then why not?! 那何乐而不为呢?!
I mean who konws? 我是说, 谁知道呢?
It just might work 也许事能如愿 (Barack Obama现任美国总统)
CHEATING 作弊 / 学校老师跟相扑运动员之间有何共同之处
As W.C. Fields once said, "A thing worth having is worth cheating for." W.C. Fields曾说:"一件值得拥有的事就值得你去作弊."
Or as Mark Grace of the Chicago Cubs once said 芝加哥小熊队的Mark Grace曾说过
"If you ain't cheating, you aint trying." "你没作弊, 也就是说你没尝试."
Everybody understands why a kid would want to cheat on SATs, right? 人人都明白为什么学生都在入学考试作弊.(Scholastic Assessment Test)
They have huge gains of ... 要是做个弊,
get into Harvard and have a good life as a result of cheating on a test 能进哈佛, 就能有个好人生, 好处多多啊.
What's hard to think is why would a teacher cheat? 难以想象的是, 为什么老师
for a kid on a test 帮助学生作弊呢?
And, when you go to Chicago and goes back a few years ago 到芝加哥去, 回头看看几年前,
We find that lots and lots of teachers were cheating 我们发现, 许许多多老师都参与作弊
Why would they cheat? 为什么呢?
Well, because there was tremendous pressures on the teachers 因为老师的压力很大
to produce high test scores so their schools wouldn't get into troubles 要是能制造高分, 他们的学校就没麻烦
First of all, to a very expedient ... to go to the end of the test 首先, 一个很有用的权宜之计... 等到考试结束
Cuz at the end of the test, a lot of the kids've left them blank 因为考试的最后, 许多学生都没有填涂选项
So instead of having to erase something and fill it back in, 所以你不用擦去选项, 或者修改过来,
you can just fill in the answers 你直接填涂答案就好了
It might look kind of funny 看着就很搞笑
cuz how often would kids take a test 因为学生考试
and they answered the first 20 questions, 他们答了前20题
leave 17 questions blank, and then fill in the last 8 questions 中间17题空了, 最后8题又填了. 这个发生几率有多少?
maybe be even a little funnier when 更搞笑的是
they fill out the last 8 questions and they all all the questions right 他们后8题全答对了.
and those happens to be the hardest quesitons on the exam 后面的题目还是试题里最难的.
THE EVIDENCE 证据
When I got the data from this guy from public schools 学校里拿到的数据
I mean we are talking about millions and millions of answers 是成百万的答案
by thousands of kids, over years and years 许多许多年, 成千个学生
and I looked at the data, I couldn't see anything. 我看着数据, 什么都没看出来
How can you see anything?! 你能看出些什么来?
If you can think like a teacher who cheats, and look again at the sea of data 要是你想着有个老师作弊, 再看看这浩如烟海的数据
These patterns come to light 就能看出花样
Patterns, which are shuttle. They're buried under mounts and mounts of data 模式是随机的, 埋藏在数以月计的数据里
When looked at through the varied length, suddenly 我看着不同长度的答案, 猛地
It just as clear as day. And once you know what to look for 一切明朗了. 这时候你又知道自己在找寻什么
You can't help but say it has to be cheating 你不得不说那是作弊
What he's really good at, is pretending he's a cheater 他最擅长扮演作弊者
a criminal, a thief, a cheat, all these things because 罪犯, 小贼, 骗子, 诸如此类的, 因为
cuz really he's not far from it; I mean if you really think about what an economist is 他和这些人都差不多. 我是说, 你认真想想经济学家的本质.
the line between an economist and criminal is terribly thin 经济学家和罪犯,只是一线之差
-And what about journalists? -Um, no line -那记者呢? -呃, 连线都没了.
Because he can put himself in the shoes of someone 因为他能把自己融入某个人那里
who would behave criminally or who's a cheater 那个人也许是罪犯, 也许是作弊的
then you can back up the process and reverse engineer it 那你就能支持对整个过程, 然后对其进行还原
And that's what you have to do. 这是你必须做的
Because unless you are in the room with cheaters, it's really hard to catch them 因为除非你是在考场里作弊的, 不然你很难抓住他们.
It's not that some people cheat at every second or some people never cheat 不是说某些人一直在作弊, 有些人从不作弊
We all cheat sometimes and others 我们总会在某些时候作弊
Everyone got their own moral encompass 每个人身处的道德环境不同
to determine what they'll do and what they won't do 这就决定了他们会不会作弊
纯舞弊 (和前面一章呼应)
Economics tries to be a pure science in an impure world 经济学试图在一个不纯的世界成为一门纯科学
Economists imagine men and women are rational actors 经济学家想象男人和女人都是理性的演员
In a market place that hides nothing from buyers and sellers 想象他们都是贸易市场里没有任何隐藏的买家和卖家
But what happens to market when people cheat? 但是, 如果有人作弊, 那市场会发生什么?
10 years I've been interested in cheating 10年来我都对作弊感兴趣
and I was in Washington DC 那时候我在华盛顿特区
I remember just seeing a little blur in the Washington Post 我记得, 我看到华盛顿邮报有一处模糊
that said there have been allegations of cheatings in Sumo Wrestling 那里断言, 相扑比赛里肯定有作弊现象
My view has always been, 我的观点是
if some insiders come forward and say there's cheating, 要是有内幕人员走过来说, 是有作弊,
probably there's something to it 那很可能信得过
If you had said, where is a sport where you would not find cheating 如果你说, 哪里有项运动是找不到作弊的
I'd have said Sumo Wrestling, one's that got 2,000 years of history 我会说是有两千年历史的相扑
it's all about purification, ritual and honor 它是纯洁, 仪式和荣誉的代名词
It's located in a culture, 根植于一种文化
which on all of the rankings of corruption across the country is really really low 全国范围里, 舞弊排名非常非常低
The ancient sport of Sumo Wrestling, is the essence of pure competition 相扑这项古老运动, 精髓在于纯竞技
Two naked men, fighting in a sandpit 两个赤裸的男人, 在沙坑里战斗
Under the watchful eyes of a referee, dressed as a Shinto priest 裁判都穿得像神道教牧师, 眼光锐利
Shinto, means ways of the Gods Shinto, 意为神之道
A religion that celebrates the purity and harmony of men and nature 这个宗教, 赞美人与自然间的纯洁与和谐
In Sumo, you do your ceremonial stuff 相扑里, 你要做各种仪式
One is the clapping of the hands 一项是拍手
as to awake the Gods 以唤醒神灵
Two is when we show our hands and flip our hands over and 第二是显示自己的手掌, 把手掌摊开
stuff to show that we have no conceal weapons 以显示你没有收藏任何武器
You come here and you want to fight fair with your bare hands 你来这里, 想要用手空拳和对手竞技
and to tell the Gods you're coming in with 告诉神灵, 你是带着
a fresh and clean might and heart vessel. 清新干净的思想和心灵
The stomping of the feet in the Shinto religion is to stumble evil spirits 在神道教里, 跺脚是要驱走恶灵
and throwing of the salt is purify 撒盐是净化
神道教和相扑不能分割
即使你想分开也不可以
仪式的目的是让神明高兴
I think purity is a good mask, 我觉得, 纯洁是个好面具
for corruption, perhaps most so it discourages inquiry. 掩饰舞弊, 也许因为这个, 相扑不容他人探究
It's true that Sumo might seem to be immune from corruption 也许相扑和舞弊真的完全无关
because of its purity, history, and so on 因为其纯洁 ,其历史, 等等
On the other hands, the stakes are high 另一方面来说, 利益很高
When stakes are high, and when there's an incentive to cheat 利益高了, 就有了作弊的动机
A small percentage of people always will 总会有少数人愿意作弊
Just as in medieval Japan 在中世纪的日本
The wrestlers, known as Rikshi or strong man 相扑手, 也称Rikshi, 壮男
spent years in apprenticeship 花多年时间学习
Living together around the clock and training in stables or Biar 日以继夜生活在一起, 在一些较Biar的棚子里训练
Subject to strict moral and physical displine 道德和体育纪律都很严谨
If you're a Sumo Wrestler in the top ranks 如果你是顶级相扑手
Your life is very very good 你的人生就非常非常好
and you can live like a king 你就像个国王
Once you fall below those ranks or never attained those ranks, 一旦你名次下滑, 或者永远达不到顶层
your life is not very good at all 你的人生就一点都不好
So, it's a very steep pyramid, at the top life is great, 像一个陡峭的金字塔, 上层的人生就好
and there's lots of people down below life is not so great 许许多多的人则在下面, 生活不如意
But there are so many of them, 但是相扑手总是非常多
because they're all aspired to get to the top obviously 因为他们总是受到鼓励, 要到最高层
It's a battle 24/7, being a Sumo Wrestler 作为一个相扑手, 你的战斗永无停息
It's not just two big fat guy trying to ... 不只是两个肥仔, 设法
... to kill each other but it's a lot of work to be big 把对方杀死. 要成为大人物, 要许多功夫.
and at the same time active 同时还要是活跃选手
6 major tournament a year 一年6个大型锦标赛
you have to wrestle with injuries 你要带着伤患比赛
they throw you in a jungle and see how you can come out alive 他们把你扔到丛林, 想要看看你如何能活着出来
The objective of the game is to push your opponent outside of the ring 比赛目标是要把对手推出绳环外.
or pushing him into the ring 或者在环里推倒他.
But how can you tell if a Sumo Wrestler is cheating? 但你怎么能够说相扑手有作弊?
Is it a slip on purpose? 故意滑倒?
Is the fall rigged? 摔倒是事前操纵的吗?
It's hard to tell unless you look at patterns over time 很难看得出, 除非你看出模式来
People who are actively corrupted always try to cover their trails 有意作弊的人总是设法隐藏痕迹
So corruption, by its nature is hard to identify, hard to prove 所以舞弊, 本质上很难去定义, 也很难去证明
Murders are really great, 谋杀多好,
cuz almost always when someone is murdered, there's always a corpse 因为总是有人被杀, 总会有尸体
You might say "How would you know someone's cheating?" 你也许会说"你怎么知道有人作弊?"
and the answer is - look in the data 答案是: 看看数据
I don't have to ever seen a sumo match 我连一场相扑比赛都不用看
I can look into data, I can look at it 看数据, 就能看出端倪
And I can tell you, with almost complete certainty, 我能告诉你, 几乎百分百肯定
that there's rampage cheating going 作弊现象很猖獗
In professional Sumo touraments, the wrestler fights one bout per day for 15 days 在职业相扑锦标赛上, 相扑手15天内每日进行一个回合
If you win 8 out of the 15 matches, you can move up in rank - half a slot 如果你能赢下15场里面的8场, 你就能在排行榜上升级- 榜的一半
The difference of half a rank can be maybe 5,000 dollars in paychecque a month 名次榜上升一半可能意味着一个月五千美元的支票
The respects you get in the Sumo Association 还能得到相扑相扑的尊重
So when you talk about stuff like that, that 8 win is real critical 所以你说到锦标赛什么的, 赢8场真的很关键
A Rikshi entering a tourament final 15 match 一个Rikshi进入了锦标赛的最后15场
with a 7 and 7 record, has far more to gain from a victory 他7胜7负, 离胜利的距离
than an opponent, say 8 and 6 has to loose 比8胜6负的对手离胜利的距离要大.
If a wrestler has 8 wins under his belts, he's guaranteed to advance 要是一个相扑手已有8胜在手, 他已确保晋级
Even if he loses that last match 即使他输掉最后的比赛
So he could afford to take a fall 所以他输得起
In Japan, there's a term for match rigging - YAOCHO 在日本,比赛作弊叫YAOCHO
Many suspected that Sumo matches might be rigged 许多人怀疑相扑比赛也能作弊
But it's nearly impossible to prove, unless you look closely at the numbers 但这个几乎不可能被证明, 除非你仔细观察数字
2 wrestlers that I would expect to have an even match 我以为两个相扑手会进行一场公平的比赛
When 1 of them needs the eigth win and the other doesn't 但一个需要第8次胜利,但另外一个不需要
The one who needs it wins 75% at a time 需要胜利的一方赢的比率是四分之三
Rather than 50% a time 而不是一半
That's a huge deviation 这个偏差太大了
I (8-6 wrestler) let you (7-7 wrestler) 我(8胜6负)让你(7胜7负)
let you win this deciding match cuz you, my friend, 让你赢这场决定性的比赛,因为你, 我的朋友
gonna fall down the pyramid if you don't 如果你不赢就会跌出金字塔顶
In return, the next time those 2 guys meet 作为回报, 下一次这两个人再碰面时
Lo and Behold, the 8-6 wrestler almost always wins those matches 你瞧, 8胜6负的那个几乎总是赢下一个系列的比赛
我从1988年9月开始研究相扑
开始研究一个月后, 我已经知道YAOCHO的存在
我读了, 觉得里面给出了 许多数字,证明了一些难以证实的事情
YAOCHO一事日本人一路以来 都感觉到, 这本书也给了数字证实
从基本层面去说, 事情非常简单
他们事先确定谁赢谁输
并进行金钱交易
一个回合 二十万-三十万日元 约等于2,500美元
低层点的 两万-三万日元 约等于250美元
或者一大盒烟
但当你达到最顶尖的层次 价钱则高达一百万甚至二百万日元
也许一个回合就会决定冠军谁属
这些就是YAOCHO的基本因素
但是我联系相扑里的人, 没一个肯做所谓的线人
怕被相扑世界这个村式社会驱逐
多年以后, 他们都不能在相扑 以外的世界生存.
相扑手都认识对方, 有些是好朋友
所以相扑手会同情对手; 如果对方的一次失利会让他排名下跌,
或是使其完全跌出 职业相扑界的顶层
那他不会在比赛尽全力
相扑是竞技体育, 他们不可能承认舞弊
所以,即便观众都知道真相
相扑协会都会拒绝承认 YAOCHO的存在
这也许是"本音"和"建前"的反映
"Honne" is Real Truth and "Tatemae" will be the surface of things, the faced "本音" 是真相的意思, "立前/建前"是事情表面的意思
They are unusually important in Japanese culture 在日本文化里异常重要
That's why the Japanese have given them names 所以日本人给了他们名字
But being human, living in any society, I think we can all understand 但是,作为人类, 生存在任何社会, 我觉得我们都能理解
the concepts themselves 这些概念本身
That Tatemae's going to be a great spectacle of honest competition "建前"是大家瞻仰的诚实比赛
but in the surface of creating that pleasing facet 但在取悦群众的表面背后
the actual players are engaging in a form of corruption 相扑手其实在舞弊
To have the "Honne" exposed produces discomfort 如果揭开“本音”, 就会引起不安
When you think of the financial scandals 因为你会想到金融丑闻
That have racked America recently 毁了美国
A lot of people who were supposedly to be not just incredibly wise 许多人不是非常聪明
but incredibly honest, has been exposed as neither 但大家觉得非常诚实, 都被揭露有舞弊
Those of us who have looked to the self-interest of lending institutions 我们都看过借贷机构的自私自利
to protect shareholder's equity, myself especially, 为了保护股东产权; 所以大家,尤其是我自己,
are in the state of shocked disbelief. 都处于一种极度不信人的状态
That produces a kind of dissolution, in any society that formerly looked 对于那些人和那些机构,
to those people or those institutions ... 这种不信任产生了解体
... are somehow representatives of what's best in our society 而这些人和机构是社会顶层的代表事物.
Sumo would be an example of that in Japan 日本的相扑就是一个例子
While I would not put the Bernie Madoff pre-arrest reputation, 我不想把麦道夫被捕前的名声放在这里谈, (麦道夫因涉嫌设下金字塔式投资骗局被捕,涉及款项高达500亿美元)
I wouldn't necessarily call that one of purity 我不是用我们说相扑
The way we would talk about Sumo Wrestling, 或者说天主教神职人员
or the way we might talk about the Catholic Clergy 的那种方式去说纯洁
The S.C.C. had an image of this guy - 此人的形象- (S.C.C我不知道是什么.....)
that was almost sacred saint in that he's running the exchange, 就是个圣人, 他经营证券公司
he'd been a market maker. 他制造市场
His reputation was so large that it discourages them 他的名声太大, 所以人们
from coming in with a bias toward corruption, 不会认为他会舞弊诈骗
and instead, they brought a bias against it. 相反, 觉得他肯定不会
Mr. Madoff, what do you have to say for yourelf? 麦道夫先生, 你有什么要说的呢?
What do you have to say to the public, your investors? 你要对公众和你的投资者说些什么?
The realm of high finance and the world of sumo 高级融资领域和相扑世界
both demonstrate the illusion of purity 都展示了纯洁的假象
cannot only hide corruption, it can help to make it possible. 不仅能隐藏舞弊, 还能使舞弊成为可能
In Sumo, when whistle blower step forward to expose corruption 揭秘者想站出来揭发相扑舞弊,
they were not treated kindly. 他们通常都会被狠狠修理.
In 1996, two summo veterans, including a recently retired stable master, 1996年, 两个相扑界资深人员, 包括最近退休的相扑教练,
collaborated in a tell-all exposé that was serialized in the Shukan Post 共同向和盘托出, 揭秘内容已被连载
相扑教练大胆说出来, 很震惊
他这么个位置的人, 说出了许多名字,
巨细无遗地揭露细节
从相扑协会的角度
我觉得他们就是想假装什么都没发生
The Sumo Association dismissed the allegation as lies, 相扑协会驳回他的说法, 说这些都是谎言
told by a revengeful stable master 但这些是从一个相扑教练说出来的
seeking to cash in on publicity. 这个教练意在报仇, 也想趁机利用揭秘捞一笔
To defend their claims, the whistle blowers decided to hold a press conference. 为了帮自己的说法辩护, 告密者决定召开记者招待会
But two weeks before the press conference, both men died. 但就在记招召开前两周, 两个人都死了
In the same hospital, on the same day 在同一间医院, 同一天
From the same ... mysterious respiratory ailment. 死于一样的... 神秘的呼吸道疾病
非常奇怪的事件.
刚听到的时候,很难接受这仅仅是巧合
那时候, 赌相扑是很炫的事
一个相扑手的输赢对投注赔率 影响非常大
所以, 站住来, 揭露秘密
等于打破了日本影子社会的禁忌
正因如此, 除了他们死, 别无选择
Yet, no one questioned the way they died, there were no autopsies 然而, 没人质疑他们的死因, 也没有验尸
The police did not investigate the sudden and simultaneous deaths. 警察也没有调查这两起突然同时死亡事件
"It's a very good hospital", a police spokesman told reporters. "这是间好医院", 一个警察跟记者说
So, there were no grounds for suspicion. 所以没有质疑的理由
警察说:"亲属没有寻求验尸."
但是你会想,他们无论如何都调查过
不仅是警察, 整个日本社会
都认为相扑世界不可进犯
好像相扑界置于法律之外
Concerns about the sport resurfaced when another mysterious death haunted Sumo 另一起神秘死亡事件笼罩相扑界, 人们又开始为此项运动担忧
This time it was a young "Rikichi" in training named Takashi Saito 这一次,是一个叫Takashi Saito的年轻学徒相扑手
Whose corpse showed visible signs of assault and mutilation. 生前明显被殴打, 尸体被肢解
他的教练告诉媒体
这是练习期间的意外死亡
但事实证明,真相非如此
我觉得应该有人写写这个
所以我决定我来做
一个尸体被肢解, 又没有验尸
就这样叫"意外死亡"太不公平了
还可能有许多类似事件
光想想就让人打颤
这不只是相扑界的事
事件在整个日本社会引起轩然大波
故事还流传了多个版本
Hiromasa Saikawa took note of the death of the young wrestler Hiromasa Saikawa为年轻相扑手的死作了记录
Saikawa is one of the nation's most vocal critics 他是日本的批评家
of how murders are investigated in Japan. 对谋杀的调查方法,他的发言最有力
He quit his post on the Tokyo Police Force 他辞了东京警队的职位
When the gap between the "Honne" (the hidden truth) 那时候, "本音"(被掩藏的真相)
and the "Tatemae" (the facet propriety) had grown too wide 和"建前" (得体的一面) 的距离已变得很大
日本警方对谋杀案的逮捕率
如常地超过百分之96
但是这个数字实在令人难以置信
这个数字没有反映真相
每一个警察都知道这个
The job of any police force is to help keep crime at low enough levels 警察的职责就是把罪案控制在低水平
so that society can properly function. 以维持社会正常运作
The "Tatemae" of the police force is to be seen doing that 表面上警察做到了这一点
If the police can tell society, we solved 96% of crimes, 要是警方告诉群众, 我们破了百分之96的案子
they have certainly fulfilled their "Tatemae" function. "粉饰太平"他们确实做到了
In comforting society, making society feel safe. 安慰社会, 让大众觉得安全
But to achieve that level of "Tatemae" 但为了达到足够的"得体度"
The police might select "only" cases for investigation 他们只选择最适合破的案子进行调查
that they think they have an extremely high chance of solving 那些案子他们都觉得破案可能性非常大
发现一具尸体, 明显是被谋杀的,
如果警方能找到疑犯,
案子就会被列作谋杀案调查
但是,如果他们不知道谁是疑犯,
疑犯他们找不着
案子就会被列作弃尸案告终
警察和运动员是相似的
他们以破案率论功
一名警员要为人熟悉,就要靠他的破案数
只要他能制造令人佩服的破案数字
就不会在去深入发掘真相
只要方案能提高破案数字,他们都会采用
这就是我离开警队的原因
Despite clear evidence of brutality, 忽视被暴行虐待的明显证据
the police declared that the young man died of natural causes. 警方宣称这名年轻人是死于自然原因
And the stable master quickly asked for the young boy's body, 教练迅速地取回他的尸体
so it can be cremated. 以进行火化
But the angry father of the young man insisted autopsy, 但是他的父亲非常愤怒, 坚持验尸,
which revealed that he has been burned with cigarettes; 后来发现他已被烟头烧伤
and beaten to death with beer bottles and baseball bats. 被啤酒瓶和棒球棍殴打致死
The young boy has died at the hands of fellow wrestlers 这个小伙子死于同袍的手下
who're ordered by the stable master to punished the boy 这些同伴是教练吩咐去惩罚这个男孩的
for trying to run away from the world of Sumo 因为他想离开相扑界
这对相扑界是个很大的震撼
也敲响了警钟
之前被允许的事情, 以后不能再容忍
我的YAOCHO文章已经开始让 公众反对眼光投向相扑界
Sumo counter-criticism with lawsuit against Takeda and his magazine 相扑界对Takeda及其杂志进行了反批评的诉讼
Juries ruled against Takeda in cases where he accused individuals of match rigging 对于Takeda控告多人的比赛舞弊行为, 陪审团否决了
But Sumo had no defence against the revelation of violence. 但是相扑界对于暴行被揭发则没有辩护
To defend its reputation, the Sumo Association shores up its image 为了保护名声, 相扑协会
By building on notions of purity from Shinto 通过建立神道教的纯洁观念, 以维持形象
that are essential to be what it means to be Japanese 神道教的观念对于日本人举足轻重
Publicly, it insists that Yaocho is a myth. 对大众来说, Yaocho事件仍然是个谜.
I hope ... there was none of that going on 我希望...此类事件没有发生
in the bottom ranks. But 在低层的相扑手. 但是
where I was ... No. 在我之前的地方... 确实发生了
他们能说的就是这个
我也希望能说
Yaocho不存在
但现在我只能实话实说
A retired Rikshi who wrote to Komosubi - the 4th highest ranked in Sumo. 一个退休的Rikshi写信给排名第4的Komosubi
Keisuke Itai came forward, and publicly admitted to fixing many matches. Keisuke Itai自告奋勇,公然承认在许多比赛里舞弊
And named names of others, who did the same. 还把同样舞弊的人供了出来
Itai是个极其强大的相扑手
他有本事击倒对手, 只用手打一下.
但他的教练从一开头就 引诱他进入YAOCHO的世界
像是毒药, 一旦开始就很难戒掉
如果你把YAOCHO看作一个经济体制
金字塔顶部由成千上万的 金钱堆砌而成
那些钱用来再填充整个相扑界
一路向下补给至低层
Yaocho就是一个工具
如果Rikishi真的相扑认真
这对于相扑是个神圣的组成部分
即使现在,看到一场好比赛,我还是很感动
如果我看到作弊, 我会很失望
我们相扑手都能看出
比赛是真的还是假的
在西方
如果有些事情和"建前"不相符
总有机会被揭露
譬如, 档案会在30年后发布
但这样的事在日本是不可能的
反而大家都确信 真相会被永远葬于黑暗
In Japanese media, there's a certain form of self-censorship 日本媒体有一套自我审查制度
giving interviews in japanese, 访问日本民众
the media will not quote me if I use the word "Daraku" 要是我说了"Daraku"一词, 媒体就不会引用我的原话了
which is corruption in japanese 这个词在日本语是"堕落/舞弊"的意思
and they'll change it instead to something like "Konran" - confusion. 他们会把词换掉, 变成像"Konran"-混乱
We certainly have the very same thing in America today. 当然今天的美国也有这样的事.
The New York Times, for example, will not use the word TORTURE 比方说, 纽约时报, 不会用"折磨"一词
to describe anything that's been carried out by Americans ... 去形容美国人...
... operating in our prison system and the war on terror. ...执行监狱制度和开展恐怖战争
However, if it's the Chinese who've done these things to an American airman, 但是呢, 要是中国人对一个美国空军做了相同的事,
the NY Times has no compunctions about calling those things TORTURE 纽约时报就会绝不手软地称这些事为"折磨/拷问"
The only way to combat corruption, to Steven Levitt, 在列维特看来, 打击舞弊的唯一方法,
is to change rules to undo corruption incentives 就是改变规则, 破坏舞弊的激励因素
Unleash more investigative reporters 解放更多调查记者
and develop strong protections for whistle blowers. 为揭秘者提供更有力的保护
But that's easier said than done when cultural slogans 但是知易行难. 美国和日本
in American and Japan that we are honest, straightforward 的文化口号都叫得非常响亮:
and fundamentally good. 我们很诚实很坦白
Those who expose corruption 揭发舞弊或贿赂的人
are challenging the very nature of who imagine of ourselves to be 是在挑战我们理想中的自己
The irony of our Sumo Wrestling 讽刺的是
was when it became public, the Sumo Wrestlers stopped cheating. 揭秘事件公开后, 相扑手停止作弊了
and they're not for good, they actually stopped cheating for a year or two 不是永久的, 他们停止作弊大概一两年吧
and once people stopped thinking about it, they went back to it. 当人们停止留意这事情的时候, 又故态复萌了.
but that I think is the answer how you stopped cheating. 但我在乎的是如何停止作弊.
Louis Brandeis said that sunlight was the best disinfectant. Louis Brandeis(最高法院法官)说过阳光是最好的杀毒剂
What keeps us from seeing corruptions are our illusions 假象蒙蔽我们双眼,让我们看不到舞弊事情
that our economy is a rational system. 让我们觉得我们的经济体是个理性的体制
A free market, opened to all 市场自由, 对所有人开放
The fact is that rigging markets and matches is good business 事实是, 操控市场和比赛是门好生意
If the rigging is hidden from all but a few 因为作弊只有少数人知道
In Shinto, the mirror is an important symbol 神道教认为, 镜子是很重要的象征
reflecting a sense of who we are 反映我们自己
In that mirror, the bad heart is a hidden heart 在这面镜子里, 隐藏的心就是不好的心
The pure heart is the one that hides nothing 纯洁的心不隐藏任何东西
Looking at the numbers and accept what they tell us 看看数据, 接受里面的故事
is a way of wiping dust away from the mirror 是一种擦去镜上尘埃的好方法
因果关系 Hi there boys and girls 嗨,小朋友们
this is Captain Kangaroo 我是袋鼠船长
Say, I like you to meet a friend of mine 说,我想你去见见我的一个朋友
say, you know it's a lot and lot of fun to have a pet 说,你知道养宠物的许多乐趣
that you can run, jump and play with, isn't it? 你可以和宠物玩, 跑跑跳跳
But did you know there're kids that cannot run, jump and play? 但是, 你知道有许多孩子不能跑不能跳不能玩吗?
It's all because a thing called Polio 那是因为一种叫小儿麻痹症的疾病
When I think of bad historical assumptions about 我在想, 历史上关于相关性和因果关系,
correlations and causeality, I think of Polio 100 years ago. 的许多设想都不好, 这是我又想起了一百年前的小儿麻痹症
When it was this horrible mystery that claiming a lot of lives 当时有个很恐怖的神秘疾病夺走了许多生命
And it was really scary cuz it mostly struck children. 疾病引起大众恐慌, 因为它主要侵袭孩童
And there was a strong line of resarch that suggested ice-cream 当时有一系列调查, 说冰激凌
cause polio, that ice-cream consumption cause Polio. 导致小儿麻痹, 说吃了就会得小儿麻痹
Here comes Mr. Softy, the soft ice-cream man. 傻子先生来了, 卖冰激凌的那个
The reason that correlation was thought to be causal 人们觉得两者是因与果的关系
was that Polio spiked in the summer time 原因是小儿麻痹的发病高峰期在夏天
For reasons, that weren't really understood, but it did. 其实大家都不太明白为什么, 但事实就是这样
And ice-cream sales spiked in the summer time. 冰激凌卖得最好也是在夏天
So, these researchers're seeing that whenever a lot of ice-cream are being sold, 所以,这些调查人员就觉得, 冰激凌卖得多
and consumed, there was a lot more Polio. 吃得多, 小儿麻痹就多
And that was literally the beginning of ice-cream prosecution 这确实是对冰激凌控诉的源头
to try to stomp out Polio. And it sounds rediculous, 以为禁卖冰激凌就可以压制小儿麻痹. 听上去很荒唐,
but you see it all the time now - 但是现在你看看-
people try to fight against or build up something that they're sure 一直以为, 人们就试图打击或者树立一些他们确信
that's connected to something else, but turns out it just isn't. 互有关系的事情. 但后来证明两者根本无关.
人生不能事事全美/犯罪分子都到哪里去了
We have a crime problem that is not out of control 现在有个犯罪事件失控了
-all over the country -I am pro-choice -全国范围的事情 - 我主张堕胎合法化
extremists bombed more than 30 clinics across the country 极端主义分子全国范围内炸了30多间诊所
People like you allows baby ... 你们允许宝宝...
When I started studying crimes in the early 1990s, 我在二十世纪90年代开始研究犯罪
it was rough at its peak 那时候犯罪处处可见
the highest it's ever been in the history of United States 是美国历史上犯罪率最高的时期
and all the experts expect it to go higher and higher 专家都认为还会更高
The warnings are everywhere. 到处都是警告和提醒
But then, to everyone's surprise, something happened. 但是呢, 出乎大家意外的是, 发生了件事
I don't know, I guess you're right 我不知道, 没准你对吧
Supposed it'd be better off never been born at all. 也许不生出来会更好
-What did you say? -I said, "I wish I have never been born." - 你说什么? -我说, 我不出生最好了!"
Homocide rate went up in half of the nation's cities 全国一半城市的谋杀案越来越多的
(Christmas, 1989) 373 homocides last year (1989年, 圣诞) 去年共373起谋杀案 [homocide是不是拼错了..]
up 65.7% over 1987 超越1987年达百分之65.7
Murder is a national problem - 谋杀已是全国性问题-
up an average 11% across the country. 全国平均上升了百分之11
In Bucharest tonight, the post communist leader Nicolae Ceauseascu 今晚在罗马尼亚首都, 后共产主义领导人Nicolae Ceau?escu
and his wife, had been executed. 还有他妻子, 双双被处决
Pictures of the former communist dictator lying in state 以下是前共产主义独裁者躺下的图片
-excuted by the firing squad -Crime and violence are now -他被行刑枪决队处决 -犯罪和暴力现在
... the top concerns of many Americans. ... 是许多美国人最关心的问题
You've been given a great gift George. George你被赋予了一份礼物
A chance to see what the world would be like without you. 有个机会让你看看,没了你世界会变成何样
As the 1980s drew to a close, law enforcement experts predicted 二十世纪80年代快结束的时候, 法律执行专家预计
that the crime rate that has been preceeding decades 持续了数十年的犯罪率会达到一个
would continue to rise. 会继续上升
Would be the decade of the mega criminal 会是一个超大犯罪年代
There was only one problem ... it didn't happen. 只是一个问题... 事情并非这样.
Across America, the crime rate is down. 全美的犯罪率下降了
The FBI has some good news about crime, it's down. FBI带来了犯罪的最新信息, 它下降了
It's clear the numbers are dropping, what's not clear is why. 大家都知道犯罪数在下降, 却不知道原因.
What's behind this dramatic change? 这个急剧变化的背后是什么的?
Primarily it's the Police, the police strategies. 首先是警方, 警方的策略变了
We've incarcerated our criminals and thus taken out the population. 我们已经逮捕了罪犯, 让他们远离民众
Without those people, who did the crimes. 没了这些人, 就没人犯罪了
Experts and officials lined up to offer explanations for the drop in crime 大家都期待专家和官员为犯罪率下降作出结束, 他们也说了许多
Community police officers, better prevention 社区警察, 更好的防御
Their explanation included more innovative policing, 这些解释包括整顿措施更崭新
harsher criminal sentences, changes in the crack market, 犯罪判决更重, 破获犯罪市场的手段改变
increase gun control, a strong economy, more police on the streets 加强了枪支控制, 经济增长, 街道更多警察巡逻
But economist Steven Levitt examined these explanations. 但是经济学家史蒂芬列维特检查这些所谓解释
Evaluated the most popular ones. 对最流行的几种说法进行了评估
When you looked at the data carefully, 你仔细看看那些数据
it's just not clear that they really have that impact that people have suspected. 其实人们以为的影响, 其实作用没那么明显.
By ananlyzing the reasons most often cited by those in the press, 分析了报纸最常提到的原因
Levitt was able to separate the more likely factors 列维特把最有可能的因素
from the less likely ones 和最不可能的因素区分开来了
The crime drop explanation most often cited 人们最常提到的犯罪下降原因
was that innovative policing strategies 是革新的治安策略
had been introduced to some cities. 被带到了一些城市.
NY City, for example, implementeded sweeping law enforcement changes 比方说,纽约, 全面改变法律的实施
from Police Chief Willam Bratton's CompStat System 从警察局长Willam Bratton的Compstat系统
to Mayor Rudolph Giuliani's crack down on small street crime 到Rudolph Giuliani市长减少了街道小型犯罪
The reductions in crime that has been taken place in NY City 纽约的犯罪率下降
are pretty close to miraculous 可以说不可思议
NY City, had among the biggest declines in crime 纽约已是全国里犯罪下降
of any city in the country. 最多的城市
So, there's an enormous amount of fan fair ... 所以, Guliani和Bratton的策略
... given to the strategies of Guliani and Bratton. 已被许多人捧上天了
But crime fell everywhere, 但是那是犯罪下降的现象俯拾即是
it's hard to find any city in United States where crime didn't plunge. 很少见到美国哪里的犯罪率没下降的
And also, crime was down 20-30% before Gulian ever took office. 还有, Guliani上任之前犯罪率已下降了百分之20多
So, a number of things make me suspecious 所以呢, 诸多事情我让我产生怀疑
that it was really the Placing Strategies. 怀疑这是个地点策略(营销学策略4个P之一)
The second reason most cited for the crime drop, 被最常列出的犯罪减少的第二个原因
was an increase in reliance on prisons. 是对监狱的依赖性增加
We've locked up a million more americans since the 1990s 自二十世纪90年代起, 我们已监禁了百万多人
There are now 2 millions americans in prison, 现在监狱里有二百万人
and that's got to reduce crime. 犯罪当然得减少
Levitt recognizes that in prison more people will ... 列维特认识到, 监禁越多人
in short term, bring crime rate down. 短期内, 会让犯罪率减少
By my estimate, about 30% of the decline in crime 我估计, 百分之三十的下降
can be attributed to the fact that we got very tough on crime 可归因于我们对监禁囚犯
in terms of locking up criminals. 态度严厉
This is crack cocaine 这是纯度可卡因
The 3rd explanation for the crime drop, most often cited in the press, 媒体报导得最多的理由之三,
were changes in the crack market. 是毒品市场的改变
Now experts say, crack cocaine may finally be on the decline. 现在专家们说, 纯度可卡因应该最后会越来越少
The peak of the crack epidemics came in at the late 80s and the early 90s 可卡因的流行在八十年代末九十年代初达到巅峰
At that time, an enormous amount of the homocide in particular 那时候, 犯罪之所以猖獗,
can be attributed to the crack. 尤其可以归咎于毒品
But for various reasons 但是由于种种原因
the amount of violence that has been associated with the crack trade 毒品交易有关的暴力事件
really faded. 着实减少了
That's not the move no more 毒品趋势变了
So that can explain 15% of the decline in crime. 所以这个又可以解释百分之十五的犯罪减少
Other possible reasons for the crime drop examined by Levitt include: 列维特检查出来的理由还包括
tougher gun laws. 枪支法律更严厉
the 1990s economic boom and an increase in police nation wide. 二十世纪90年代的经济腾飞, 和全国警察数增加
So Levitt did not entirely discount these 列维特没有全面否定这些理由
He sees these only account for a small fraction 他看到的是, 这些对于罪案减少只是
of the overall crime drop 起到小部分作用
There are millions factors that drive crime, 促使人们犯罪有许许多多因素
but how do you determine the particular competition? 但是如何去判定这特别的竞赛?(这些理由谁才是最主要的)
Overall, what Levitt found from all these reasons 全面地看, 列维特发现这些理由
was taken together, they only explain half of 1990s crime drop. 加起来, 也只能对90年代的罪案减少解释一半
The other half remained a mystery. 另外的一半仍然成谜
So what happened? 那, 发生什么事呢?
Well, let's rewind 好吧, 我们倒倒带
to what many Americans may have seen as irrelevant incident 去看看美国人都觉得远在天边, 且风马牛不相及的
in a far away place. 一起事件.
When Romanian dictator Nicolae Ceausescu 罗马尼亚独裁者Nicolae Ceausescu(尼古拉·齐奥塞斯库)
was executed by his own people on Christmas Day 1989, 在1989的圣诞被处决
it marked the end of the brutal totalitarian rein 这标志着残暴的极权主义统治
that has lasted 24 years. 在持续了24年后走到了尽头
In his earliest days, Ceausescu's Romania faces struggling economy 在其上任初期, 齐奥塞斯库统治下的罗马尼亚正面临着不景气的经济
and he sought to vastly increase the workforce. 他力图大幅度增加劳动人口
To achieve this, Ceausescu outlawed abortion in 1966. 为了达到目的, 齐奥塞斯库于1966年宣布堕胎不合法
Agents known as the Montrose Police 有一批特工,被称为蒙特罗斯差人
rounded up women to give pregnancy tests 围捕妇女, 要她们进行验孕
and attacks the infertile. 谁不生育谁就被攻击
Across Romania, women were forced to have children 整个罗马尼亚, 妇女都被迫生小孩
and they could no longer choose whether it was right to do so. 这是对是错,她们也无从选择
Romania's birthrate doubled. 罗马尼亚出生率翻了一番
But more and more births across the country were, not surprisingly, unwanted. 但是,宝宝越来越多, 其实大家都觉得没必要.
And result in trouble up bringing. 导致了问题丛生
Of the infants forcibly born in the first year, 头一年被强迫生下来的宝宝
more disenroll school, suffered more job performance, 有许多没被学校录取, 业绩压力大
and with thus more likely to become criminals, 由此,许多变成了罪犯
than those born of the previous year. 这些情况比前一年出世的孩子严重得多
Even controlling for the aids, income, health and education of the mother 还被艾滋, 收入和其母亲的教育程度所影响
But what do winds in Romania a long time ago, 但是这些在罗马尼亚的风暴
have to do with crimes in US in 1990s? 和90年代的美国案件有啥关系呢?
According to Steven Levitt ... a lot. 在列维特看来, 大有关系
You've been given a great gift George, a chance to see 乔治你是个幸运儿, 你有机会看看
what the world would be like without you. 这个世界没了你会变成什么样
What I believe to be true and the evidence supports it, 有证据支持我的看法
is a hypothesis which many people find jarring and disturbing. 我起了一个假设, 但是这个假设许多人会觉得很荒谬, 搅乱视听.
But nonetheless, I think it's probably right. 尽管如此, 我还是觉得它是有理的.
Good evening, in a landmark ruling that Supreme Court today legalize abortions. 晚上好, 最高法院今天宣布堕胎合法化, 这是一个划时代的判决
In 1973, in a case called "Roe V. Wade" 1973年, 有起"罗伊案"
the Supreme Cort rules that abortion, which has been only legal in 5 US states, 最高法院裁定堕胎全国合法化
would now be legal nation wide. 这本来只在5个州合法
Precisely the opposiste of what happened in Romania, 和罗马尼亚发生的事情恰恰南辕北辙
The legalized abortions in 1970s, 70年代的合法堕胎
was one of the prime reason why crime fell in the 1990s. 是90年代罪案减少的其中一个最主要原因
Because the whole generation of unwanted children were never born, 因为没必要生的一代真不会降生了
because of legalization of abortion. 就因为堕胎已合法化
If you fast-forward 20 years 要是事情早20年发生
to the point in time when they were going to be their peak crime ages, 那时候正是犯罪高峰期
they simply weren't there to do the crime. 那他们就不会去犯罪了(指人口太多导致犯罪了)
You see George, you really had a wonderful life. 乔治你看看, 你确实有过美好的人生
Don't you see what a mistake it would be to ... throw it away? 你就这么把人生放弃, 不觉得是个错误吗?
The trouble, of course, is that life isn't like the movies. 当然, 问题在于, 人生不是电影
For so many children who, without "Roe V. Wade", 要是没有"罗伊案", 许多孩子
would have been born in 1973, 理应在1973年出世
their lives might not have been a wonderful life 也许他们的人生并不美好
that've been born in a loving family, in yesterday's small town America. 因为本来他们是要在一个老式的美国小镇, 生活在一个充满爱的家庭里
Rather, they'd be a far harder road - 然而, 道路艰难
been born into a potentially unwanted household 因为你也许是个不被需要的家庭一份子
in American's crumbling little cities, or forsaken heartland. 不管是在美国的破落小城市, 还是在辉煌不再的中心地带
Levitt's conclusion: "As much as half of the 1990s crime drop, 列维特总结道:" 90年代的罪犯减少, 有一半原因
was an unintended consequence of Roe V. Wade." 是因为罗伊案, 即便看起来是无心插柳
The theory behind it was quite simple, 背后的理论很简单,
Unwanted children, have been shown to be at high risk for crime. 不想要的孩子, 大家都觉得他们很可能犯罪
With legalized abortion, fewer unwanted children were born. 堕胎合法化后, 不想要的孩子少降生了
Therefore, the theory would be that there'd be less crime in 15-20 years later. 所以, 理论就是, 15到20年后, 罪案就少了
When those quahogs reach their peak crime ages 即使这些人到了极易犯罪的年龄
And the data support that hypothesis,quite strongly. 而数据确实非常有力地支持了这一假说.
If you follow the data, 你看看数据
there were 5 states that legalized abortions, 3 years before "Roe Vs. Wade" 在"罗伊案"发生的前3年, 有5个州合法化堕胎
and about 15 years later, their crimes begins to fall, 15年后, 罪案开始减少
3 years before the rest of the country. 比起其他地区, 快了3年
Then if you look at states where abortion was not just legal, 你再看看某些州份, 堕胎未合法化的,
but is available to people who wanna get them ... 但是在"罗伊案"的16或17年之后
... 16, 17 years after "Roe Vs. Wade" 堕胎已不再是难事
you see a 30% difference 可以看到,
between the states doing a lot of abortions and ones that are doing very few. 堕胎较多的州和较少的州, 罪案率相差百分之三十
Finally, all of the effect we see in a in a diverse in crime, 最后, 我们看到, 从事各种各样的罪案的人
all of that is concentrated among people under the age of 25. 集中于25岁以下
People young enough to have been exposed to legalized abortion. 这些人都很年轻, 正是合法化堕胎影响的一代
People older than 25, 25岁以上的人
here's no difference whatsoever 在堕胎较多的州
between the high abortion state and the low abortion states. 和较少的州, 就没什么区别了
And I think in some way that's the best evidence we have, 我认为, 在一定程度上, 最有力的证据就是
that legalized abortions is responsible for a big chunk of the decline in crime. 堕胎合法化是罪案减少的一大主因
Levitt's controversal theory has provoked strong reactions among critics. 列维特的理论因为了批评界的巨大反响, 争议不断.
Is he, for example, avocating abortions as a crime fighting tool. 比方说, 他是在提倡堕胎, 当堕胎是个对抗犯罪的工具吗?
In no way would I take this as advocacy in favor of legalized abortion. 我绝对不是以这个去提倡堕胎合法化
I don't think anyone's opinion about whether abortion should be legal or not 我觉得,任何人对于堕胎是否合法的观点,
should be affected by our result. 不要被我们的结果所影响
Some of Levitt's critics suggested that 一些批评列维特的人暗示
his theory holds what might have been classed a racial implications. 他的理论很可能被归类为带有种族性的
He argues, though, that raising class has nothing to do with the matter. 但是,他辩驳道, 种族问题和为人父母的问题绝不相干
That his theory targets no specific group, 他的理论没有专门针对哪个群体
other than mothers-to-be of all backgrounds. 也没有针对任何背景的准妈妈
And since, as Levitt points out, women who're led to abort 后来, 列维特指出, 被引导去流产的女士
go on to become child bearers consistent with the general population. 会继续怀胎, 继续做母亲
Levitt's argument could thus be undertood to suggest that 所以列维特的论点可以理解为, 他是说
legalized abortion does not so much prevent birth, 合法化堕胎不能阻止太多宝宝出世
as delay it. 只是延迟而已
This turns an unwanted birth by a too young mother, for example 譬如说, 一个妈妈太年轻了, 小孩子在一个不适合的时间降生
into a wanted birth by that mother when she feels more ready. 现在她可以在更有准备的情况下生, 孩子出世的时间刚好
So, if Levitt is not advocating abortion as a crime fighting tool, 那, 如果列维特不是在提倡将堕胎变为防止罪案的手段
what is he advocating? 那他在提倡什么呢?
Well, whether one is pro-life, pro-choice or somewhere in between 不管你是提倡保护婴儿生命, 提倡堕胎合法, 还是中立派
there's a meaningful and today unimpeached connection 现在这个说法很有意义, 而且在今天来说不受批评
between giving women the right to choose 把给妇女选择权
and the reduction in crime. 和减少罪案连结起来
[激励] 我们刚在面试 We started off in a normal interview post
and now you're lying down, swinging a pillow around 你现在却躺下来, 把枕头甩来甩去
What ... What's going on here? 接下来会怎样?
If I give you a slice of juicy fruit, will you say whatever I want 我给你片很美味的水果, 你会跟我说我想听的吗?
No 不会
No?! 不会?!
Wait, I heard that you'll do anything for a slice of juicy fruit 等等, 我听说你会为了美味的水果做任何事
No matter how smart you are, 不管你有多聪明
and I kind of think they're pretty smart, 我也觉得他们很聪明
you come up with some incentive scheme that you think is a perfect one 你提出一个自以为很完美的激励计划
to entice exactly the behavior you have in mind. 去诱导出你想要的行为
And you send an army of people with nothing to do all day 但你派一军的人, 整天无所事事
but to figure out how to beat this incentive scheme 要搞清楚怎样打垮这个激励计划
-and absolutely it'll be beaten -Well, tell me about ... - 那这个计划当然不奏效 - 跟我说说...
... about Amanda ... Amanda的事
This is a long story 说来话长
I'll give you an example, so 举个例吧
We were trying to potty train Amanda 我们之前打算训练幼儿期的Amanda
and my wife went books and did all the things you're told to do 我老婆买了很多书, 做了所有书上建议做的事
Amanda had been potty trained 她就教Amanda用幼儿便盆
and she just decided she wouldn't use the toilet ... anymore. 而她死活不用... 就是不用...
And this went on for months, my wife was frustrated. 这样持续了几个月, 我老婆泄气了
And I said, I'm an economist, I understand... I'll take over. 我就说, 我是个经济学家, 我在行... 我来.
And I got right down on Amanda's level on my knees and I knew what ... 我就跪下来, 和女儿说话. 我知道...
she likes more than anything else, she's about 3 years old, were MMs. 她最喜欢什么了, 她才3岁, 她就是喜欢M&Ms巧克力
And I said,"If you go pee pee in the potty, I'll give you a bag of MMs." 我说: "如果你在便盆里尿尿, 我就给你巧克力."
she said,"Right now?", I said "Yeah". 她说:"现在?", 我说"对"
said,"Ok"; and she hopped on the potty went, went to the bathroom 她说:"好"; 立马到洗手间,跳上便盆
I turned to my wife and said,"Let the economist handle it, you know." 我走过去跟老婆说:"让经济学家来吧."
And indeed, for the next couple of days, it worked to perfection. 接下来的日子, 这招都很管用
And everytime she has to go bathroom, she announced it. 每次她要去洗手间的时候, 她就嚷嚷
She went to the bathroom, we gave her the MMs. 她去洗手间, 我们就给巧克力
Everything had gone great. 顺顺利利的
But 3 days later, she said "I have to go to the bathroom" 但是3天之后, 她说:"我要去洗手间"
She went and took a lot of few drops, I gave her the MMs 她去尿了几滴, 我就给她巧克力
She got off, she said "I have to go again" 她回来了, 又说:"我又要去"
She sat down the potty, 她坐到便盆上
taking a few more drops, I gave her the MMs. 尿了几滴, 我给她巧克力
"Got to go again" "又要去了"
Basically, in 3 days she's gone from someone with no bladder control 基本上呢, 3天内她从一个不会控制尿尿的宝宝
to be so professional that she can control the flow completely at whim 变成了一个可以随意控制尿尿的高手
And had.. a 3 year old had basically come up with 一个3岁的娃儿, 就想到了
a way to beat the incentive scheme I had developed ... 一个基本上搅乱我激励计划的法子
... within 3 days that in a million years I would never have imagined. ..就在3天之内, 这个法子我想几万年都想不出来
If an economist can't trick a 3 year old for more than 3 days, 如果一个经济学家不能哄一个小孩多过3天
What hope does an economist have tricking the whole country for even 3 hours? 还怎么指望他可以哄一个国家即使三个小时?
So, that's kind of the beauty of incentives 不管怎么说, 这就是激励的魅力
You don't really know what works and government think 你真不知道什么会起作用, 而政府的人认为
they know what works and they spend a huge amount of resources 他们知道什么起作用, 他们就花一大堆资源
establishing incentives 去建立各种激励体制
and they gonna do all these things seem to make lots of sense 然后他们就会做一大堆看起来很有道理的事情
it sounds really great and may work out well in some measure 这些功夫看起来都很好, 多多少少都会起作用
But they're gonna backfire in so many different ways 但是呢, 他们总是会遭到各种各样事与愿违的结果
That we can't predict yet. 全都出乎意料
And people will laugh and people will cry. And that's what incentives are. 有的人笑有的人哭. 这就是激励所产生的结果.
CAN A 9TH GRADER BE BRIBED TO SUCCEED? 一个九年级生能被收买,达至成功吗?
伙计, 我给你制剂,你给我烟好吗?
What you guys putting in this? 你放这个干吗?
Get it right over there, you wanna do it right now. 射到那边,你立刻
Right now you stupid ass. 立刻你个头
Clear! 全中!
It's going 要来咯
That was nothing 什么都没有
Make another one. 再弄个
I know I can do good in school but I don't 我知道我可以做个好学生, 但是我没有
I have a reputation of bad child 我就是个坏孩子
Parents are way too uptight in kids' business, like ... 父母对孩子都太紧张, 就像...
Where you gonna go? What you doing? When are you coming home? 你上哪儿去? 你在干什么? 你几点回家?
It maybe like "Hey you have homework?" and I'll say "No" 或者是 "你做功课了吗?", 我会说"没有"
or "I forget my books, I'll do it in the morning." 或者" 忘了带书. 明早做."
-That works? -Ah huh -有用吗? -嗯
Gets them off my dick 把他们糊弄过去了
What's up? 怎么了?
Hopefully, I'll make to highschool if I fail 我希望吧, 考砸了也能上高中
I guess I'll try to get a GED through the millitary or something 我想我可以通过参军或什么的拿个一般同等文凭(General Equivalent Diploma)
I have no clue 我也不晓得
一个九年级生能被收买,达至成功吗? [一个经济学的实验]
In the modern economy, not graduating from highschool, 在现代经济体里, 没有高中毕业
is like an economic death sentence. 等于被判了经济学上的死刑
When you talking about highschool kids, 说到高中的孩子
what matters to them is what happens today, 对他们来说, 能想到今天发生的事
a month from now or 6 months from now. 一个月后的事,或者半年后的事
You have a very forward-looking mindset 这样你已经很有远见了
I think ... most kids are dull 我觉得...大多数孩子很迟钝
In designing incentives to help kids get through school, 在设计激励机制, 帮助孩子们完成学业
we've got to have that conundrum in mind 我们必须把这个难题加以考虑
The idea was for the University of Chicago to see if 这个构想是为芝加哥大学而设, 看看
students could increase their test scores 学生们能不能提高他们的成绩 [Glen Giannetti 芝加哥206高校分区 校监]
simply by giving them a financial ... incentive. 仅仅是给他们金钱上的...激励.
If it works for 1 student, then it's good enough for me because 要是对一个学生起作用, 对我来说也是好事, 因为
we have no stake in it financially. 我们没有财务上的困难
The University of Chicago is picking up the tab. 芝加哥大学承担费用
Why wouldn't we at least try it? 那为何不试试呢?
I'm thinking, it's going to work. 我觉得, 应该能行
Opportunity - you'll always miss 100% of the shots you don't take. 机会-你不尝试,永远不能中的
And, that's my message to the students. 这个是我对学生赠言
I don't need to put my degrees up on the wall, 我不需要把自己的学位放在墙上
I already have those. 我已经有了
I want them to get those. 我希望他们能获得
How has it been starting a new school? 在新学校过得怎样?
It's actually not that bad, I like it here 其实不赖, 我喜欢这里
-Yea? -It's really easy -Oh the classes are really easy? -Oh, yea -真的? -很轻松 -课程都轻松? -是啊 [Sally Sadoff 芝加哥大学 经济学家]
Let's see, pull out your report card and see how you're doing right now. 拿出你的报告卡, 看看你现在做得怎样
-So, we can see your grades -Yea, not that good - 看看你的成绩 - 不是很好
Alright, so what do you need to improve on? 那, 你需要改进什么?
Everything 样样都要
Ok, but you know I'm seeing grades go up a lot so ... ok, 但我看到你的成绩提高了不少...
... so you'd probaly wanna know what to get, right? if you ... ...那你大概知道你能拿到什么,对吧? 要是你...
do meet the monthly achievement standards?! 能达到月度成绩标准?!
-Sure -Ok, so open up your folder -当然 - 那你打开看看
Fifty bucks? 50元?
Yea, you get the $50 every month as long as you keep your grades up 没错, 只要成绩继续提高, 每个月就能拿五十元
Alright 好
I think a lot of people here are gonna do their homeworks then 我以为许多人在这里做功课, 但是...
-Yea, what about you, why you? -$50 can buy a lot ...ah - 为什么是你? - 五十元能买许多东西
-It can buy -You know, it can pay for my skateboards -能买 -能买滑板
So then I could get sponsored, get free clothse and stuffs. 那我就能得到赞助, 有免费衣服和物品
Till I graduate 知道我毕业
Kevin Muncy 凯文 蒙西 - 一月成绩 世界历史-不及格; 生物-D; 体育-D; 英语-不及格;艺术-不及格; 代数-不及格
-How's school today, ok? -Amazing -Good -今天在学校怎样? - 很棒 -那就好
Kevin came home from school and says, "Mom ..." Kevin从学校回来, 说:"妈..."
" ... if I do really good, I can get paid for it." "...要是我学习好, 我就能付滑板的钱."
"Mom, I could really make money." "妈,我真的能挣钱."
I'm like, "Fine, Kevin, go for it." 我就说:"很好,儿子,去做吧." [Marcy:Kevin妈]
I said, "And I'll tell you what, you keep your grades up ..." 我说:"我跟你说, 你继续提高成绩..."
"you're gonna get the money, .... mom will double it." "你能拿到钱... 妈妈再赏你."
Whatever they give you, mom will match it. 他们给你多少, 妈妈就给多少.
-Alright -Then you'll have double the money. -好. -那你就有双份的奖励.
-If the grades go up -Right -如果你成绩好起来. -好
A little bit of bribery? What parent doesn't do that?! 一丁点的收买而已, 为何父母不去做呢?
We all bribed our kids one way or another 我们都多多少少收买孩子
-One, two, three, four,five -Bribery works for my kids - 1,2,3,4,5 -贿赂对我孩子很管用 [Sophie:列维特女儿]
They love to be bribed 他们喜欢被收买
-Eight, nine, ten -8,9,10
For 50 cents, I can buy whatever I want in my household 50美分, 我就能收服他们
Oh I forgot this dollar 忘了数这张
The closest thing in the world I would say to freakin' out is that incentives matter 要我说世上最让人兴奋的东西, 就是激励
Not just financial incentives but social incentives and moral incentives. 不只是金钱上的激励, 社会性的激励, 道德上的激励
Our goal was to figure out: 我们的目标是弄清楚:
Can we cheaply and quickly move the needle at a school? 我们能不能在学校里便宜且快捷地产生积极影响?
Can we get kids to achieve more as quickly as possible? 我们能不能让孩子尽快地取得好成绩?
with spending very little money. 只用那么一点钱.
There are 900 freshmen in our experiment, 我们这次实验了900个新生
At the end of every month, we hold a payout event 每月月底, 我们都举行例行奖赏
where all kids who got all Cs or above receive $50 in cash. 全部拿C的孩子,能拿五十块现金
In addition, those who quality are also elegible for lottery, 再者, 那些合资格参加乐透的
where they can win $500. 就有机会赢500块
To win the money, 要赢得奖金
They have to have no more than 1 unexcused absence 他们不能有多于一次的无理缺席
No all day suspensions 不能旷课
And all your grades at the end of the month have to be a C or higher 还有, 所有的月底成绩都要达到C或以上
It's great to give them this financial reward, 给他们物质报酬其实很好
but it's also about having a lot of fanfair around it 他们也很喜欢
Giving them this big checque, sending them home in a Hummer limo. 给他们一张大支票, 用悍马送他们回家
You think, there's definitely a limo effect. 你想象, 这个完全是豪华轿车效应
That is so cool 酷毙了
Are you serious?! They got to ride in it?! 开玩笑的吧?! 他们有悍马?
Aw, that is so awsome! 啊,帅呆了!
Oh My God! This is awsome! 天哪! 帅死了!
Oh yes, yes, you're getting straight As from me. 好,好, 我给全A你们瞧瞧
Yes! 棒!
There's lot of things I'd do for money I mean 为了钱我会拼命
I work all year round 我用全年无休去工作
Hi, I'm a representative of .... 我是个代表...
we charge $3 for a walkway and $5 for a driveway 人行道3美元, 车道5美元
would you like to hire us for our services today? 你今天要雇用我们吗?
Hook, line, and sinker 招客, 电话, 然后挂掉
They say money doesn't buy happiness, 人们说金钱买不到幸福
and I agree but I disagree. 我同意又不同意
Depends how you look at it, 在于你怎么看
Because when they say money cannot buy happiness, 因为, 当他们说金钱买不到幸福,
they're saying materials things cannot make a person happy. 他们是说物质不能让一个人开心
Wanna bet? 要赌一把吗?
Urail King - 一月成绩 生物-C; 体育-不及格; 世界历史-D 英语-C; 电脑- B; 代数-C
Okay, BPL083, unfortunate that person did not meet the standards this month BPL083, 遗憾此人本月未能达标
we cannot give them the money. 我们不能给奖金
You know what you need to do next month, right? 你知道下个月要做什么了吧
-Yea -So you think you'll be meeting the standards next month? -Oh yea -知道. -那你觉得下个月能达标吗? -可以
-Alright -I took a look into the limo thing and I was like ... -好 - 我瞧了下豪华车, 我就...
Oh, you've seen the limosine outside? 你从外面看到了豪车?
It was awsome! 帅死了!
The lights, the way it was layed out ... 那些灯, 它摆出的架势...
Take us home, Jekins ... it's gonna be so cool! Jekins, 载我们回家... 太棒了!
These are my halls! These are my halls! 这是我的走廊! 这是我的走廊!
Cuz I'm a King that's my last name. 因为我就姓"国王".
The King~ 国王~
-5 or 7 of prime, so that's ... -Write it! - 5和7是质数, 所以... -写啊!
-Show your work -让我们看看你的作品
-5, you can't break down 5 because it is a prime number -5, 5不能被整除因为它是个质数
Show your work ... I need you to ... do 秀出来...我要你...做
-I'm gonna do 7 through 12 -No, I said 1 through 6 -我从7做到12 -不,我说从6开始
You don't get to pick 你不用选
It's really important for me for him to finish school, 他完成学业对我来说很重要 [Teresa:Urail妈]
because I didn't. 因为我没有毕业
He's very intelligent, he needs to focus. 他很聪明的, 他需要的就是专心
They got to find something to get these kids 要找些东西, 让孩子
into going to school and get their grades up. 上学,提高成绩
Hello? 哈罗?
Hi, my name is Eliah, I'm calling on behalf of the Chicago High School 嗨,我是Eliah, 我代表芝加哥高中给您打电话
Is Guela Lupaia available? Guela Lupaia在吗?
Is Hector available? Hector方便吗?
Is Mark available? Mark方便吗?
This is a message for Jessica Richardson, 这是给Jessica Richardson的信息
wanted to congratulate her on meeting the monthly achievement this month 想要恭喜她本月达标了
so she's eligible to win $500 所以她能拿到伍佰元
And also, just let you know to have her keep an eye on her math and biology grades 再者, 这能让你知道, 要她注意数学和生物成绩
cuz they're on a C right now. 因为现在两科只是C.
Hi, this is Sally Sladoth from the University of Chicago, 嗨, 这是芝加哥大学的Sally Sladoth
Is Kevin Muncy there? Kevin Muncy在吗?
Hi this is Kevin 嗨,我是Kevin
Hi Kevin, I'm looking at your grades, 嗨Kevin, 我在看你的成绩
and it looks like you need to bring some of them up, 看来你还得提高成绩
are you doing something to work on bringing up your grades? 你会加把劲吗?
I'm not gonna lie, I haven't done every assignment, so far 我不打算撒谎, 我没有做作业, 到现在都没做
So are you going to your teachers and 那你会不会到老师那里
ask if you can make up the missing assignments? 问问能不能补上功课?
Ah yeah, they're actually making a list for me right now. 会, 他们现在给我个单子
-That's great, so you gonna try to make those up -Yea -很好, 那你准备补回来 -对
Cuz the thing is if you can trun in missing assignments, 因为如果你能交上错过的作业,
you can bring up the grade a lot. 你就能提高成绩
because you go from having no credit for the assignment, 因为这门功课你是从零分开始
to getting some credit or even a lot of credit 现在要开始拿分, 拿许多分
-that'll make your grades bounce up a lot. -Yea - 这才能提高成绩 -嗯
-So, you going to get the $50 for this month? - If I have my best, yea -那你准备这个月拿五十元? -我尽力的话就可以
-Are you gonna be doing your best? -Yea -你会尽力? -嗯
Alright, that's what I like to hear 好的, 这个我喜欢听
-Alright, take care, have a good day. -Alright, you too, bye. -Bye - 好吧, 保重, 过个好日子 -好,你也是,拜. -拜
Huh, what? what? what? what? 什么?什么?什么?什么?
Nick买了大力胶回来. 我们封他的口, 看他说不说事实
Go duct tape him. 那就封吧
... chromosomal #21, down syndrome are clear 21号染色体, 很明显是唐氏综合症
So, if you have normal splitting, 所以, 如果你分裂正常
this is what happens, we're making sperm here .... 就是这样, 这里产生精子
-Mr. Garshorn, can Tyler come help me? -Sure -Garshorn老师, 能叫Tyler过来帮我吗? -可以
You just wanna copy Lindsey's? 你要抄Lindsey的吗?
No, just tell her to come back here. 不, 叫她过来就好
Lindsey Lindsey
Do you have that? 你有这个吗?
Kevin - 三月成绩 世界历史-D; 生物-不及格
Urail - 三月成绩 生物-D; 体育-D; 世界历史-C
Congratulations, you met the standards [三月奖金发放] 恭喜, 你达标了
Congratulations, you get the $50 this month. 恭喜, 这个月你能拿五十块
-Unfortunately, you didn't meet the standards this month -Great -你不走运, 这个月没达标. - 好
It's just on the grey category, you need to bring up these ... 上面的灰色项目, 你要提高成绩的
grades to ... to be passing ...直到合格
So, let's take a look here ... Algebra you're passing, that's good 我们看看这里... 代数你过了, 很好
So, what's going on in Biology and World History? 那生物和世界史怎么回事?
Are you missing assignments? 你没做作业?
His history teacher said he should be in his honor class 他历史老师说, 他理应到资优班的
but the simple fact that he's not doing the work, that's why he's not there. 但是,他没有做功课. 所以到不了那里
Have to do the work. 必须做作业
The trouble between me and my mom is mostly about homework. 我和妈的矛盾,主要是功课
Because, the way it is with her she's always "When I was in school, ... " 因为, 她总是说"我上学的时候..."
... we have homework everyday." ...我们每天都做作业."
And I'm trying to get her to understand it's 21st century. 我想要她明白,现在是21世纪
That was then and it is now. 那时是那时, 现在是现在
Teachers are now more lenient, and no offence, and start to care less ... 现在的老师更宽容,不会随便打骂学生, 也不会那么操心
Ok, so what do we have? 好的, 我们讲到哪里?
I think the results are great this month, 这个月通过率很好
where you see the control at 28, 之前都在28分左右
then all the treatment at 36-38 接受项目的人在36到38分
So, that seems great to me, you know ... 对我来说很不错,
When you go from 28-37, 从28到37 [John List-芝加哥大学经济学家]
-Right -I mean you're talking about ... -没错 - 你是说...
... close to a 30% increase, right? ...大概百分之30的增长?
So, seems like we are taking all the D kids to C 所以,拿D的学生似乎都拿C了
-and we're not doing anything for the E kids -Right -但是不及格的学生却没有进步 -对
The question is the kids moved from D to C this year, 问题是, 那些今年从D到C的孩子
are they gonna have a better life? 他们会有更好的人生吗?
-Right -I don't think we've the answer to that, overtime we'll find out ... -没错. -我觉得我们还没答案, 但是过后我们会知道
But I've definitely been surprised by how important ... 但是父母亲所做的, 所起到的作用..
... how well the parents groups are doing that ... 确实让我很惊讶
... parents still make a difference in 9th grades it looks like. 父母对九年级生还是很有影响
Mom, I took a quiz on this book 妈,我做了书上的一个测试
the Maken TerryBerry book, I took a quiz on that Maken TerryBerry那本书,我做了个小测
Did you read the book? 你读过那本书了吗?
I read the book 我读了
Did you? 真的?
I read the book, I read the book, I read the book but I ... 我看了, 我看了, 我看了, 但是...
-Did you READ the book? -Yes! -你读过书了没? - 有!
Cuz we have to search and read to find the answers 因为我们要调查,找出答案
we have to read the book to find the answers 我们要看书找答案
So, stop 停
Did you read the book or you just skim over the book? 你是读过书了, 还是扫了一下?
... to find the answer to the question that you were looking for? 找问题的答案就罢了?
Because, there's a difference 这是不一样的
We read it as a class, but when we took the test ... 我们在课堂上读过了, 但是我们做了测试...
he gives out the page and we have to look for the answers. 他给我们一页纸, 要我们找答案
Did you read the book without the class? 你在课堂以外读过书了没?
Did you read the book from cover to cover? 你是一页一页地读过了吗?
-Not from cover to cover -So, you didn't read the book -没有一页一页地看 -所以你是没有读书
-We have ... -You didn't read the book! -我们有.... -你没有读书!
-We didn't ... -You didn't read the book -我们没有.... -你没有读书!
You didn't read the book from cover to cover, 你没有一页一页地看书,
outside of class, with no help, no instructions from your teacher 你没有在课堂外, 没人辅助, 没老师指导之下
along with your classmate, you didn't read the book 没有同学陪伴之下读过书
that's why you failed the test. 所以你没及格
Look, I made a tattoo gun out of toothbrush 我用牙刷做了支纹身枪
and I was giving myself a tattoo in class 在课堂里给自己纹身
-You have a tattoo? -I'm giving it to myself -你有个纹身? -我自己刺的
I only did like a little bit 只是做了一点
I got to do it a lot better 本可以做得更好的
I can't let them see cuz I'll get into trouble, but ... 不能让他们看见, 不然我就麻烦了, 但是...
I made it out of toothbrush, and then just turn it on 我用牙刷做的, 打开就可以了.
I made it out of guitar string 用吉他弦做的
I don't think I'll take money for giving up my social life 我不会为了钱, 放弃我的社交生活
I wanna be the class clown 我想要当课室搞笑艺人
but I'm doing better cuz I went up 6% to ... almost a D 但我会努力, 我会提高百分之6的成绩.. 拿个D
That's a big change in couple weeks... 几个星期内算是个大转变了
that's... really dramatic 这个... 很了不起
He always likes to be the class clown, 他总是想在课室里搞笑
always likes get the laughing, impressing everybody around him 总是想得到笑声, 让身边的人都记住他
That could be his incentive 这对他来说是激励吧
But you'd think that ... 但你会想...
to impress everybody around you, your grade will be with that too. 要给身边的人留下印象, 成绩也可以做到
He's got something in the mail that showed the list of all his grades 他在邮件里收了封信, 上面有成绩单
E,E,E,E,E ... 全都是不及格...
and I said, oh he's enjoying 9th grade he's doing it again, so ... 我就说, 他很喜欢九年级, 所以要再读一次, 那...
Now what I need to do, is ... 现在我要做的是...
... whenever he asks me for money now, he's not gonna get it. 他再向我要钱, 他要不到了.
End of story. 就这样.
Yea. when the skateboard running out of wheels or getting bad ... 是啊. 滑板轮子坏了什么的...
Well then, just grinding them down, or hit the books or soemthing 那就好, 折磨下他们, 然后用功读书什么的
Urail, what does it mean to say a genotype is homozygous Urail, 基因体是纯合子的, 是什么意思?
-When all the "aline" are the same -When all of the Alios are the same -"直线"是一样的 - Alios是一样的
This is my last chance to win $500 这是我拿伍佰元的最后机会
I'm at the line, I'm splitting ... splitting a hair. 我发飙了, 我在... 一丝一毫都较劲
My brain's been going up and down. There's always something that'd distract me. 我脑子总是起起伏伏. 总是有事情让我分心
You know what I mean?! 你明白我意思?!
What's distracting me was ... trying to be cool ... 分心就是... 我想要冷静下来
... trying to keep up with the Johnsons basically. ...能赶上优等生
最后奖金发放
Congratulations, you made the standard achivement for the last month. 恭喜, 上个月你达标了
So, here's your report card and the bracelet. 这是你的成绩表, 还有手镯
Here's the front and here's the back. 这是前, 这是后.
Congratulations 恭喜
Great grades. 好成绩
Urail - 最后成绩 生物-C; 体育-C; 英语-B 世界史-B; 电脑-B; 代数-C
Kevin - 最后成绩 世界史;体育;生物; 英语;艺术;代数-全不及格
If I fail, I'm done, I'm dropping out. 我不及格, 就完了, 要退学了.
Army, marines, coast guard, go to Iraq or something like that. I've no clue. 陆军, 海军, 海岸防卫队, 到伊拉克什么的. 我没概念.
-Urail King -Yes! -Urail King -耶!
Take us home, Jekins Jekins, 载我们回家.
What are the final results are like? 最后结果如何?
Our program is getting 35-50% more students to pass 9th grade. 我们的项目让额外百分之35到50的学生过了九年级
5-7% boost in 9th grade passing rates. 九年级过级率有百分之5到7的增幅
We sure expect a lot higher rates than that. 我们期望更高的
We hope for a lot higher rates than that. 我们期望过级率更高的
If we give them $50k ... to pass the 9th grade ... 要是我们给五万块, 帮他们过级
what share do you think would pass? 你觉得哪一部分人会过?
Would we move 10% of the kids? 20% of the kids? 会推动百分之10的孩子? 20?
All of them? 还是全部?
I don't know 我不知道
I think we need to, attack the problem at a ... much younger age ... 我觉得我们要, 针对更低年龄层的人, 去实施这个计划
the dollar will be better spent during the earlier years 钱用在更低年级的人身上, 效果更显著
So what are we going to do next year? 那我们下一年要怎么做?
What about preschool, did they find a preschool yet? 幼儿园怎样? 他们找到间幼儿园了吗?
Yea, we've got a few perschools lined up and they seem excited. 我们瞄准了几间幼儿园, 他们的态度都很活跃
So, we're talking about preschoolers ... 那, 我们在讨论幼儿园...
are we talking about taking parenting out of the hands of parents? 我们是在讨论, 把父母之职从父母身上拿走?
Or teaching the parents how to parent? Or both? 还是教父母怎么当父母? 或者两样皆考虑?
It's a little bit of both. 两者都有点
That could be fun. 这会很有趣
The way I see it, learning is like a virus. 照我看, 学习像是病毒
a virus that most adolesents don't want to catch ... 一个大多数青少年都不想感染的病毒...
... until later on in life. 要感染也要等长大点.
Next year, I'm gonna be a sophomore. 下一年,我就是高一学生了.
I'm gonna tell you, I'm doing great and I'm getting As and Bs. 我跟你说, 我会做得很好, 我会拿A和B
Next year when I'm gonna be a sophomore. 下一年我读高中的时候
If not As and Bs then straight Bs ... or Bs and Cs. 不是A和B, 也是全B... 或是B和C..
Hey, that's difficult, that's not as easy as it looks. 嘿, 这个很难的, 没有看起来那么容易
I can promise you milk and cookies, but if ... 我可以保证给你弄牛奶和曲奇, 但是如果...
... the oven is broken then you just gonna get milk. ...烤炉坏了那你只能拿牛奶.
现在是咋样? / 后记
Our incentives, unlike everyone else's, are to be honest ... 我们的激励措施, 和其他人不一样, 老实说...
If we build our reputation on, we're honest about this issue, and other issues .... 我们对这个问题和其他问题都很认真, 我们建立起名声,
... then people will believe us about everything. ...我们说什么人们都会相信
The worst thing we could do, the only way we can ruin our reputation ... 我们能做最坏的事, 去破坏自己名声...
... is by starting to take sides and fights. ...就是开始偏袒一方, 然后维护这种偏袒.
This peculiar beast, which actually has the right incentives, you just seek the truth. 这只独特的野兽, 有了正确的激励, 你就能看到真相
And not have an agenda. 只是还没有具体议程
So, I don't think, anything we've ever written or thought is gonna save ... 所以, 我觉得我们没有写什么或者想到什么, 去拯救...
any lives really, or ... make people better or smarter anyway. But ... 任何人的人生, 或者... 让人们变得更好, 让人们变得更聪明. 但是...
... we kind of give people permission to challenge conventional wisdom sometimes ... ...我们某程度上给了人们挑战传统观点的方法
And ask a different kind of questions entirely ... 去问一些全然不同的问题
and a lot of times the sort of questions you ask his children, 还有许多时候你问孩子的一些问题
and ah, people kind of chuckle at you. 人们也许会笑你
But once in a while, they turn out to be rather good. 但是有时候, 他们最后变得不错.
The problem is, as you get older, you ask them as adults in a meeting or friends, 问题是, 你长大点, 你在聚会或者朋友见面时问成年人
they'll laugh at you hard and you stop entirely. 他们会狠狠地笑你, 你就会完全停下来
And we just kind of keep doing it. 而我们没有放弃
We kind of say, what if this thing everybody think is so really isn't. 我是想说, 如果事情不是人人想的那样呢.
What if that didn't cause this, what if this cause it? 要是这个没引起那个? 要是引起了呢?
I think that's just need to be a lot more permission for people to think like that 我觉得, 应该找些方法, 让人们都有这样的思考.
Total bs, was't it? 全是废话, 是不是?
-=End of movie=- -=剧终=- 本片在IMDb的评分并不高,你觉得呢?